It's inevitable that the Big12 will break up...

In the end, we will have 4 16-team conferences...the pac16, the Big10, the ACC, and the SEC.

It's just a matter of time. It's not gonna happen overnight, but everyone knows the end game.

Texas, Baylor, txTech, TCU to Pac12
WestVirginia to ACC
Kansas, KansasSt, IowaSt to Big10
OU/OklSt to SEC

Might be some shuffling with NC and Virginia schools with ACC/SEC, but the bottom line is the Big12 will disperse itself among the other 4 conferences...there are a couple of different ways that "disbursement" could play out, but above is my best guess.

It will all happen at once pretty much and all current Big12 teams will have a home, which will make the GOR irrelevant.

This post was edited on 8/17/14 at 10:31 pm

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Posted by Cheese Grits

Wherever I lay my hat is my home

Member since Apr 2012

55184 posts

Posted on 8/17/14 at 10:46 pm to JPLSU1981

quote:
In the end, we will have 4 16-team conferences...the pac16, the Big10, the ACC, and the SEC.

The PAC has a geographic moat so they really don't need to go to 16. They could add Texas and Texas Tech and stop. PAC will not take private religious schools like TCU and Baylor if they would not take BYU. Those 2 probably wind up in a conference with SMU and Rice. If they did go to 16 they could take OU and OSU and create 2 8 team divisions :
PAC 8 "classic" = 4 CA schools, 2 OR schools, and 2 WA schools
PAC 8 "new coke" = 2 AZ schools, 2 TX schools, 2 OK schools, UI and CO

ACC would make ND a full time and add 1 more to get to 16

SEC and B1G could stay at 14 each unless they got 2 really good schools. West Virginia, Kansas State, and Iowa State would not be one of these schools, not would OSU, BU, or TCU.

Keep in mind moving to 4 superconfernces means shrinking the pool not growing it. Basically you have to ask if 2 schools are worth 50 to 100 million each for the B1G or ACC to add them. Realistically Texas is the only must get and it gets marginal quickly after that.

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Posted by CGSC Lobotomy

Member since Sep 2011

81091 posts

Posted on 8/17/14 at 11:38 pm to JPLSU1981

quote:
t will all happen at once pretty much and all current Big12 teams will have a home, which will make the GOR irrelevant.

All current Big 12 teams will NOT have a home in a power conference. What makes the GOR irrelevant is if a majority vote to dissolve the conference.

Teams with options:

Texas (IF the longhorn network is scuttled)

Oklahoma (If and when Boone Pickens dies or Oklahoma State is taken as a package deal)

Iowa State (AAU school. Big Ten would consider)

Kansas (AAU school and basketball power. Big Ten would consider)

West Virginia (if the ACC wants them)

The other schools are SOL for the following reasons:

Baylor (private religious school with average academics, small fan base, and minimal budget)

TCU (see Baylor, only with less Ken Starr)

Oklahoma State (Boone Pickens is the only thing keeping them tied to Oklahoma)

Kansas State (glorified JUCO)

Texas Tech (see Kansas State)

The current Big 12 is the SWC after the SMU death penalty.

You have more than one private school, 2 "name" schools, a school WAY outside the footprint, and everything else in the same basic geographic area.

To illustrate:

Texas and Texas A&M (SWC) = Texas and Oklahoma (B12)

Baylor, and TCU (SWC) = Baylor and TCU (B12)

Arkansas (SWC) = West Virginia (B12)

Texas Tech, Houston, SMU, Rice (SWC) = Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Texas Tech (B12)

In the end, Houston, SMU, Rice, and TCU were left to wither and die on the vine.

If the Big 12 breaks up, Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State are almost certainly left behind. Texas Tech might survive due to its size and Oklahoma State due to Boone Pickens.

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