re: Thoughts on Papa Johns stock price

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It's down almost 50% from 11 months ago. The slide had already begun as the brand fell out of favor and PR problems mounted, but you might find some value if it sinks lower.

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Normally I have a policy when I'm buying stocks. Never try to catch falling knives.

Papa John's is starting to look really tempting, but I think it's still a risky buy right now. I think it's gonna bottom out around the mid 20s tbh, but even then, I don't think it's a homerun.

The problem with this company is that they don't have huge profit margins even when their gross sales are peaking. They spend more on production than their competitors, so they need to outsell them and right now, they're not doing that. They'll be back, but it could take a long time, and there's also the possibility John says frick it and sells his shares and moves on to another business.

I bought 200 shares of Domino's in 2011 at around $40, obviously I am happy with that decision. At that point, they were launching an aggressive new marketing campaign, they were way ahead of Pizza Hut and Papa John's in easy ordering technology.

There was a Domino's store around the corner from my apartment in Chesapeake, and it was going gangbusters. Every day I drove by and there were lines of people waiting to pick up their online orders, delivery drivers were rushing in and out all day. They had added oven baked sandwiches to their menu, and they were selling like hotcakes.

I saw the value irl, I didn't need to analyze the data, it was easy to see where they were going. Only wish I had looked at them in 2008 when they were at $3 a share. I'd be posting this from an island in Tahiti, while getting a blowjob from an OT 9.

If I were to buy Papa John's, I'd need to see more than a low stock price, I'd need to see something that makes me feel like I'd regret not being in on this.