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Arkansas vs. LSU: An objective analysis
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:21 pm
In preparation of the upcoming matchup of Hogs vs. Tigers, I decided to look at their past performances objectively. While I’m a homer to no end, I still want to see the numbers. What I found was surprising: the numbers show that LSU isn’t as good as everybody makes them out to be.
This chart was created by using only the ESPN rankings of each team that both Arkansas and LSU have faced so far this season. At the end, to compare Hogs vs. LSU, I’ve essentially averaged the rankings from each team to form a strength of schedule analysis and how both LSU and Arkansas have performed in comparison. In short, this shows that Arkansas’ team ranks slightly higher vs. a slightly easier strength of schedule.
Considering all of the hype you see in the media and from LSU fans, I expected to see a much larger gap between the two. However, there simply isn’t one.
LSU SCHEDULE TO DATE (opponent rankings)
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense)
Oregon (79/5/3/33)
NWS (not ranked)
MSU (82/48/70/17)
WV (5/97/16/63)
UK (110/89/115/64)
UF (95/66/83/20)
Tenn. (41/116/102/50)
Aub. (107/42/85/78)
Bama (71/18/24/1)
WKU (106/63/105/59)
Avg. (77/60/67/43)
Avg. of all team rankings vs. LSU = 62
ARKANSAS SCHEDULE TO DATE (opponent rankings)
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense)
MZ St. (Not ranked)
NM (90/98/119/119)
Troy (26/109/95/105)
Bama (71/18/24/1)
TxAM (16/16/12/89)
Aub (107/42/85/78)
Miss (104/85/109/87)
Vandy (100/59/68/31)
SC (102/32/53/19)
Tenn (41/116/102/50)
Avg. (73/64/74/64)
Avg. ranking of all team rankings vs. Arkansas = 69
ARKANSAS VS. LSU
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense/Avg. Rank)
Ark (11/73/13/30/32)
LSU (99/30/18/2/37)
LSU Average Rank = 37
ARK Average Rank = 32
Average Rank of Team vs. LSU = 62
Average Rank of Team vs. ARK = 69
This chart was created by using only the ESPN rankings of each team that both Arkansas and LSU have faced so far this season. At the end, to compare Hogs vs. LSU, I’ve essentially averaged the rankings from each team to form a strength of schedule analysis and how both LSU and Arkansas have performed in comparison. In short, this shows that Arkansas’ team ranks slightly higher vs. a slightly easier strength of schedule.
Considering all of the hype you see in the media and from LSU fans, I expected to see a much larger gap between the two. However, there simply isn’t one.
LSU SCHEDULE TO DATE (opponent rankings)
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense)
Oregon (79/5/3/33)
NWS (not ranked)
MSU (82/48/70/17)
WV (5/97/16/63)
UK (110/89/115/64)
UF (95/66/83/20)
Tenn. (41/116/102/50)
Aub. (107/42/85/78)
Bama (71/18/24/1)
WKU (106/63/105/59)
Avg. (77/60/67/43)
Avg. of all team rankings vs. LSU = 62
ARKANSAS SCHEDULE TO DATE (opponent rankings)
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense)
MZ St. (Not ranked)
NM (90/98/119/119)
Troy (26/109/95/105)
Bama (71/18/24/1)
TxAM (16/16/12/89)
Aub (107/42/85/78)
Miss (104/85/109/87)
Vandy (100/59/68/31)
SC (102/32/53/19)
Tenn (41/116/102/50)
Avg. (73/64/74/64)
Avg. ranking of all team rankings vs. Arkansas = 69
ARKANSAS VS. LSU
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense/Avg. Rank)
Ark (11/73/13/30/32)
LSU (99/30/18/2/37)
LSU Average Rank = 37
ARK Average Rank = 32
Average Rank of Team vs. LSU = 62
Average Rank of Team vs. ARK = 69
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:22 pm to NOLA Razorback
This will not end well.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:22 pm to NOLA Razorback
Except LSU has actually beaten two top 5 teams. That's a huge difference. Who's the best team Arkansas has beaten?
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:23 pm to Brageous
Beating two top 5 teams away from home pretty much destroys your argument. You also got blown out in your loss. No doubt they are playing better but the comparison is really not even close.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to NOLA Razorback
I will admit that Arky has gotten better as the season has progressed but LSU will win. It might be a closer game than the Bama-Arky game was but LSU has too much power.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to Brageous
quote:
Who's the best team Arkansas has beaten?
Ourselves.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to Brageous
quote:
Except LSU has actually beaten two top 5 teams. That's a huge difference. Who's the best team Arkansas has beaten?
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to NOLA Razorback
worthless without adjusting for SoS and the recognition that passing defense stat is meaningless. The game is played on the field because ultimately the only meaningful stat comparing two teams is the final score of their game.
/thread
/thread
This post was edited on 11/16/11 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to NOLA Razorback
why use 3 offensive categories and only 1 defensive category?
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:26 pm to mwlewis
quote:
mwlewis
Ricky avatar

Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:27 pm to bartman217
quote:
why use 3 offensive categories and only 1 defensive category?
These are the 4 categories provided by ESPN on each team's page.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:27 pm to NOLA Razorback
This is a horrible analysis
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:27 pm to NOLA Razorback
I glad you go by Stats, bama also went by Stats
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:27 pm to NOLA Razorback
quote:
These are the 4 categories provided by ESPN on each team's page.
Clearly that makes the argument objective now

Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:29 pm to bartman217
The big top 10 show down with USCe was a joke. Without Lat they are just not very good.
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:30 pm to bartman217
quote:
why use 3 offensive categories and only 1 defensive category?
quote:
NOLA Razorback........>While I’m a homer to no end
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:32 pm to Stonehog
quote:
Ourselves
Nice hustle.


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