LSU is in the SEC Championship as long as Bama wins Saturday

We all know what happens if LSU wins Friday. However, in the unlikely event that they lose, here is your breakdown. In the event of a 3-way tie, as long as LSU is not blown out Friday, they will be in the SECCG. Even a blowout might not be enough. On November 27th, here are what the BCS will look like:

Computers: LSU will be #1 in all of the computers even with a loss. The computers do not care about margin of victory, so even a blowout will not affect this. Also, although a win would cement Arkansas as the #4 team in the computers, it will not be enough for Arky to pass up either OSU or Bama. That means LSU will have a 1.000 score for this part, Bama will have .9600-.9200, and Arky will have .8800.

Coache's poll/Harris poll: This is where the margin of victory will come into play. First, lets assume it is close, since that is far, far more likely. OSU will not have played OU at this time. Alabama will be easy to slide to #1 on most ballots, but what about people who think the LSU head-to-head win and resume is more impressive? LSU will almost certainly still receive 1st place votes. Further, LSU will almost certainly stay ahead of Stanford and VT on all ballots. So, even if they average being ranked #3 on the ballots, that will give them .9200 for each poll. If Arky averages #2 on ballots, that gives them .9600, and Bama would get 1.000 if they average #1.

Now, the final BCS rankings, given a close game, will look something like this. I have put the score ranges next to each team. I bet my posting priveleges for 3 months on the scores being between these ranges:

1. Bama, (.9866 - .9600)
2. LSU, (.9733 - .9466)
3. Arky, (.9466 - .9200)

***Now, with a close game, the polls would probably all have LSU, Bama, and Arky in a mess. All 3 would likely receive some 1st place votes, and although it would probably shape up with Bama with the most points, Arky second, and LSU third, the relative positions do not matter. The BCS is concerned with the point totals as a percentage of points possible. That is why the uncertainty amongst pollsters will be so important.


Now, lets assume a blowout. LSU would still find themselves no worse than 3rd on most ballots, and for the few people that drop them lower than that, there will be others that put them higher, so it is safe to say that LSU can expect no worse than a .9200 for each poll. Combined with the computer score, that puts LSU with a .9466 BCS score. As for Arkansas, at best, they can hope to move to 3rd in a few computers. I think they will be a solid #4 in all of the computers, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt. If they split #3 and #4, that gives them a .9000 computer score. That means they need to get 1.94 points in the two human polls, or .9700 a peice, or an average of a 1.75 ranking on each ballot. If we assume Arkansas will be no worse than #2 on ballots, that means for every 3 people that rank Arkansas second, 1 needs to rank Arkansas #1. That equates to 15 #1 votes in the Coaches' poll and 29 #1 votes in the Harris poll. If Arkansas finds themselves at #3 on any ballots, they will need even more #1 votes. And even that is only enough to tie LSU's BCS score. They need better than that to pass LSU.

In conclusion, there is a good chance Bama would pass LSU, but there is no chance that Arky passes LSU or Bama, and thus LSU wins the tie breaker and heads to Atlanta.

What do Arky and Bama fans need to happen?

Bama fans, beat Auburn and you are in. LSU beating Arkansas would seal the deal. No chance at the SEC Championship, but almost guaranteed to be in the NC.

Arky fans, beat LSU and Auburn beats Bama, and you are in the SECCG. Win that and you will play OSU if they beat OU or you will rematch with LSU if OSU loses.
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beat LSU and if Bama beats Auburn, you need to pull for UGA over LSU and OU over OSU on December 3rd. If both of those two teams pull the upset, it will be Arky vs. Bama in a rematch for the National Championship. Decent chance at the SEC Championship, but you absolutely need an Auburn upset to get there. Without it, no chance at the SEC Championship. Decent chance at the NC, but you need UGA to upset LSU and OU to upset OSU.

LSU fans, beat Arky, and you are in no matter what happens in Atlanta. Lose to Arky, and you will need Bama to beat Auburn to play in Atlanta. Lose to Arky and Auburn upsets Bama, and you may sneak into the NC. If OU upsets OSU, you are guaranteed to be there.