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Ranking the SEC bubble teams (1/25)
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:14 pm
This got a decent response last time I did it, so I think I'll do it again.
No longer on the bubble list: Arkansas (graduated up -- at least for now), Florida (fallen off), South Carolina (fallen off)
1. LSU (LW 3 RPI 37 SOS 87)
LSU has really solidified themselves as a tournament team over the past week. Neither Florida nor Vanderbilt is a great team, but beating both of those teams on the road is impressive nevertheless. They have a marquee victory at WVU and a winning record against the Top 50 (3-2).
Upcoming games: South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Auburn
That's a three game stretch that should help them pad their overall and conference records. However, losing one or two of those games would bring LSU back to the bubble pack fast.
2. Georgia (LW 2 RPI 25 SOS 23)
They handled business this week by beating fellow bubble team Ole Miss at home and Mississippi State on the road. However, their Seton Hall win keeps getting less and less impressive as they continue to drop games on the road and fall back to the bubble. Georgia has no signature wins but does have a plethora of Top 100 wins, with a 6-4 record against that group. They're still in very good shape but not there yet.
Upcoming games: Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, at Kentucky
Beating Kentucky on the road would basically make them a complete lock. They should win their other two games but wouldn't be ruined if they did drop either of them.
3. Texas A&M (LW 7 RPI 32 SOS 46)
They've had an impressive two weeks, gaining road wins over fellow bubble teams LSU and Tennessee in the process. They're still really light on quality wins but at this point have the RPI to make up for it. They'll need to improve their 1-4 record against the Top 50 and 3-5 record against the Top 100, but there are worse places to be in at this point in the season.
Upcoming games: at Auburn, Vanderbilt, at Ole Miss
Need to win the next two. They're not in a position where they can drop games to teams like Auburn and Vanderbilt. Getting a win at Ole Miss would be very helpful as well, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if they dropped that game as long as they win the former two. Lose one of those games and that game becomes far more important.
4. Alabama (LW 4 RPI 50 SOS 41)
Their resume is pretty much identical to Texas A&M's. 1-5 against the Top 50, 3-5 against the Top 50. Their computer profile isn't as good as A&M's right now, but it's still in bubble range. Like A&M, they'll need to finish strong but are still in decent bubble position.
Upcoming: Florida, at Kentucky, Missouri
Their two home games are practically must-wins. They need to protect home court, especially against mediocre teams. The Kentucky game is an opportunity. They could use a marquee win, but it's obviously not a game anyone expects them to win.
5. Ole Miss (LW 5 RPI 46 SOS 19)
Ole Miss is a weird case -- their best three wins are all away from home. Winning at Arkansas handily and beating Cincinnati on a neutral court in impressive fashion give them two very quality wins. Their loss to Western Kentucky honestly doesn't look as bad as it did at one point, but those Charleston Southern and TCU losses still hurt. Their 4-5 record vs. the Top 100 and 2-4 record vs. the Top 50 are about average bubble profiles.
Upcoming: Mississippi State, at Missouri, Texas A&M
They really need to go 3-0 here. They can't afford to add any more bad losses to their ledger, and they have to hold serve at home against other bubble teams. Anything less would put them in bad position.
6. Tennessee (LW 6 RPI 55 SOS 37)
This week was a mixed bag for UT with a win at South Carolina and a loss at home to Texas A&M. They still have two quality wins over Butler and Arkansas, both at home, but their best road/neutral win is at #118th South Carolina, worst of all SEC bubble teams. Their 2-5 record against the Top 50 and 3-5 record against the Top 100 are pretty standard bubble profiles.
Upcoming: at Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State
Need to go at least 2-1. Losing at Arkansas is nothing to be ashamed of, but they'll need to win the other two.
No longer on the bubble list: Arkansas (graduated up -- at least for now), Florida (fallen off), South Carolina (fallen off)
1. LSU (LW 3 RPI 37 SOS 87)
LSU has really solidified themselves as a tournament team over the past week. Neither Florida nor Vanderbilt is a great team, but beating both of those teams on the road is impressive nevertheless. They have a marquee victory at WVU and a winning record against the Top 50 (3-2).
Upcoming games: South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Auburn
That's a three game stretch that should help them pad their overall and conference records. However, losing one or two of those games would bring LSU back to the bubble pack fast.
2. Georgia (LW 2 RPI 25 SOS 23)
They handled business this week by beating fellow bubble team Ole Miss at home and Mississippi State on the road. However, their Seton Hall win keeps getting less and less impressive as they continue to drop games on the road and fall back to the bubble. Georgia has no signature wins but does have a plethora of Top 100 wins, with a 6-4 record against that group. They're still in very good shape but not there yet.
Upcoming games: Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, at Kentucky
Beating Kentucky on the road would basically make them a complete lock. They should win their other two games but wouldn't be ruined if they did drop either of them.
3. Texas A&M (LW 7 RPI 32 SOS 46)
They've had an impressive two weeks, gaining road wins over fellow bubble teams LSU and Tennessee in the process. They're still really light on quality wins but at this point have the RPI to make up for it. They'll need to improve their 1-4 record against the Top 50 and 3-5 record against the Top 100, but there are worse places to be in at this point in the season.
Upcoming games: at Auburn, Vanderbilt, at Ole Miss
Need to win the next two. They're not in a position where they can drop games to teams like Auburn and Vanderbilt. Getting a win at Ole Miss would be very helpful as well, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if they dropped that game as long as they win the former two. Lose one of those games and that game becomes far more important.
4. Alabama (LW 4 RPI 50 SOS 41)
Their resume is pretty much identical to Texas A&M's. 1-5 against the Top 50, 3-5 against the Top 50. Their computer profile isn't as good as A&M's right now, but it's still in bubble range. Like A&M, they'll need to finish strong but are still in decent bubble position.
Upcoming: Florida, at Kentucky, Missouri
Their two home games are practically must-wins. They need to protect home court, especially against mediocre teams. The Kentucky game is an opportunity. They could use a marquee win, but it's obviously not a game anyone expects them to win.
5. Ole Miss (LW 5 RPI 46 SOS 19)
Ole Miss is a weird case -- their best three wins are all away from home. Winning at Arkansas handily and beating Cincinnati on a neutral court in impressive fashion give them two very quality wins. Their loss to Western Kentucky honestly doesn't look as bad as it did at one point, but those Charleston Southern and TCU losses still hurt. Their 4-5 record vs. the Top 100 and 2-4 record vs. the Top 50 are about average bubble profiles.
Upcoming: Mississippi State, at Missouri, Texas A&M
They really need to go 3-0 here. They can't afford to add any more bad losses to their ledger, and they have to hold serve at home against other bubble teams. Anything less would put them in bad position.
6. Tennessee (LW 6 RPI 55 SOS 37)
This week was a mixed bag for UT with a win at South Carolina and a loss at home to Texas A&M. They still have two quality wins over Butler and Arkansas, both at home, but their best road/neutral win is at #118th South Carolina, worst of all SEC bubble teams. Their 2-5 record against the Top 50 and 3-5 record against the Top 100 are pretty standard bubble profiles.
Upcoming: at Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State
Need to go at least 2-1. Losing at Arkansas is nothing to be ashamed of, but they'll need to win the other two.
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:18 pm to GatorsGators
Wooo
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:19 pm to GatorsGators
We have the stronger rpi and sos but we're 2nd?
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:20 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
No longer on the bubble list: Arkansas
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:22 pm to GatorsGators
Solid post.
Posted on 1/25/15 at 10:28 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
Alabama
quote:
bubble team
Posted on 1/25/15 at 11:02 pm to GatorsGators
Really need to win our next 3 games
Posted on 1/25/15 at 11:06 pm to GatorsGators
Bad Losses: (RPI 100+)
LSU - at Missouri
Georgia - at Georgia Tech
Texas A&M - None
Alabama - at South Carolina
Ole Miss - TCU, Charleston Southern
Tennessee - Marquette (Neutral)
LSU - at Missouri
Georgia - at Georgia Tech
Texas A&M - None
Alabama - at South Carolina
Ole Miss - TCU, Charleston Southern
Tennessee - Marquette (Neutral)
Posted on 1/25/15 at 11:23 pm to GatorsGators
Alabama will lose to Florida and totally frick the rest of their season.
Posted on 1/25/15 at 11:33 pm to GatorsGators
This is really good! Maybe should throw in the KenPom ratings.
Georgia: 28
Ole Miss: 34
LSU: 35
Alabama: 45
A&M: 55
Tennessee: 84
Georgia: 28
Ole Miss: 34
LSU: 35
Alabama: 45
A&M: 55
Tennessee: 84
This post was edited on 1/25/15 at 11:35 pm
Posted on 1/26/15 at 6:11 am to GatorsGators
7: Florida
lol
lol
Posted on 1/26/15 at 6:58 am to GatorsGators
I'm enjoying this ride right now but I know and most sane fans know that we are at most an NIT team, which is at least a big improvement over last year. Still sucks as I was in school for part of our 6 year run at the ncaa.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 7:33 am to GatorsGators
Very nice post.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 7:50 am to GatorsGators
Alabama is not, nor will be an NCAA tourney team this year. They have no front court. There's not a D-1 center or SF on their roster...I wish they were, but they aren't.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 8:42 am to GatorsGators
Pretty solid list. I'm not sold on Arkansas being above the bubble. SMU has lost to everyone they played with a pulse... Dayton is a pretty good win and Georgia is solid as well, but still nothing on their schedule makes me believe they are in better position than LSU. Both are still bubble teams.
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