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CFP Playoff Hopefuls Resume Comparison (using 11/12 CFP rankings)
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:11 pm
The table compares the resumes of the 11 teams who have 0 or 1 loss and have a chance to make the playoff.
Hopefully most of it is obvious, but I’ll say a few things to help read it.
The best value in a column has a dark green background; the worst value has a dark red background.
The more dark green you see in a team’s data, the better they do overall. Likewise the more dark red you see in a team’s data, the worse they do overall.
I know it's busy, but I think the colors help digest the info better.
In the two columns where it uses rank (Opponent Record and Scoring Margin,) that is the rank out of all 130 FBS teams. In the two columns where it shows teams left to play (Ranked and Unranked,) the team bolded is this weekend’s game.
The data used are things mentioned over the years by the committee that they look at. That includes wins over ranked teams, the win-loss vs. ranked teams, the opponents’ record, the win-loss vs. bowl eligible teams, and the win-loss vs FBS teams with a winning record.
As one can easily see, LSU has the most green in their data, and easily deserve the best ranking. Likewise Baylor is deserves its low ranking. Baylor’s opponents have a .500 record, worst of the bunch, although Bama and Oklahoma at .513 and .516 aren’t much better, and Bama just played 9-0 LSU; imagine how bad it was before that.
And Clemson should thank its lucky stars that they pass the victory margin eye test, because they’ve played the fewest winning teams, the fewest bowl eligible teams, and no ranked teams. Of course, in the no ranked teams, they are joined by Bama, Oregon, and Utah. Georgia and Utah have the only unranked losses.
The scoring margin eye test also helps Bama as well, and in fact, with just a few exceptions, like LSU’s slam dunk of 4 ranked wins, and Georgia’s 2 highly ranked wins, the CFP ranking order follows the scoring margin almost better than anything else.
Right now, there are 53 bowl eligible teams, which is about 40% of 130 FBS teams, so it’s not all that exclusive, yet Clemson has only played 1 bowl eligible team, and 5 others have only played 2, one would have expected about 4 at this point in the year. I know an undefeated Clemson probably makes it, but they will likely have the worst resume of any CFP team in any year.
Most of these teams still have a chance to play one more ranked team in their championship game that’s not shown in the table, although Bama’s chance is very, very improbable.
Oregon, surprisingly, has more green in its row than I expected, so if they win out, would be well primed to jump into the top 4. The problem both Baylor and Oklahoma have is that even if one wins out and gets 2 Top 15 victories, their other ranked wins are so lowly ranked that they could fall below #25 and not be counted any more.
Bama needs chaos to get in.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:25 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
Scoring margin is so bogus when the SOS is so different.
Shouldn't be included.
ETA:
Also any analysis of opponents should remove the team being analyzed from opponent stats. Record sticks out there.
And if you have to keep scoring margin, you should do scoring margin difference vs. average scoring margin against other teams the opponents have played.
Shouldn't be included.
ETA:
Also any analysis of opponents should remove the team being analyzed from opponent stats. Record sticks out there.
And if you have to keep scoring margin, you should do scoring margin difference vs. average scoring margin against other teams the opponents have played.
This post was edited on 11/14/19 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:27 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
1 loss Utah vs 1 loss Oregon - winner is in.
But if Utah or Oregon lose and that matchup isn’t #5 vs #6, then I think Oklahoma has a shot.
#10 OU vs #13 Baylor this week.
- If OU wins they move to #6-8.
Baylor loses they fall to #15-20.
#22 Ok State (will be 8-3 and ranked in the teens) in two weeks - say it’s #7 OU vs #18 Ok State.
- If OU wins, probably in the Top 6.
- Baylor and Texas play next week (will be a Top 20 matchup) - winner moves to around #12-10.
#6 OU vs #12 Baylor/Texas for another quality win and looking hot.
But I think Oregon/Utah is #5/#6 and the winner gets in.
But if Utah or Oregon lose and that matchup isn’t #5 vs #6, then I think Oklahoma has a shot.
#10 OU vs #13 Baylor this week.
- If OU wins they move to #6-8.
Baylor loses they fall to #15-20.
#22 Ok State (will be 8-3 and ranked in the teens) in two weeks - say it’s #7 OU vs #18 Ok State.
- If OU wins, probably in the Top 6.
- Baylor and Texas play next week (will be a Top 20 matchup) - winner moves to around #12-10.
#6 OU vs #12 Baylor/Texas for another quality win and looking hot.
But I think Oregon/Utah is #5/#6 and the winner gets in.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:28 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
They are calling it a curriculum vitae now.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:32 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Scoring margin is so bogus when the SOS is so different.
Shouldn't be included.
I agree, but I've read that the committee doesn't rely all that much on advance analytics.
Supposedly, they get their data from SportSourceAnalytics, and if you look at their website it's pretty basic.
The basketball committee actually publishes their team sheets so you can see what they are looking at. I would love to see the CFP committee equivalent.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:35 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
Those stats make Clemson and Bama look bad.
Clemson’s only saving grace is they haven't lost. Yet
Clemson’s only saving grace is they haven't lost. Yet
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:37 pm to WilliamTaylor21
quote:
1 loss Utah vs 1 loss Oregon - winner is in.
Agree with you on the Pac-12 champion.
As for as the Big-12 champion, I didn't realize just how weak their schedules were, I think they have a tougher job getting into the top 4.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:39 pm to yatesdog38
Just watch and see... Bama wins out, they're in.
Do I think UA deserves to be in? Completely different discussion.
So frick all the haters. frick all the ones who don't want UA there... the tears are delicious.
Bwa HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA !!
Do I think UA deserves to be in? Completely different discussion.
So frick all the haters. frick all the ones who don't want UA there... the tears are delicious.
Bwa HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA !!
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:39 pm to Cadello
quote:
Those stats make Clemson and Bama look bad.
Clemson’s only saving grace is they haven't lost. Yet
All both of them have going right now is eye test, not resume at all. If clemson makes it, they'll have the worse resume of any of the 24 teams that will have made it yet.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:40 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
If they want scoring margin to be taken into consideration, cool... But God have mercy on the FCS and shitty Group of 5 teams that those schools are playing.
It should not be a factor at all
It should not be a factor at all
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:43 pm to GeauxPack81
quote:
If they want scoring margin to be taken into consideration, cool... But God have mercy on the FCS and shitty Group of 5 teams that those schools are playing.
It should not be a factor at all.
Scoring margin is not a factor, in fact the committee is NOT supposed to consider it.
I just included it because I think scoring margin is the easiest way to quantify eye test, and/or game control that they say all the time.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 5:44 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
A&M will be ranked when LSU plays them.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 6:00 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
quote:
Bama needs chaos to get in.
That’s all I read and all that matters.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 6:09 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
ohio state should b out just because 31-0. you remember that game ,don't ya ? if i were you , i would keep crying to anyone who would listen to me. keep clemson out, please ! pathetic.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 6:17 pm to cutigersfan
quote:
ohio state should b out just because 31-0. you remember that game ,don't ya
Did you check your calendar recently? It's 2019, not 2016. I think if Ohio State meets Clemson this year, the tables will be reversed. If Clemson makes the playoff this year, they don't make it out of round 1, whether they play OSU or LSU.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 6:24 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
If Baylor and Minnesota win this weekend, sports media is going to start freaking out! The possibility of Baylor and Minny being undefeated at the end of the year, will have the hyperbole off the charts! Everything else will fade to the background.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 6:31 pm to vegas-tiger
quote:
If Baylor and Minnesota win this weekend, sports media is going to start freaking out! The possibility of Baylor and Minny being undefeated at the end of the year, will have the hyperbole off the charts! Everything else will fade to the background.
If Minnesota wins this weekend, they might climb to #5, but I don't see Baylor getting higher than #8 if they win.
Don't forget #4 Georgia is at #12 Auburn, they might drown out some of the Baylor hype, since, either one winning will have a better resume than Baylor.
Posted on 11/14/19 at 7:14 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
A better comparison could be made by looking at opponent’s records after removing the loss incurred by them if we’re comparing strength of opponents.
For instance, LSU opponent’s record is 47-36. Since we’re comparing their strengths to another team, use 47-27 record total (dropping the 9 losses incurred by playing LSU).
Opp. Record is total record of all opponents minus the losses. eg. LSU opponents record is 47-36. LSU has 9 wins so opponents gained one loss each from playing LSU. Adjusting record is 47-27.
Team: Opp. Record
8-1 Oregon: 50-28 (64%)
9-0 LSU: 47-27 (63%)
9-0 Ohio State: 46-28 (62%)
10-0 Clemson: 45-38 (62%)
9-0 Minnesota: 43-33 (56%)
8-1 Alabama: 40-37 (52%)
8-1 Oklahoma: 36-35 (51%)
For instance, LSU opponent’s record is 47-36. Since we’re comparing their strengths to another team, use 47-27 record total (dropping the 9 losses incurred by playing LSU).
Opp. Record is total record of all opponents minus the losses. eg. LSU opponents record is 47-36. LSU has 9 wins so opponents gained one loss each from playing LSU. Adjusting record is 47-27.
Team: Opp. Record
8-1 Oregon: 50-28 (64%)
9-0 LSU: 47-27 (63%)
9-0 Ohio State: 46-28 (62%)
10-0 Clemson: 45-38 (62%)
9-0 Minnesota: 43-33 (56%)
8-1 Alabama: 40-37 (52%)
8-1 Oklahoma: 36-35 (51%)
Posted on 11/14/19 at 7:32 pm to Bucks2TigerFan
Very interesting, thanks.
Clemson, Alabama, Oregon, not at all impressive
Clemson, Alabama, Oregon, not at all impressive
Posted on 11/15/19 at 7:35 am to GBJs
quote:
Just watch and see... Bama wins out, they're in.
Do I think UA deserves to be in? Completely different discussion.
So frick all the haters. frick all the ones who don't want UA there... the tears are delicious.
So you're claiming it's the old most deserving vs. best team argument.
I don't think Bama is one of the best 4 teams, and even if they were, sometimes the best team isn't the most deserving. If you can't step up and win the game that counts, why do you think you deserve a do over?
I guess every game doesn't count in Bama Land.
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