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Which Schools Might We Compete for a HC With This Year?

Posted on 10/8/15 at 10:21 pm
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 10/8/15 at 10:21 pm
Hypothetically, IF Spurrier retires this year, what other schools will we be competing with in the HC search?

Texas
Maryland
Iowa St
UVA
Tennessee
Miami
Arkansas
Auburn
Oregon
Va Tech
Nebraska
Georgia (just b/c his seat is always hot, but they'll never get rid of him.)

Am I missing anyone (except don't say someone like Purdue or UCF, or New Mexico St., b/c they could never pull anyone we would want?)'


Everyone made good points, so let's switch things up a little bit, If you had to put the chances of these schools looking for a HC after this season into 4 categories, how would it look?


Likely ( > 75%)
Maryland
Iowa St
Illinois

Somewhat Likely (50%-74%)
Texas
UVA
Tennessee

Somewhat Unlikely (25% - 49%)
Miami
Arkansas
Auburn
Nebraska

Not Likely ( < 24%)
Oregon
Georgia
Va Tech
This post was edited on 10/9/15 at 7:54 am
Posted by Cockopotamus
Member since Jan 2013
16000 posts
Posted on 10/8/15 at 10:34 pm to
I don't think that the Texas, Tennessee, Arkansas or Nebraska jobs will be open because the buyouts are huge, although I'm just assuming the Nebraska buyout is.

I don't think Auburn, Oregon or Georgia will fire their HC's after this season unless they lose out.

Maryland is a definite

Not familiar with Miami, Iowa State or UVA's posistion

Beamer can retire from Virginia Tech any year he wants

I think it is safe to say we won't be competing with another SEC school except maybe Vandy
Posted by KingSlayer
Member since May 2015
2886 posts
Posted on 10/8/15 at 11:32 pm to
If nothing else, due to political correctness pressure, I assume Strong will be at Texas for at least one more year. I don't think Tennessee will get rid of Butch yet either as long as they get to a bowl, which they will. Auburn is not going to run off Gus, he's not Chizik. Oregon isn't going to run their guy off one year after playing for the title. Arkansas can't do better than what they have now. England will cast out the royal family before Georgia finds the stones to fire Richt, he's a good christain man! Nebraska won't fire the guy after one year. Va Tech will let Beamer do whatever he wants. Vandy doesn't care enough about football to run Mason off.

Maryland, Virginia, Iowa St, and Miami should all fire their coach. Washington State should get rid of the pirate. But honestly, if we have an opening, we should be the best available job. Some may argue Miami just due to location for recruiting, but they aren't Miami of 15 years ago.
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
61088 posts
Posted on 10/9/15 at 4:53 am to
quote:

If nothing else, due to political correctness pressure, I assume Strong will be at Texas for at least one more year.


This really is the question and the glare will be bright if they fire their 1st black coach in year 2. Strong may get to year 4 before they can fire him and he would have to get no bowl in the meantime. In his 1st year he did get them to a bowl. If they beat Oklahoma but wind up 4-8 (beat Kansas and Iowa State as well) a Sooner win might help greatly.
Posted by RoyalAir
Detroit
Member since Dec 2012
7383 posts
Posted on 10/9/15 at 6:29 am to
quote:

Some may argue Miami just due to location for recruiting, but they aren't Miami of 15 years ago.


The Miami administration has made a conscious effort to deemphasize the football program. I think that they're quite content to live in 6-6/7-5 land for the foreseeable future. The program was a source I'd public embarrassment for SO long, that I don't think they'll let it come back online in a big way for a while.

I don't think Arkansas is as bad as their record, and I think Long realizes that and will keep Bert around for at least another year.

Vandy won't fire Mason, and shouldn't, after two years. He's a much better coach than he gets credit for, and he inherited a completely bare cupboard.

I'd be very surprised if Auburn fired Gus. Sure, they're crazy, but I think he's their guy at least for another year or two.

The real wildcard, to me, is UTK. The fanbase is notoriously impatient, and Jones is losing support by the hour. They had wholly unrealistic expectations from the start this year, but still. If they beat UGA this weekend, a lot of that talk will quiet down for a few moments. If the rumors that he did strike a player are proven true, then he's gone, and that is our most direct competition. UTK is in a better position to win than we are next season because they have a good bit more talent. But long-term, despite the "tradition," I think the unrealistic expectations of a very myopic fanbase works very hard against them. There's a reason they were publicly turned down by their first three candidates last go-round.

If USC has a concurrent opening with UTK, it's imperative that this job be filled quietly and quickly by what would publicly appear to be Tanner's first choice. And I think he's got his eye on Smart. I'm not saying he's my favorite candidate, but I am starting to think he's the guy Tanner is going to give the keys.
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 10/9/15 at 7:53 am to
Everyone made good points, so let's switch things up a little bit, If you had to put the chances of these schools looking for a HC after this season into 4 categories, how would it look?


Likely ( > 75%)
Maryland
Iowa St
Illinois

Somewhat Likely (50%-74%)
Texas
UVA
Tennessee

Somewhat Unlikely (25% - 49%)
Miami
Arkansas
Auburn
Nebraska

Not Likely ( < 24%)
Oregon
Georgia
Va Tech
Posted by Bluefin
The Banana Stand
Member since Apr 2011
13467 posts
Posted on 10/9/15 at 8:17 am to
I think you can remove Oregon from that list completely. They bumped up Helfrich's salary significantly this year, and will settle with a less-than-stellar season due to the "Cam-less" factor without Mariota. They're not good, but won't go winless in the PAC 12.

Maryland is going to fire Edsall this Saturday night. They've already chalked this season up as a wash, so I'm not real sure if they have any longevity plans with their interim after Edsall leaves. They may have their eyes turned on Chip Kelly right now.

I'm interested to see how this Butch-gate thing plays out at Tennessee. They won't fire him on performance alone, but they may use this physical abuse thing as a means to get him out if they have another 7-6 season. It's not likely, but I'm concerned about having Fuente in their state and doing what they can to lure him in.

As for Texas, who the hell knows with that. They'll want to get rid of Strong if this season continues to suck, but they won't be able to for many reasons. I love it. frick Texas.
Posted by Cockopotamus
Member since Jan 2013
16000 posts
Posted on 10/9/15 at 10:10 am to
Still think Texas and Tennessee are too high percentage wise.

Tennessee can't afford to fire Butch so unless his contract is nullified due to hitting a player I don't see him leaving.

Strong is only in his second year and had a kicker and a punter blow two wins against ranked teams. His 15 yard penalty against Oklahoma State late in the game was really poor coaching on his part though but I still don't see him getting fired unless they really tank
Posted by CayceCock13
Braves / Hornets / Rams Fan
Member since Oct 2012
17553 posts
Posted on 10/9/15 at 4:19 pm to
UVA & Miami probably need to be higher on the list, London has absolutely done nothing there and I'm pretty sure he was already on the hot seat coming into the year. Al Golden I believe was also in the same position and Miami seems to have enough money now to fire & hire a new guy from whats being said lately.

Nebraska shouldn't be on this list at all, they just hired Riley this past year.
Posted by 1801
Charleston
Member since Aug 2012
8560 posts
Posted on 10/9/15 at 9:10 pm to
as far as P5 schools, I see Texas parting ways with Strong once a new AD is put in place - likely after signing day.

the one that's interesting to me is Maryland, only because our apparel deal with Under Armour. UA wants Maryland to be the East coast "Oregon" for its gear and they'll throw cash at a name coach to make that happen. I would love to see Carolina move to Nike.

outside of Texas & Miami, I don't think there's another school outside of the SEC that would create any real concerns for South Carolina being unable to draw interest to a potential opening in Columbia.

I think Jones' buyout at UTK is huge at this point of his contract. If Georgia dumps Richt it would be more blasphemous than anything Tennessee did with Fulmer. in 14+ seasons, Richt is 80-35 in the SEC (140-49 overall) and had only 1 losing season in conference at 3-5.

Virginia Tech is a curious situation. Beamer stepping down could send them to the abyss much like Georgia between Dooley & Richt.

Posted by Glory, Glory
Pawleys Island, SC
Member since Nov 2012
4498 posts
Posted on 10/10/15 at 7:13 am to
quote:

Somewhat Likely (50%-74%)
Texas
UVA
Tennessee



I’d move Tejas and Tennessee to somewhat or highly unlikely. Both are locked in to huge buyouts. Next year I believe these jobs will be open.

I doubt Spurrier walks away. He is too proud to leave a program in a deep hole. It hasn’t been done in a while, but if Carolina was smart, I think they hire that “coach in waiting” to take over in 2017. We’ve seen it work and hold a program with an old head coach together, i.e. FSU Bowden/Jimbo. This is assuming their focus will be on a coordinator.

quote:

UGA


Less than 1%. UGA fans think we should go undefeated every year, but that’s not realistic. Now the butt rape from Bama hurt, but it only counts as 1 loss in the standings. If Richt loses 2-3 this year, the hot seat talk can resume. We all know he isn’t going anywhere, especially with Jacob Eason coming in next year.
Posted by TiptonInSC
Aiken, SC
Member since Dec 2012
21176 posts
Posted on 10/10/15 at 2:20 pm to
We can cross Texas off the list
Posted by RoyalAir
Detroit
Member since Dec 2012
7383 posts
Posted on 10/10/15 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

It hasn’t been done in a while, but if Carolina was smart, I think they hire that “coach in waiting” to take over in 2017.


This makes a lot of sense if Smart really is Tanner's guy. But here's the rub- that requires Spurrier to be honest, realistic, and act in the best interest of the university. I can't see a scenario where Spurrier agrees to hire whomever Tanner has tapped as next coach.

Unfortunately, we have a situation where the coach is considerably bigger than the program. If Spurrier doesn't step down, and won't capitulate to a developed succession plan, I think Tanner has to pull the trigger.

This can be very ugly from the outside. Hopefully Spurrier does what we all expect, and he retires with some dignity.
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 10/10/15 at 4:18 pm to
quote:

We can cross Texas off the list


Agreed, rivalry win may have just saved his job.
Posted by Cockopotamus
Member since Jan 2013
16000 posts
Posted on 10/10/15 at 6:20 pm to
quote:

It hasn’t been done in a while, but if Carolina was smart, I think they hire that “coach in waiting” to take over in 2017. We’ve seen it work and hold a program with an old head coach together, i.e. FSU Bowden/Jimbo. This is assuming their focus will be on a coordinator.



The reason it hasn't been done in a while is because the head coach in waiting is now subject to the same recruiting restrictions as the head coach.

Also the only successful one I can think of is Jimbo. Muschamp at UT didn't even stay around long enough to become head coach and Joker Philips at UK was a disaster
Posted by DorchesterGamecock
Bristol, CT
Member since May 2014
793 posts
Posted on 10/10/15 at 10:15 pm to
I don't think Butch was going to be fired.. but if he was, then I think Butch may have won himself another year with the UGA win..
Posted by CayceCock13
Braves / Hornets / Rams Fan
Member since Oct 2012
17553 posts
Posted on 10/11/15 at 5:18 pm to
USCw just shot up the list. Sark apparently showed up drunk to work, AD's making him go to treatment. USCw now has a interim head coach.
Posted by RoyalAir
Detroit
Member since Dec 2012
7383 posts
Posted on 10/11/15 at 6:14 pm to
quote:

USCw just shot up the list. Sark apparently showed up drunk to work, AD's making him go to treatment. USCw now has a interim head coach.



Yup. And Maryland fired Edsall, too.

At least two openings to compete with, even if UTK and UTA look safe.
Posted by goodshotred2
Columbia, SC
Member since Aug 2013
324 posts
Posted on 10/11/15 at 6:15 pm to
That's big news, especially if we both go after a younger guy. However, if Chip Kelly does get canned, I can definitely see him landing at Southern Cal. Which would be good because I don't think we'd realistically get him anyway.
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 10/12/15 at 7:53 am to
So Cal is going to get their top pick, they are off of sanctions now and have the edge on all west coast recruiting. (Except if their top pick is Saban, he won't leave bama for them. Urban might though, if the money is insane.)
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