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An overlooked aspect of the 4th playoff spot if there is a big upset with LSU
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:43 pm
I said it once in the title and will say again to calm the LSU people off the bat- I do not think UGA will win. I think LSU will win. UGA is not as good as LSU and they are expected to win the game.
With that said, IF there is a major upset and we somehow do luck into a win SAturday (and assumign other chalk holds) you're going to have the following teams for the 4th playoff spot:
12-1 Baylor/OU, big 12 champs
12-1 Utah, pac 12 champs
12-1 LSU, non champs
At the outset LSU is at the back of the line due to not winning their conference, which is somethign the committee has proven time and time again it looks at VERY highly. However, every other aspect would be in LSUs favor. Better wins (by a frick ton at that), better loss, higher ranking all season, better metrics across the board. I mean pretty much any other category you can use to rank LSU would have the edge over all 3.
BUT...waht I think is getting overlooked and not even mentioned anywhere is the rematch factor. We've only seen 1 instance of 2 conference teams making the playoffs, but the teams hadn't played that season so it was a bit of an easier pill to swallow. How willing is the commitee going to be to:
1)Tell UGA "hey congrats on beating LSU to win the SEC, but you still have to play them again next month"
2)Tell both of the other conference winners "hey congrats on winning your conference with the same record as LSU, but we're giving them a do-over to beat the team they just lost to"
That's what I can't shake. I wholeheartedly believe with full confidence that LSU is a much better team than any of those 3 and would blow them doors off any of them if they played each other. I just don't know if the committee is going to want to see a rematch of 2 teams that just played in December since we already know the outcome of what would happen if they played.
With that said, IF there is a major upset and we somehow do luck into a win SAturday (and assumign other chalk holds) you're going to have the following teams for the 4th playoff spot:
12-1 Baylor/OU, big 12 champs
12-1 Utah, pac 12 champs
12-1 LSU, non champs
At the outset LSU is at the back of the line due to not winning their conference, which is somethign the committee has proven time and time again it looks at VERY highly. However, every other aspect would be in LSUs favor. Better wins (by a frick ton at that), better loss, higher ranking all season, better metrics across the board. I mean pretty much any other category you can use to rank LSU would have the edge over all 3.
BUT...waht I think is getting overlooked and not even mentioned anywhere is the rematch factor. We've only seen 1 instance of 2 conference teams making the playoffs, but the teams hadn't played that season so it was a bit of an easier pill to swallow. How willing is the commitee going to be to:
1)Tell UGA "hey congrats on beating LSU to win the SEC, but you still have to play them again next month"
2)Tell both of the other conference winners "hey congrats on winning your conference with the same record as LSU, but we're giving them a do-over to beat the team they just lost to"
That's what I can't shake. I wholeheartedly believe with full confidence that LSU is a much better team than any of those 3 and would blow them doors off any of them if they played each other. I just don't know if the committee is going to want to see a rematch of 2 teams that just played in December since we already know the outcome of what would happen if they played.
This post was edited on 12/1/19 at 2:44 pm
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Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:46 pm to WG_Dawg
I think LSU makes it in with a loss as long as UGA does not blow them out.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:46 pm to WG_Dawg
Tl:dr
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:48 pm to WG_Dawg
Unless LSU gets blown out, it would look horrible if the committee kept LSU out. Our one loss would be a LOT better than losing to USC or K State, plus we’ve look like a more “complete” team than Utah and Oklahoma, with a much more challenging schedule. The committee would be contradicting their own “complete team” BS by keeping us out.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:48 pm to TKLSUMD
Agree. LSU is in for sure
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:50 pm to 1BIGTigerFan
6 paragraphs is too much for you? 
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:50 pm to Itwasacleantackle
quote:
Our one loss would be a LOT better than losing to USC or K State, plus we’ve look like a more “complete” team than Utah and Oklahoma, with a much more challenging schedule.
I agree with all of this, and said as much in OP. I just can't get over the fact that we would have 2 of the 4 teams in the playoffs that have just played each other 3 weeks before the playoffs begin.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:56 pm to WG_Dawg
A blowout loss to UGA isnt as embarrassing as a home loss to muschamp
Posted on 12/1/19 at 2:58 pm to WG_Dawg
This is why I didn't want Bama in the 4th spot so I guess I'd be a hypocrite to say Lsu should be in with a loss to Georgia. But, bama didn't beat 1 ranked team whereas Lsu, not counting Texas still beat Florida Bama and Auburn pretty much all of the tough sec teams. If I was a Georgia fan I'd say you had your shot. Either way LSU is a special team this year that won't be denied.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:02 pm to WG_Dawg
According to this if Utah or Oklahoma wins out and LSU loses then LSU is out.
Committee isn’t leaving out two conference winners with 1 loss.
Committee isn’t leaving out two conference winners with 1 loss.
This post was edited on 12/1/19 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:05 pm to WG_Dawg
I think it would be:
1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. LSU
No rematch unless both teams win first round. If that were to happen, I don't see how there's an argument that a 13-1 Georgia with wins over LSU and Clemson shouldn't play for the NC. Of course LSU will have beaten the number one seed, so I don't see an issue there either, even if some people don't like it.
That being said, doubtful that will happen. Odds are LSU wins SECCG.
1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. LSU
No rematch unless both teams win first round. If that were to happen, I don't see how there's an argument that a 13-1 Georgia with wins over LSU and Clemson shouldn't play for the NC. Of course LSU will have beaten the number one seed, so I don't see an issue there either, even if some people don't like it.
That being said, doubtful that will happen. Odds are LSU wins SECCG.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:10 pm to FlexDawg
quote:no, they aren't
Committee isn’t leaving out two conference winners with 1 loss.
and they shouldn't
LSU is likely to win on Saturday, but those that think we have zero chance are fooling themselves
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:13 pm to dcbl
If LSU loses a close one to UGA they are most certainly in. That said, Joe Burrow will never lose another game at LSU.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:14 pm to WG_Dawg
Georgia wins and they're in.
But that won't happen. And if they do, they get run by Ohio St or Clemson or us if we play twice.
But that won't happen. And if they do, they get run by Ohio St or Clemson or us if we play twice.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:16 pm to dcbl
quote:
LSU is likely to win on Saturday, but those that think we have zero chance are fooling themselves
what are you talking about? UGA isn't involved in this, if we win we are obviously in. Like there is not any conceivable, remote possibility that we woudln't be in.
The question is if LSU woudl still be in.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:31 pm to WG_Dawg
LSU is 100% in regardless of Saturday’s outcome.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:33 pm to WG_Dawg
You don’t have to issue a disclaimer. IMO, the #4 team winning a conference game at home is hardly a huge upset.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:37 pm to CBandits82
quote:
LSU is 100% in regardless of Saturday’s outcome.
they very well may be in, I'm not saying "they will be out with a lsos", I'm just saying it's not near the slam dunk LSU fans think it is. If they do make it I guarantee you the committee will come out that sunday and say somethign liek "this is without question the hardest decision we've had to make in 6 years".
Only 2 teams out of 20 have made the playoffs without winning their conference, and both times it was because 2 P5 champs had 2 losses. No team has lost their CCG then still made the playoffs. No team has made the playoffs to face a team they've already lost to. LSU has a toooooooooon going for it, that's impossible to deny, but there's also a lot of precedent for them not making it as well.
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:38 pm to WG_Dawg
UGA is not beating LSU, so none of this shite matters!
Posted on 12/1/19 at 3:39 pm to WG_Dawg
If Ohio St would lose to Wisconsin do you think the committee would leave out Ohio St? Hell no!
So they shouldn’t leave out LSU if they lose to Georgia
So they shouldn’t leave out LSU if they lose to Georgia
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