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Does Chavis need a ball control offense, with elite Time of Possession?
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:07 pm
Ones of the Knocks consistently trotted out about the Chavis hire is that he has been protected by his team's time of possession.
I think we could go even further and say that, since correlation isn't causation, it's possible that often Chavis' elite defense getting off the field so quickly actually provided the opportunity for the offense generate more possessions/TOP.
A&M's TOP rank has averaged about 103, within 10 spots of the given data on UT.
Maybe A&M's talent isn't there yet, but I think it's pretty safe to assume significant defensive improvement.
S/O to Mirthomatic for the research.
TL/DR I know I know
quote:
Ball control may have been a priority for the LSU offense, but it often wasn't a reality.
In 2009, LSU was ranked 107 in time of possession. Chavis still had the #26 Total Defense, and the #11 Scoring Defense.
A year later in 2010, LSU was #57 in TOP, while Chavis had the #12 Total D, and the #11 Scoring D.
Even during the great defense in 2011, LSU was only #26 in TOP.
In 2012 LSU TOP 9. Total D/ScoringD #8/#12
In 2013, LSU TOP: #57, Total D/Scoring D: #15/#21
In 2014, LSU TOP: #9, Total D/Scoring D: #9/#5
LSU had elite TOP in just ONE season of Chavis' tenure.
Also, let's take a look at how Chavis did at Tennessee.
In 2008, the Vols had the #3 Total Defense, and the #10 Scoring Defense. What was their TOP ranking? #98
In 2007, their TOP ranking was even worse, at #103, but Chavis still finished 70/61 in Total/SCoring D.
2006 - TOP #105, Total D/Scoring D #50/#33
2005 - TOP #73, Total D/Scoring D #7/#16
And that's as far back as the NCAA website keeps the TOP stat.
His defensive rankings have ALWAYS outperformed his teams' TOP, often by huge margins. Point being, there is AMPLE evidence to suggest that Chavis isn't dependent on a ball control offense.
I think we could go even further and say that, since correlation isn't causation, it's possible that often Chavis' elite defense getting off the field so quickly actually provided the opportunity for the offense generate more possessions/TOP.
A&M's TOP rank has averaged about 103, within 10 spots of the given data on UT.
Maybe A&M's talent isn't there yet, but I think it's pretty safe to assume significant defensive improvement.
S/O to Mirthomatic for the research.
TL/DR I know I know
This post was edited on 7/8/15 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:10 pm to Nguyening
Chavis needs speedy line backers, a stout front 7, and a head coach that will let him do his thing.
The offense is meaningless.
The offense is meaningless.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:10 pm to Nguyening
Yes, Chavis is great.
Only exceptions are if you're in a 3rd and long situation or have a slim lead late in the game.
Only exceptions are if you're in a 3rd and long situation or have a slim lead late in the game.
This post was edited on 7/8/15 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:11 pm to Nguyening
quote:
Does Chavis need a ball control offense, with elite Time of Possession?
He needs to be able to stop teams on 3rd down.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:14 pm to Nguyening
That's actually damn impressive.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:15 pm to Nguyening
Interesting points. Obviously, we have to limit how much we can draw from the data, but I didn't know about the TOP stats.
Still the major concern.
quote:
Maybe A&M's talent isn't there yet,
Still the major concern.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:16 pm to Nguyening
Chavis just needs an offense to take the pressure off of him. Something he never got in Baton Rouge.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:19 pm to Nguyening
He needs the elimination of third downs and the ends of halves and games.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:24 pm to Nguyening
And here come the downvotes on a thoughtful, non-troll post.
How dare you show data that may go against the narrative, Nguyening!
How dare you show data that may go against the narrative, Nguyening!
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:24 pm to Nguyening
I am not sure where this TOP came from with regards to Chavis.
Chavis scheme has always hinged on the D'line and LB's IMO.
He has mostly had the speed in all years at LSU. When LSU has absolutely looked like arse was when LSU was soft in the middle.
Nothing to do with the O IMO.
Even with a shitty O, LSU had the lead vs Bama in a few years only to watch it slip away.
Chavis scheme has always hinged on the D'line and LB's IMO.
He has mostly had the speed in all years at LSU. When LSU has absolutely looked like arse was when LSU was soft in the middle.
Nothing to do with the O IMO.
Even with a shitty O, LSU had the lead vs Bama in a few years only to watch it slip away.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:24 pm to Nguyening
There is a difference between TOP and pace of play. Show me number of plays run. A game between LSU and Alabama will have 80 or so plays. A&M vs Auburn will be over 100 easily. That's alot more running for a defense to deal with when there offense gets off the field in a minute
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:26 pm to Nguyening
It's not a must for his defense to work. The point is that any defense can work with LSU's clock eating offense last season, and it kept the facade that LSU's defense has been in a steady decline the last few seasons.
-tons of blown leads in even just the past two seasons
-why is the linebacker unit LSU's most glaring weakness on defense, and always has been under Chavis? I really thought we were going to take that next step recently, but Lamar Louis and Debo are exceptional athletes that haven't gotten any better
-Brick Haley flat out was suffocating our defense. we haven't even had a good pass rush in 4 years. It would have been nice for Chavis to put down the potato salad and come to terms his bud isn't getting it done
You can quit trying to convince us Chavis is good. Everyone knows he's good, but I'm happy LSU didn't cave and offer 1.6. LSU was on a steady decline with talent, and there was no end in sight. Steele may end up a huge failure, but that won't stop me from thinking a change might have been the best if Brick Haley was going to stay
eta: tl;dr LSU's talent on defense has been on a steep decline, and I would have liked Chavis to have Brick terminated after 2013
-tons of blown leads in even just the past two seasons
-why is the linebacker unit LSU's most glaring weakness on defense, and always has been under Chavis? I really thought we were going to take that next step recently, but Lamar Louis and Debo are exceptional athletes that haven't gotten any better
-Brick Haley flat out was suffocating our defense. we haven't even had a good pass rush in 4 years. It would have been nice for Chavis to put down the potato salad and come to terms his bud isn't getting it done
You can quit trying to convince us Chavis is good. Everyone knows he's good, but I'm happy LSU didn't cave and offer 1.6. LSU was on a steady decline with talent, and there was no end in sight. Steele may end up a huge failure, but that won't stop me from thinking a change might have been the best if Brick Haley was going to stay
eta: tl;dr LSU's talent on defense has been on a steep decline, and I would have liked Chavis to have Brick terminated after 2013
This post was edited on 7/8/15 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:26 pm to Nguyening
quote:
still finished 70/61 in Total/SCoring D.
that ain't good...
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:28 pm to Nguyening
The rankings of TOP and and total/scoring D are meaningless stats without actual values. That's like saying my dick is the third biggest on this board. It's true, and illustrates that I am humble, but doesn't provide context or measurables. I'll admit this TOP point is beaten like a drum and I don't completely buy it, but this is a pretty shakey way to go about debunking it.
I'll counter by saying ags love to criticize Steele for the Clemson gave when he gave up a lot of points. That same season, Chavis allowed the same WVU team ~550 yards of total offense. They both essentially got out-schemed, but one got bailed out by special teams and an offense that could drive the field and eat clock.
I'll counter by saying ags love to criticize Steele for the Clemson gave when he gave up a lot of points. That same season, Chavis allowed the same WVU team ~550 yards of total offense. They both essentially got out-schemed, but one got bailed out by special teams and an offense that could drive the field and eat clock.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:29 pm to Nguyening
#inbLSUfanaskswhatyourbuttholesmellslike
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:30 pm to Nguyening
Given that Chavis has never been a head coach and thus has always gone with the offense that was in place, I think this question is better asked of Will Muschamp-- who has essentially been protected and had his defensive statistics padded by a ball control offense his whole career with the exception of his time at Texas-- where the offense became less and less explosive and more and more ball control the longer he stayed on the job. Then he goes to Florida and despite their being some elite Spread pieces in place procedes to decimate a program with his pig headed and moronic insistence on running clock and playing for field position.
Hell, I think Auburn fans should ask themselves if Boom is going to try and force Malzahn to kill the clock and if he can't do that if he's going to stay on the job for long.
Hell, I think Auburn fans should ask themselves if Boom is going to try and force Malzahn to kill the clock and if he can't do that if he's going to stay on the job for long.
This post was edited on 7/8/15 at 3:33 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:33 pm to Nguyening
No. He just needs elite talent like most other "great" coordinators. LSU still lost this round of musical chairs. Chief immediately makes the aggie's at least respectable. Check out the talent they already have in College Station.
This post was edited on 7/8/15 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:50 pm to Nguyening
I wouldn't say he "needs" a ball control offense any more than any other defensive coordinator.
But it is logical to assume that an offense like Sumlin's will hamper defensive statistics, regardless of who the coordinator is. If they are scoring rapidly, that's more possessions in which the defense has to be on the field. Conversely, if they are running hurry up and going three and out or only getting 6-7 offensive snaps off before turning it over, that's less time for the defense to recoup before taking the field again.
The Chavis ordeal has gotten to the point where you can't really talk about it honestly, because it turns into a jerk off contest--which we know the ags will win (sorry, couldn't help myself).
But he's a great coordinator, one of the top 5 or so in the game. The talent and scheme at tamu isn't there for him to field top flight defenses yet, but he's an huge upgrade regardless of what LSU fans will say.
Despite this, he isn't without his flaws. The guy doesn't recruit well. His specialty is supposedly linebackers, but that was usually an area at LSU that wasn't up to par with the secondary or D-line. There would be a good-great MLB generally, but LSU always seemed thin on the outside.
Also, third and Chavis is real. Its not as if no lead is safe, but playing prevent defense under CFB rules is just plain stupid--nickle and diming a defense with a time out and 1:00min left is possible because of the clock stoppages.
Again, he's a great coordinator and will be a big improvement at tamu, but given how close he is to retirement, plus the talent and scheme in College Station, it would really surprise me if he starts consistently fielding the ridiculous defenses he did at Tennessee and LSU.
But it is logical to assume that an offense like Sumlin's will hamper defensive statistics, regardless of who the coordinator is. If they are scoring rapidly, that's more possessions in which the defense has to be on the field. Conversely, if they are running hurry up and going three and out or only getting 6-7 offensive snaps off before turning it over, that's less time for the defense to recoup before taking the field again.
The Chavis ordeal has gotten to the point where you can't really talk about it honestly, because it turns into a jerk off contest--which we know the ags will win (sorry, couldn't help myself).
But he's a great coordinator, one of the top 5 or so in the game. The talent and scheme at tamu isn't there for him to field top flight defenses yet, but he's an huge upgrade regardless of what LSU fans will say.
Despite this, he isn't without his flaws. The guy doesn't recruit well. His specialty is supposedly linebackers, but that was usually an area at LSU that wasn't up to par with the secondary or D-line. There would be a good-great MLB generally, but LSU always seemed thin on the outside.
Also, third and Chavis is real. Its not as if no lead is safe, but playing prevent defense under CFB rules is just plain stupid--nickle and diming a defense with a time out and 1:00min left is possible because of the clock stoppages.
Again, he's a great coordinator and will be a big improvement at tamu, but given how close he is to retirement, plus the talent and scheme in College Station, it would really surprise me if he starts consistently fielding the ridiculous defenses he did at Tennessee and LSU.
Posted on 7/8/15 at 3:52 pm to Nguyening
Chief is GOAT when coordinator at LSU
Chief is not GOAT when coordinating somewhere else
At least that's what I've picked up from LSU fans on this board
Chief is not GOAT when coordinating somewhere else
At least that's what I've picked up from LSU fans on this board
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