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Ranking the SEC bubble teams (1/25)

Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:14 pm
Posted by GatorsGators
Member since Oct 2012
13454 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:14 pm
This got a decent response last time I did it, so I think I'll do it again.

No longer on the bubble list: Arkansas (graduated up -- at least for now), Florida (fallen off), South Carolina (fallen off)

1. LSU (LW 3 RPI 37 SOS 87)

LSU has really solidified themselves as a tournament team over the past week. Neither Florida nor Vanderbilt is a great team, but beating both of those teams on the road is impressive nevertheless. They have a marquee victory at WVU and a winning record against the Top 50 (3-2).

Upcoming games: South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Auburn

That's a three game stretch that should help them pad their overall and conference records. However, losing one or two of those games would bring LSU back to the bubble pack fast.

2. Georgia (LW 2 RPI 25 SOS 23)

They handled business this week by beating fellow bubble team Ole Miss at home and Mississippi State on the road. However, their Seton Hall win keeps getting less and less impressive as they continue to drop games on the road and fall back to the bubble. Georgia has no signature wins but does have a plethora of Top 100 wins, with a 6-4 record against that group. They're still in very good shape but not there yet.

Upcoming games: Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, at Kentucky

Beating Kentucky on the road would basically make them a complete lock. They should win their other two games but wouldn't be ruined if they did drop either of them.

3. Texas A&M (LW 7 RPI 32 SOS 46)

They've had an impressive two weeks, gaining road wins over fellow bubble teams LSU and Tennessee in the process. They're still really light on quality wins but at this point have the RPI to make up for it. They'll need to improve their 1-4 record against the Top 50 and 3-5 record against the Top 100, but there are worse places to be in at this point in the season.

Upcoming games: at Auburn, Vanderbilt, at Ole Miss

Need to win the next two. They're not in a position where they can drop games to teams like Auburn and Vanderbilt. Getting a win at Ole Miss would be very helpful as well, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if they dropped that game as long as they win the former two. Lose one of those games and that game becomes far more important.

4. Alabama (LW 4 RPI 50 SOS 41)

Their resume is pretty much identical to Texas A&M's. 1-5 against the Top 50, 3-5 against the Top 50. Their computer profile isn't as good as A&M's right now, but it's still in bubble range. Like A&M, they'll need to finish strong but are still in decent bubble position.

Upcoming: Florida, at Kentucky, Missouri

Their two home games are practically must-wins. They need to protect home court, especially against mediocre teams. The Kentucky game is an opportunity. They could use a marquee win, but it's obviously not a game anyone expects them to win.

5. Ole Miss (LW 5 RPI 46 SOS 19)

Ole Miss is a weird case -- their best three wins are all away from home. Winning at Arkansas handily and beating Cincinnati on a neutral court in impressive fashion give them two very quality wins. Their loss to Western Kentucky honestly doesn't look as bad as it did at one point, but those Charleston Southern and TCU losses still hurt. Their 4-5 record vs. the Top 100 and 2-4 record vs. the Top 50 are about average bubble profiles.

Upcoming: Mississippi State, at Missouri, Texas A&M

They really need to go 3-0 here. They can't afford to add any more bad losses to their ledger, and they have to hold serve at home against other bubble teams. Anything less would put them in bad position.

6. Tennessee (LW 6 RPI 55 SOS 37)

This week was a mixed bag for UT with a win at South Carolina and a loss at home to Texas A&M. They still have two quality wins over Butler and Arkansas, both at home, but their best road/neutral win is at #118th South Carolina, worst of all SEC bubble teams. Their 2-5 record against the Top 50 and 3-5 record against the Top 100 are pretty standard bubble profiles.

Upcoming: at Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State

Need to go at least 2-1. Losing at Arkansas is nothing to be ashamed of, but they'll need to win the other two.
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:18 pm to
Wooo
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
40761 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:19 pm to
We have the stronger rpi and sos but we're 2nd?
Posted by UltimateHog
Oregon
Member since Dec 2011
66236 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:20 pm to
quote:

No longer on the bubble list: Arkansas
Posted by HailFreezusOver
Oxford
Member since Sep 2014
6234 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:22 pm to
Solid post.
Posted by Bham4Tide
In a Van down by the River
Member since Feb 2011
22374 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:28 pm to
quote:

Alabama


quote:

bubble team


Posted by T1gerWonder
Member since May 2011
4453 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 11:02 pm to
Really need to win our next 3 games
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 11:06 pm to
Bad Losses: (RPI 100+)

LSU - at Missouri
Georgia - at Georgia Tech
Texas A&M - None
Alabama - at South Carolina
Ole Miss - TCU, Charleston Southern
Tennessee - Marquette (Neutral)
Posted by harmonics
Mars Hotel
Member since Jan 2010
18739 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 11:23 pm to
Alabama will lose to Florida and totally frick the rest of their season.
Posted by SwayzeCrazy
Member since Jan 2015
3260 posts
Posted on 1/25/15 at 11:33 pm to
This is really good! Maybe should throw in the KenPom ratings.

Georgia: 28
Ole Miss: 34
LSU: 35
Alabama: 45
A&M: 55
Tennessee: 84
This post was edited on 1/25/15 at 11:35 pm
Posted by rockytop627
Member since Jan 2014
10041 posts
Posted on 1/26/15 at 6:11 am to
7: Florida

lol
Posted by agrunner
Flower Mound
Member since Dec 2012
4617 posts
Posted on 1/26/15 at 6:58 am to
I'm enjoying this ride right now but I know and most sane fans know that we are at most an NIT team, which is at least a big improvement over last year. Still sucks as I was in school for part of our 6 year run at the ncaa.
Posted by Tridentds
Sugar Land
Member since Aug 2011
21265 posts
Posted on 1/26/15 at 7:33 am to
Very nice post.
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30654 posts
Posted on 1/26/15 at 7:50 am to
Alabama is not, nor will be an NCAA tourney team this year. They have no front court. There's not a D-1 center or SF on their roster...I wish they were, but they aren't.
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43486 posts
Posted on 1/26/15 at 8:42 am to
Pretty solid list. I'm not sold on Arkansas being above the bubble. SMU has lost to everyone they played with a pulse... Dayton is a pretty good win and Georgia is solid as well, but still nothing on their schedule makes me believe they are in better position than LSU. Both are still bubble teams.
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