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re: If an undefeated Moo St loses to 2-loss UGA in the SECCG
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:04 pm to Shockley03
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:04 pm to Shockley03
quote:
How bad would the melt be if no SEC team makes it into the first playoffs?
I'm an AU fan, not a SEC fan. Wouldn't bother me a bit.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:04 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:
I'm an AU fan, not a SEC fan. Wouldn't bother me a bit.
Gotta give you props here. frick everyone except Alabama
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:05 pm to Shockley03
If State goes 12-0 in the regular season, the SEC championship game doesn't really mean much unless UGA obliterates them.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:07 pm to Shockley03
State would still get in
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:12 pm to Shockley03
I think if MSU only has one loss, even in the SECCG, they’re probably in no matter what (maybe baring a Prescott injury and a blowout). This doesn’t necessarily mean UGA and MSU couldn’t both go.
Here’s the way I see UGA’s chances (with some ESPN FPI stats to show how it’s really not as far-fetched as many are making it out to be:
All of the following assumes UGA wins out, including in the SECCG. (Which obviously means Missouri has to lose 1 more game. They should be the underdog in all three remaining games, so this is very likely)
There are a maximum of 6 teams standing in UGA’s way:
1. OSU or Neb. (1 of them guaranteed to lose)
2. Oregon or AZ St. (1 of them guaranteed to lose)
3. TCU
4. Baylor
5. MSU
6. FSU
UGA only needs 2-3 (explained below) of the following to happen in order to get in (ranked roughly according to how likely I think they are to happen):
1. FSU loses = 1 more game (67% likely according to ESPN’s FPI, still has MIA, UF, ACCCG)
2. MSU loses to Bama (74% likely) and Ole Miss (68% likely)
3. Neb. loses to Wisc., Minn. or Iowa (63%, 24%, 29% likely) and OSU loses = 1 more game (55% likely)
4. Baylor loses = 1 more game (34% likely according to ESPN FPI, still has KSU)
5. TCU loses = 1 more game (32% likely according to ESPN FPI, still has Texas)
6. AZ St. loses to OR St., WA St., or AZ (26%, 17%, 56% likely) and Oregon loses in PAC10CG (they’ll be favored, probably heavily, against anyone)
Note:
If #2 doesn’t happen, we need 3 of the others to happen because 1 loss MSU would be in ahead of the 2-loss SECC
If #2 does happen, we might only need 1 of either #1 or the second half of #3 to happen because:
I don’t think Baylor and TCU would both be in if it means excluding the SEC
I don’t think 1-loss FSU or 1-loss Neb. would be in if it means excluding the SEC
If #2 does happen and neither #1 nor the second half of #3 happens, we probably still need 2 others to happen
Thoughts? Have I watched the "Gurely Coming Home" video one too many times?
Here’s the way I see UGA’s chances (with some ESPN FPI stats to show how it’s really not as far-fetched as many are making it out to be:
All of the following assumes UGA wins out, including in the SECCG. (Which obviously means Missouri has to lose 1 more game. They should be the underdog in all three remaining games, so this is very likely)
There are a maximum of 6 teams standing in UGA’s way:
1. OSU or Neb. (1 of them guaranteed to lose)
2. Oregon or AZ St. (1 of them guaranteed to lose)
3. TCU
4. Baylor
5. MSU
6. FSU
UGA only needs 2-3 (explained below) of the following to happen in order to get in (ranked roughly according to how likely I think they are to happen):
1. FSU loses = 1 more game (67% likely according to ESPN’s FPI, still has MIA, UF, ACCCG)
2. MSU loses to Bama (74% likely) and Ole Miss (68% likely)
3. Neb. loses to Wisc., Minn. or Iowa (63%, 24%, 29% likely) and OSU loses = 1 more game (55% likely)
4. Baylor loses = 1 more game (34% likely according to ESPN FPI, still has KSU)
5. TCU loses = 1 more game (32% likely according to ESPN FPI, still has Texas)
6. AZ St. loses to OR St., WA St., or AZ (26%, 17%, 56% likely) and Oregon loses in PAC10CG (they’ll be favored, probably heavily, against anyone)
Note:
If #2 doesn’t happen, we need 3 of the others to happen because 1 loss MSU would be in ahead of the 2-loss SECC
If #2 does happen, we might only need 1 of either #1 or the second half of #3 to happen because:
I don’t think Baylor and TCU would both be in if it means excluding the SEC
I don’t think 1-loss FSU or 1-loss Neb. would be in if it means excluding the SEC
If #2 does happen and neither #1 nor the second half of #3 happens, we probably still need 2 others to happen
Thoughts? Have I watched the "Gurely Coming Home" video one too many times?
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:19 pm to RussIX
I think Auburn's loss last weekend hurts you. You have two horrible losses, and you beat most likely a 4 loss AU team as your only quality victory outside of MSU. Other 2 loss teams would have better victories. While the SEC West has name recognition, the East is looked at like a shite show.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:20 pm to RussIX
quote:
Have I watched the "Gurely Coming Home" video one too many times?
I'd blame the crack pipe; not the video.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:27 pm to BearBait09
quote:
Goes even more so if Georgia gets whipped by Auburn the way most of us think they will
Who thinks this? I haven't really seen much as far as predictions for Saturday but I don't think many, even Auburn fans, expect them to whoop us.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:30 pm to gatorhata9
quote:
I don't think many, even Auburn fans, expect them to whoop us.
I would be shocked. There could be 600 yards of rushing between the teams Saturday.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:32 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:... I'd love it if a UGA win over AU & an upset win in the SECCG fricked everyone else in the SEC...
I'm an AU fan, not a SEC fan. Wouldn't bother me a bit.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:32 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:
I would be shocked. There could be 600 yards of rushing between the teams Saturday.
I'd bet over 550 combined without hesitation.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:34 pm to gatorhata9
I'm not sure what the over/under is, but I'd consider taking the under just based on the TOP being eaten up on rushing the whole game.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:35 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:
I think Auburn's loss last weekend hurts you.
True.
quote:
You have two horrible losses,
True again.
quote:
4 loss AU team as your only quality victory outside of MSU
Well.....Clemson and Georgia Tech are both ranked, so there's that. So, that gives us 4 quality wins (in your scenario) with one being the #1 team in the Nation.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:37 pm to DawgsLife
Forgot about Clemson. Tech...we'll see, as they are still gt at the end of the day.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:39 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
quote:Amazingly enough, looking at Vegasinsider it's around 68...
I'm not sure what the over/under is,
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:39 pm to Shockley03
quote:I've been saying this for 3 weeks now....all 1-loss SEC teams will make the playoffs. If Alabama wins out and State beats Ole Miss and remains with 1 loss, they'll go too.
How bad would the melt be if no SEC team makes it into the first playoffs? Also would the committee give the last spot to Moo State, UGA, or a possible 1 or 2-loss Big 10 champ? All considering the top 3 spots will be FSU, Oregon/ASU, and Baylor/TCU.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:41 pm to dallasga6
quote:
68...
Under please. Maybe 31-28 in my book.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:42 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
... I thought it'd be around 82...
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:43 pm to NorthGwinnettTiger
This is probably right. Guess we need to hope for continued improvement from UF, maybe have them beat up on FSU. Maybe have them be rebranded as this much improved team without driskel.Then we'd have just the one bad loss to a decent team and the close loss to a bad team early in the season.
Nothing SC can do to help now given they play two other teams that we also played, so net positive effect would be 0
A UF over FSU result and a UGA win over Bama in the SECCG would surely put us in the conversation if MSU drops two and all the other Power 5 don't have 1-loss champs
Nothing SC can do to help now given they play two other teams that we also played, so net positive effect would be 0
A UF over FSU result and a UGA win over Bama in the SECCG would surely put us in the conversation if MSU drops two and all the other Power 5 don't have 1-loss champs
Posted on 11/11/14 at 4:49 pm to dallasga6
Barring some busted plays that lead to 60 yard scores, I expect a heavy dose of runs by both teams. 75% heavy. Chubb/Michel in the first half and Gurley all second. I know TG is listed as starter, but I expect MR to use Chubb to beat on the AU line for awhile.
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