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How the Playoff Committee uses Data to Place Teams
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:11 pm
First off, let me say I hate that the committee has no firm, fixed, transparent criteria that one can easily judge and see how they got what they got. I would prefer a list of the criteria, even it was 100 items long, with a weighting that would require a computer to keep track of it all, but at least all would know and could figure out what is going on, but that’s not what we have.
The CFP committee uses a company called SportSource Analytics to provide them with data to compare and rank the teams. If you have ever looked up college football team stats on https://cfbstats.com/, you are using their data.
One could compare two teams, say Wisconsin and Florida just using the data at that website.
Their standard data sheet for Florida is at this link: https://cfbstats.com/2019/team/235/index.html
and here’s the one for Wisconsin: https://cfbstats.com/2019/team/796/index.html
You could look at the two of them side by side, and if you did so, you’d see that Wisconsin is better in more rows than Florida.
But that’s tedious just for two teams, and almost impossible for 25, so instead go straight to the SportSource Analytics Rankings Tool (at least the free one open to the public, I’m sure the committee’s version has more bells and whistles) and compare for yourself at https://sportsourceanalytics.com/rankingtool/
In the base ranking there are 13 attributes that can be weighted however you want. In the advanced setting there are 19.
Here is what their default advanced comparison looks like with all 19 sliders at the default 50%
Notice Wisconsin is #4 and Florida is #11 using this advanced base ranking.
But the committee does not just look at this, they play around with settings and look at many different things.
For instance, what is strength of schedule? it comes out WI #9, FL #36 (set all sliders to 0, put SoS at 100)
If you just hit reset to go back to the unadvanced base comparison (all 13 sliders at 50), it’s WI #5, FL #18.
You can do this for any one, or any number of parameters and see what the committee sees.
Say you want to look at just the 4 opponent adjusted rankings (Opp. Adj. Scoring Offense/ Defense & Total Offense/Total Defense) in their advance set, set all the other 15 sliders to 0, the result is WI #3, FL #5
You can play around all day long and Wisconsin beats Flotida more often than not on their ranking tool. That’s why, with the exact same 10-2 record, Wisconsin ends up ranked one spot ahead of Florida.
This is the paint by numbers comparison approach they use, we just never know what sure what numbers they value more than others and how consistent they are.
The CFP committee uses a company called SportSource Analytics to provide them with data to compare and rank the teams. If you have ever looked up college football team stats on https://cfbstats.com/, you are using their data.
One could compare two teams, say Wisconsin and Florida just using the data at that website.
Their standard data sheet for Florida is at this link: https://cfbstats.com/2019/team/235/index.html
and here’s the one for Wisconsin: https://cfbstats.com/2019/team/796/index.html
You could look at the two of them side by side, and if you did so, you’d see that Wisconsin is better in more rows than Florida.
But that’s tedious just for two teams, and almost impossible for 25, so instead go straight to the SportSource Analytics Rankings Tool (at least the free one open to the public, I’m sure the committee’s version has more bells and whistles) and compare for yourself at https://sportsourceanalytics.com/rankingtool/
In the base ranking there are 13 attributes that can be weighted however you want. In the advanced setting there are 19.
Here is what their default advanced comparison looks like with all 19 sliders at the default 50%
Notice Wisconsin is #4 and Florida is #11 using this advanced base ranking.
But the committee does not just look at this, they play around with settings and look at many different things.
For instance, what is strength of schedule? it comes out WI #9, FL #36 (set all sliders to 0, put SoS at 100)
If you just hit reset to go back to the unadvanced base comparison (all 13 sliders at 50), it’s WI #5, FL #18.
You can do this for any one, or any number of parameters and see what the committee sees.
Say you want to look at just the 4 opponent adjusted rankings (Opp. Adj. Scoring Offense/ Defense & Total Offense/Total Defense) in their advance set, set all the other 15 sliders to 0, the result is WI #3, FL #5
You can play around all day long and Wisconsin beats Flotida more often than not on their ranking tool. That’s why, with the exact same 10-2 record, Wisconsin ends up ranked one spot ahead of Florida.
This is the paint by numbers comparison approach they use, we just never know what sure what numbers they value more than others and how consistent they are.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:14 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
INB4 LSU fans come in and defend one of their rivals
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:27 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
LSU at 6 is laughable. But to have 2 loss Wisconsin and 2 loss Bama ahead of LSU is utterly ridiculous.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:31 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
hey dumbass... Things like winning percentage and strength of schedule should matter 50x more than third down efficiency defense... I couldn't give a frick less how good Wisconsin is on 3rd down vs Mich st, Northwestern and Purdue
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:36 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
They have to use these b/c they have idiots on the committee that aren't capable of actually watching college football games and coming to conclusions using their own mind with stats backing it up.
The professor from Arizona, Ronnie Lott, a COS Army guy, a bunch of athletic directors who are busy worrying about their own schools. What makes them experts on deciding who's the best football team? Do you think all of the committee members watch every game played by the top teams, or do they just meet up on Tuesday and play with some sliders on stats and make their decisions that way, just like a computer would?
The professor from Arizona, Ronnie Lott, a COS Army guy, a bunch of athletic directors who are busy worrying about their own schools. What makes them experts on deciding who's the best football team? Do you think all of the committee members watch every game played by the top teams, or do they just meet up on Tuesday and play with some sliders on stats and make their decisions that way, just like a computer would?
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:45 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
Bless your soul if you think they go that in depth into it.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:46 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
Is this the new Buckeye circle jerk thread?
Posted on 12/4/19 at 4:57 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
I hate to shite on all the effort you put in here.. but any metric or statistic that shows LSU at #6 below Bama and Wisconsin just proves that it's a metric that should be disregarded.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 8:15 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
quote:This make sense, this site says Tulsa has the 6th toughest schedule in the nation, tougher than Ohio St and LSU.
The CFP committee uses a company called SportSource Analytics to provide them with data to compare and rank the teams.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 8:20 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
Including all off those stats equally is absurd because some are obviously way more relevant and important than others, and a few of them are downright contradictory.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 5:27 am to Bucks2TigerFan
Metrics, analytics, data analysis and modeling are impactful, but you can still reach any outcome desired depending upon the variables, weighting and filters selected or omitted.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 10:59 am to Bucks2TigerFan
Thats a cool website, although its pretty clear that some of these are redundant.
Rushing offense, passing offense, total offense.
Rushing defense, passing defense, total defense.
etc.
But, you can play with the numbers by removing the redundancies and see what happens so that makes it pretty interesting.
ETA: or you could play committee and play with the numbers until you get rankings that you like. Then, talk up the value of those numbers.
Rushing offense, passing offense, total offense.
Rushing defense, passing defense, total defense.
etc.
But, you can play with the numbers by removing the redundancies and see what happens so that makes it pretty interesting.
ETA: or you could play committee and play with the numbers until you get rankings that you like. Then, talk up the value of those numbers.
This post was edited on 12/5/19 at 11:20 am
Posted on 12/5/19 at 12:09 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
They use Toonces for LSU's logo. Discredits the whole thing.
LSU needs to start suing people that do that. We have completely stopped using that logo.
LSU needs to start suing people that do that. We have completely stopped using that logo.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 12:19 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
I think Vegas should handle an official strength of schedule used for these things.
Basically create a line for each team vs. every other team in the country at a neutral site. From there you could really develop a solid SOS that updates every week. Would take a frick ton of man power, but it could be done.
There are plenty of ranked teams that would be double digit underdogs to unranked teams. This makes SOS based on rankings and predominantly own-conference based schedules almost laughable.
Basically create a line for each team vs. every other team in the country at a neutral site. From there you could really develop a solid SOS that updates every week. Would take a frick ton of man power, but it could be done.
There are plenty of ranked teams that would be double digit underdogs to unranked teams. This makes SOS based on rankings and predominantly own-conference based schedules almost laughable.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 12:34 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
quote:
Notice Wisconsin is #4 and Florida is #11 using this advanced base ranking.
You can play around all day long and Wisconsin beats Flotida more often than not on their ranking tool. That’s why, with the exact same 10-2 record, Wisconsin ends up ranked one spot ahead of Florida.
AFter playing with this, I'm okay with Wisconsin ahead of Florida
But this metric has Bama in damn near every top 5 I am adjusting with the sliders. Convince me why the committee dropped them 7 spots to number 12 (with those metrics). I'm having a hard time understanding how Bama is not even in the top 10.
It's just funny how there is no consistency, and when the committee head has been asked to clarify rankings, he uses different metrics every week, at the expense of ignoring metrics they used the previous week
For the first time, LSU has a dog in this fight, so naturally, LSU fans are a little at odds with this process.
This post was edited on 12/5/19 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:08 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
quote:
How the Playoff Committee uses Data to Place Teams
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