SEC Quarterback Rankings : OAYP

2019 SEC QB Rankings : Jim Johnson, Southern Pigskin

Long description of the OAYP formula per Johnson

Interesting look at returners at various positions. Not sure how great a metric it is, but it's at least a more specific way to look at returning starters and units.

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The basic premise is to cross the efficiency measure of the former, but across all positions, with the value principles of the latter -- hopefully as a way of more accurately depicting a given team’s returning production. Returning good players is more valuable than returning only average or subpar players, and not all production is created equal, so this should ideally prove to be more predictive than simply looking at the raw number of returning starters or the percentages of returning production.

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1. Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) (3.15)
2. Jake Fromm (Georgia) (1.90)
3. Nick Starkel (TAMU 2017) (Arkansas) (0.52)
4. Feleipe Franks (Florida) (-0.14)
5. Jake Bentley (South Carolina) (-0.32)
6. Joe Burrow (LSU) (-0.40)
7. Kellen Mond (TAMU) (-0.57)
8. Jarrett Guarantano (VOLS) (-0.59)
9. Terry Wilson (Kentucky) (-0.72)
10. Keytaon Thompson (2017) (MSU) (-0.81)
11. Ben Hicks (SMU) (Arkansas) (-0.97)
12. Kelly Bryant (Clemson 2017) (Missouri) (-1.05)
13. Riley Neal (Ball State) (Vanderbilt) (-1.20)

*Published before Stevens transferred to MSU

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I’ll preface this by stating that the marginal OAYP scores for the SEC quarterbacks are skewed by having two of probably the five best quarterbacks in the entire country at the top. As a result, the other qualifying signal callers’ marginal scores are almost entirely negative. I can all but guarantee that when we look at their marginal ratings against all qualifying returnees at QB that the numbers will go up across the board.

In the meantime, though, there is still value in evaluating quarterbacks against their SEC counterparts, only within the context of the league, given that it is those players against whom they will primarily be competing.

You won’t be surprised at the top, but after that, it gets interesting. We’ll tier them out into ‘superstars’ (marginal OAYP >1), ‘average to above average’ (in the 50th percentile or better), ‘not as good as we thought?’, and potential breakout stars (players that didn’t get enough reps to qualify, but posted high OAYP scores on a smaller sample size).

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