AU @ UGA this Saturday

I went last year. The baseline seats seemed to be far from the action. Narrow seats too. Of course 2 large gentlemen were seated next to us.

So looking at our SEC schedule, if we could pull out a win in Athens this weekend, I think we have a legit shot to get to 6-0 in SEC play before we head to Gainesville.

Auburn’s first 6 SEC games (using NET rankings):

@ #26 Georgia
This is our toughest game of the first six, Georgia is 12-1 and have destroyed most everyone they’ve played. However, they’ve played arguably the easiest schedule in the league.

Seven of Georgia’s opponents have a NET of #244 or worse, and Georgia beat up on those teams by an average score of 102-66.

Their other 5 wins came against teams with a NET between #95 and #190. UGA defeated this group by an average score of 90-75.

Georgia has faced just one opponent in the Top 94 which was #38 Clemson… they lost by 3 points.

I think Georgia has a high-scoring team, and when the shots are falling they can probably hang with anyone. If Auburn’s defense can play like they did in the first half last night, I think Auburn can win this game.

#64 Texas A&M at home
Much like Georgia, six of their ten wins came against opponents with a NET of #293 or worse. Their best win is over #120 Pitt. They are 0-3 against Top 100 opponents, losing to #31 SMU by 13, #36 UCF by 12, and #73 OK State by 24.

#30 Arkansas at home
This could be a monster game. They have two big wins over #15 Louisville and #20 Texas Tech… but they’ve lost to all three of the other Top 140 opponents they’ve played… losing to #3 Duke, #12 Michigan State, and #17 Houston.

Auburn and Arkansas interestingly have 3 common opponents, and Auburn seems to have performed slightly better when you compare each of the three:

Houston: we lost by 1; they lost by 9.
Jackson State: we won by 56; they won by 54.
Queens: we won by 41; they won by 28.

This will be a tough game but I like our chances in Neville.

@ #93 Missouri
Missouri is 0-3 against Top 100 opponents, losing by 20 to #18 Kansas… by 43 (!) to #10 Illinois… and by 5 to #76 Notre Dame. Their defensive efficiency is rated an abysmal #127 according to KenPom. Any SEC game on the road is tough, but this is one we should win.

#115 South Carolina at home
This is another team that has lost to every Top 150 team they’ve faced. Their best win was against #187 Charleston Southern.

The Cocks have lost four games, losing to #38 Clemson by 7, #42 Butler by 7, #63 Virginia Tech by 3, and #69 Northwestern by 2. All of those losses were actually close so I feel like this team is better than their rating suggests. But it should be an automatic win at home if Auburn plays its game.

@ #91 Ole Miss
An 8:00 pm midweek game against a team virtually already eliminated from NCAA Tournament contention is exactly the type of SEC road game you want.

The Rebs have 5 losses already… losing to #13 Iowa by 5, #29 St John’s by 5, #32 NC State by 14, #37 Miami by 9, and to #131 Utah by 1…. That last one is rated the worst loss of the season by any SEC team.

Their best win was over #104 Memphis by 6. They only beat #189 Southern Miss by 4 and #158 Austin Peay by 7.

It appears they just play everyone close. This one won’t be easy but it’s certainly a winnable game.

Conclusion

I think getting it started with a win over Georgia is key. If Auburn can get a big win in Athens and gain some momentum, we can absolutely start 6-0 and might very well be favored in those next five games. A 15-4 (6-0) start would be massive for Auburn and it would almost guarantee us a spot in the NCAA Tournament barring some type of catastrophe down the stretch.

It’s not that I’m exceptionally high on this Auburn team…. I think we’re headed for a first weekend exit in the NCAA Tourney… it’s just that I think the rest of the SEC is just as down or worse.

Auburn’s struggles against elite competition is not unique. Collectively the SEC is just 5-29 against the NET Top 25 and that’s with four teams yet to play a Top 25 opponent.

Arkansas (2), Tennessee (2), and Alabama (1) are the only three SEC teams to get a NET Top 25 win in non-conference play… and they all three have had their struggles as well. Bama is 1-3 against the Top 25. Arky is 2-3. Tennessee is the only team that is .500 or better against the current NET Top 25 (2-2) however they have a relatively bad loss to #89 Syracuse to grapple with as well.

There isn’t an SEC resume worthy of a Top 8 team, IMO which is why I think we may not have a single 1 or 2 seed in this year’s Tournament.

I do know this…

Arkansas (8-0), Auburn (9-0), Alabama (9-0), Kentucky (9-0), LSU (12-0), and Vandy (13-0) are the only SEC teams to enter SEC play without a loss to an opponent outside the NET Top 25… and one of those (Vandy) is yet to play a Top 25 team and another (LSU) has only played one.

Also, Auburn is one of just six SEC teams with at least two wins against Top 50 opponents…. Vandy and Bama each have 3. Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee each have 2.

With zero bad losses and multiple good wins, this tells me that Auburn appears to be a Top 5-7 team in the SEC this season and perhaps near the front of that group.

One team not mentioned yet is Florida… their metrics are good and I’d wager they are probably the gambling favorite to win the SEC… but their resume is not good. They are 0-3 against the Top 25 and they have a relatively bad loss to #51 TCU. I think they have the biggest upside in the league, but at this point, Auburn has a better resume.

IMO, Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky are the only five SEC teams who’ve really challenged themselves in OOC play and proven they can compete with likely tournament teams. Florida should probably be included. The jury is still out IMO on Vandy, Georgia, and LSU because they haven’t really played many good teams.

I think Florida & UT emerge as the best two teams in the league and real tournament threats. New faces and they have had some growing pains but I think both of them figure it out.

But yeah, the OOC performance is a huge step back from last year. We had several loaded veteran teams last year. Like I think Ole Miss from last year would win the SEC this year and they were middle of the pack last year.

I bought tickets from UGA when their tickets went on sale to the public. There are no really bad seats in the Stegosaurus.

Just pulled the trigger and bought four tickets. I hope to see a lot of orange in the stands.

1:00 ET