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Bad losses don’t matter to the CFP committee
Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:33 am
Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:33 am
Apparently a good win does. They’ve said as much with this week’s poll.
A team has one of the worst losses in the top 15, losing to a 4-6 team at home that lost to App st. Yet the CFP committee chose to rank them ahead of Alabama. This can only mean that their Florida win carried a lot of weight, because the losses aren’t even close to comparable.
To me, this is bad news for Alabama and good news for a one loss Oregon or Oklahoma. Again, using the rational for committee’s decision to rank the team referenced above ahead of Alabama as evidence, if Oregon and Oklahoma finish with one loss they would more than likely have beaten a top ten team to get there. Alabama just doesn’t have a game on their schedule to make up for this.
Alabama could potentially give Auburn their 4th loss end the season having no wins over a top 25 team. If they get in over a one loss conference champion with that resume then Bama privilege is a real thing.
A team has one of the worst losses in the top 15, losing to a 4-6 team at home that lost to App st. Yet the CFP committee chose to rank them ahead of Alabama. This can only mean that their Florida win carried a lot of weight, because the losses aren’t even close to comparable.
To me, this is bad news for Alabama and good news for a one loss Oregon or Oklahoma. Again, using the rational for committee’s decision to rank the team referenced above ahead of Alabama as evidence, if Oregon and Oklahoma finish with one loss they would more than likely have beaten a top ten team to get there. Alabama just doesn’t have a game on their schedule to make up for this.
Alabama could potentially give Auburn their 4th loss end the season having no wins over a top 25 team. If they get in over a one loss conference champion with that resume then Bama privilege is a real thing.
This post was edited on 11/16/19 at 9:45 am
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Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:35 am to Buga
Auburn will still be top 25 four losses.
Oh and oF cOuRsE tHeY aRe GoNNa DRoP iF tHey LoSe to Us
Oh and oF cOuRsE tHeY aRe GoNNa DRoP iF tHey LoSe to Us
Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:41 am to Buga
What matters is having more than one loss. That has been shown to matter quite a bit.
Auburn would've gotten in with two in 2017, but they had to beat two no. 1s and then beat one of them again (which they didn't do) to get there. And one of their regular season losses was to a playoff team.
I think what the committee is saying is that two quality wins can negate that loss to a great extent. None of this really matters. The only ranking that matters is in December. It just assures UGA fans that if they win out, they are in. I never really doubted that anyway.
And just so you know, I'm not by any means banking on winning out. Feel it's far less likely this year than the last two.
Auburn would've gotten in with two in 2017, but they had to beat two no. 1s and then beat one of them again (which they didn't do) to get there. And one of their regular season losses was to a playoff team.
I think what the committee is saying is that two quality wins can negate that loss to a great extent. None of this really matters. The only ranking that matters is in December. It just assures UGA fans that if they win out, they are in. I never really doubted that anyway.
And just so you know, I'm not by any means banking on winning out. Feel it's far less likely this year than the last two.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:10 am to Buga
That's total bs. OSU lost 1 game last year and won the conference. THEY were left out because of a bad loss. It was the same thd year before.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:31 am to Buga
There is also a difference in losing straight up and losing how we lost.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:42 am to Buga
quote:
Georgia has one of the worst losses in the top 15
We also have two of the best wins of anyone in the top 15. Maybe that carries more positive weight than the one terrible loss.
What quality wins do Oregon, Oklahoma or Bama have right now?
Posted on 11/16/19 at 7:10 am to Buga
quote:
Georgia has one of the worst losses in the top 15, losing to a 4-6 team at home that lost to App st. Yet the CFP committee chose to rank them ahead of Alabama. This can only mean that their Florida win carried a lot of weight, because the losses aren’t even close to comparable.
Or....hear me out, now...it could be because we have beaten two ranked teams. Two teams that were ranked in the top 10 when the game was played. Granted, I prefer to go by end of year rankings to gauge SOS, but one is still ranked #11 and the other #17.
Nothing against Alabama, but they have not played a ranked team yet, and will probably only play Auburn while ranked....but so will Georgia.
See what happens when you fixate on one aspect and throw out other aspects? You would have a point if only one thing mattered. Funny how LSU fans like to harp on Alabama's weak schedule most of the time, then throw it out at other times.
quote:
To me, this is bad news for Alabama and good news for a one loss Oregon or Oklahoma.
It could spell trouble for Oregon because of their schedule, but Oklahoma will be fine with their schedule...if they win out.
quote:This is a legit point.
Alabama could potentially give Auburn their 4th loss end the season having no wins over a top 25 team. If they get in over a one loss conference champion with that resume then Bama privilege is a real thing.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 8:12 am to Buga
App State isn't that bad of a loss for Scar, App State is ranked. The embarrassing loss for Scar is Tennessee and Missouri lol
Posted on 11/16/19 at 8:18 am to Buga
quote:
Bad losses don’t matter to the CFP committee
I dont know how you can miss such an obvious point.
Good wins matter. The losses look the same. Bama is where they are because they lack the good wins.
Why is this important?
Because it encourages better scheduling. And that is better for college football and college football fans.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 8:25 am to Buga
quote:I agree. Uga's wins outweighed their loss to USCe when it came to comparing them and Bama, even with Bama's road win over the same USCe team to consider.
Bad losses don’t matter to the CFP committee
Bama will not finish the season with a quality win. Best path is to hold out Tua to heal, win the next 2 games with a backup QB, win big over Auburn with Tua.
They also need Big 12 and Pac 12 champs to have 2+ losses and LSU to win the SEC. Then, I think they have a good shot at the playoffs.
But, honestly, they had their shot... hurt QB or not. Not a championship level defense and abysmal STs outside of the return game. 11-1 and a NY6 bowl berth would be a great year. Highlights how spoiled Bama fans have become that that is a down year.
2020 will be worse. But. 2021 should be a very good team. Especially with all the talented true freshmen contributing this year on defense.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 8:58 am to Buga
This committee has gone full eye test. Dont expect any consistency to be identifiable with best win worst loss sos etc.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 10:27 am to Buga
LSU just needs to worry about beating Uga in the championship because the committee won’t be taking a two loss SEC champion, and your chances would be hurt with one loss and no SEC title. You all are not Bama and get a pass.
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