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FEI Rankings - Strength of Record (ELS) ---- "Elite Team"
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:04 am
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:04 am
FEI Rankings
FEI is one of the 3-4 major advanced metric sites. They have a metric for SOS and SOR which analyzes them in 3 different ways --- how many losses would an "elite" team have (two standard deviations from average, aka a Top 15 team) against a schedule, how many losses would a "good" team have (one standard deviation aka a #30ish team) and how many losses would an "average" team have (zero standard deviations, aka a #50ish team).
This is an important distinction because some schedules have 4 top 10 teams and then 8 terrible teams. Another team could play 12 7-5/8-4 teams and have the same "average" SOS. 3and10 posts about this a lot as well.
So, FEI's "EWD" (Elite) Strength of Record rankings should be pretty reasonable to be used as a ranking of the overall win/loss resume for a team trying to get in the playoffs.
EWD - Strength of Record (losses under/over expectation)(expected # of losses for an elite team with this team's schedule) (actual losses)
1. Indiana (-1.48) (1.48) (0)
2. Ohio State (-1.23) (1.23) (0)
3. Oregon (-1.04) (2.04) (1)
4. Texas A&M (-0.72) (1.72) (1)
5. Georgia (-0.68) (1.68) (1)
6. BYU (-0.56) (1.56) (1)
7. Alabama (-0.38) (2.38) (2)
8. Ole Miss (-0.31) (1.31) (1)
9. Oklahoma (-0.18) (2.18) (2)
10. Texas Tech (-0.15) (1.15) (1)
11. Texas (+0.20) (2.80) (3)
12. Vanderbilt (+0.35) (1.65) (2)
13. Notre Dame (+0.51) (1.49) (2)
14. Miami (+0.65) (1.35) (2)
15. Utah (+0.73) (1.27) (2)
16. North Texas (+0.75) (0.25) (1)
17. USC (+0.77) (2.23) (3)
18. James Madison (+0.79) (0.21) (1)
19. Navy (+0.97) (1.03) (2)
20. Michigan (+1.06) (1.94) (3)
21. Tulane (+1.53) (0.47) (2)
22. Illinois (+1.65) (2.35) (4)
23. Virginia (+1.66) (0.34) (2)
24. Iowa (+1.67) (2.33) (4)
25. Missouri (+1.78) (2.22) (4)
27. Tennessee (+1.92) (2.08) (4)
37. LSU (+2.62) (2.38) (5)
65. Auburn (+4.39) (2.61) (7)
72. Kentucky (+4.65) (2.35) (7)
76. Mississippi State (+4.82) (2.18) (7)
83. Florida (+5.31) (2.69) (8)
85. South Carolina (+5.48) (2.52) (8)
110. Arkansas (+7.48) (2.52) (10)
FEI is one of the 3-4 major advanced metric sites. They have a metric for SOS and SOR which analyzes them in 3 different ways --- how many losses would an "elite" team have (two standard deviations from average, aka a Top 15 team) against a schedule, how many losses would a "good" team have (one standard deviation aka a #30ish team) and how many losses would an "average" team have (zero standard deviations, aka a #50ish team).
This is an important distinction because some schedules have 4 top 10 teams and then 8 terrible teams. Another team could play 12 7-5/8-4 teams and have the same "average" SOS. 3and10 posts about this a lot as well.
So, FEI's "EWD" (Elite) Strength of Record rankings should be pretty reasonable to be used as a ranking of the overall win/loss resume for a team trying to get in the playoffs.
EWD - Strength of Record (losses under/over expectation)(expected # of losses for an elite team with this team's schedule) (actual losses)
1. Indiana (-1.48) (1.48) (0)
2. Ohio State (-1.23) (1.23) (0)
3. Oregon (-1.04) (2.04) (1)
4. Texas A&M (-0.72) (1.72) (1)
5. Georgia (-0.68) (1.68) (1)
6. BYU (-0.56) (1.56) (1)
7. Alabama (-0.38) (2.38) (2)
8. Ole Miss (-0.31) (1.31) (1)
9. Oklahoma (-0.18) (2.18) (2)
10. Texas Tech (-0.15) (1.15) (1)
11. Texas (+0.20) (2.80) (3)
12. Vanderbilt (+0.35) (1.65) (2)
13. Notre Dame (+0.51) (1.49) (2)
14. Miami (+0.65) (1.35) (2)
15. Utah (+0.73) (1.27) (2)
16. North Texas (+0.75) (0.25) (1)
17. USC (+0.77) (2.23) (3)
18. James Madison (+0.79) (0.21) (1)
19. Navy (+0.97) (1.03) (2)
20. Michigan (+1.06) (1.94) (3)
21. Tulane (+1.53) (0.47) (2)
22. Illinois (+1.65) (2.35) (4)
23. Virginia (+1.66) (0.34) (2)
24. Iowa (+1.67) (2.33) (4)
25. Missouri (+1.78) (2.22) (4)
27. Tennessee (+1.92) (2.08) (4)
37. LSU (+2.62) (2.38) (5)
65. Auburn (+4.39) (2.61) (7)
72. Kentucky (+4.65) (2.35) (7)
76. Mississippi State (+4.82) (2.18) (7)
83. Florida (+5.31) (2.69) (8)
85. South Carolina (+5.48) (2.52) (8)
110. Arkansas (+7.48) (2.52) (10)
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Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
Hardest Schedules for an "Elite" Team to navigate per FEI (expected # of losses for elite team)
1. Wisconsin (3.80) (@ Alabama, vs Ohio State, @ Oregon, @ Indiana)
2. Purdue (3.40) (Notre Dame, Ohio State, Indiana)
3. UCLA (3.12)
4. Texas (2.80)
5. Penn State (2.74)
6. Florida (2.69)
7. Auburn (2.61)
8. Rutgers (2.53)
9. Arkansas (2.52)
10. South Carolina (2.52)
11. Alabama (2.38)
12. LSU (2.38)
19. Oklahoma (2.18)
21. Oregon (2.04)
32. Texas A&M (1.72)
33. Georgia (1.68)
34. Vanderbilt (1.65)
38. BYU (1.56)
42. Notre Dame (1.49)
43. Indiana (1.48)
47. Miami (1.35)
50. Ole Miss (1.31)
53. Ohio State (1.23)
57. Texas Tech (1.15)
85. Tulane (0.47)
105. Virginia (0.34)
112. North Texas (0.25)
116. James Madison (0.21)
1. Wisconsin (3.80) (@ Alabama, vs Ohio State, @ Oregon, @ Indiana)
2. Purdue (3.40) (Notre Dame, Ohio State, Indiana)
3. UCLA (3.12)
4. Texas (2.80)
5. Penn State (2.74)
6. Florida (2.69)
7. Auburn (2.61)
8. Rutgers (2.53)
9. Arkansas (2.52)
10. South Carolina (2.52)
11. Alabama (2.38)
12. LSU (2.38)
19. Oklahoma (2.18)
21. Oregon (2.04)
32. Texas A&M (1.72)
33. Georgia (1.68)
34. Vanderbilt (1.65)
38. BYU (1.56)
42. Notre Dame (1.49)
43. Indiana (1.48)
47. Miami (1.35)
50. Ole Miss (1.31)
53. Ohio State (1.23)
57. Texas Tech (1.15)
85. Tulane (0.47)
105. Virginia (0.34)
112. North Texas (0.25)
116. James Madison (0.21)
This post was edited on 12/4/25 at 8:17 am
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:07 am to SummerOfGeorge
That list is complete shite. Tamus pre Texas victories in conference winning percentage was coming like .29. The Big is a closed system and benefited from OSU beating an overrated Texas squad.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:11 am to lewis and herschel
quote:
That list is complete shite. Tamus pre Texas victories in conference winning percentage was coming like .29. The Big is a closed system and benefited from OSU beating an overrated Texas squad.
If Ohio State had lost 1 game they would be ranked #8. If they'd lost 2 games they would be #12-13.
If Texas A&M had lost 2 games vs their schedule they'd be ranked #12-13.
Their schedules were not as hard as some others, but they both played at least 1-2 very good teams and finished 11-1 and 12-0. They both had very little margin for error.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:11 am to lewis and herschel
quote:
The Big is a closed system and benefited from OSU beating an overrated Texas squad.
This is probably true, but I actually believe it’s just a case of their league being impossible to properly quantify statistically because it’s like a group of girls with two 10s and a bunch of 2’s.
The fact that there are a bunch of 2’s doesn’t mean the 10s aren’t super hot, just that they’re being compared to trolls weekly so the data is skewed as a result.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:13 am to tide06
Texas Tech seems to really be getting the benefit of the doubt for playing 1 semi-elite team, losing to a #30/35 team and beating absolutely nobody else of significance all year (Utah has done nothing to prove they are of significance). They don't even come up in conversation.
This post was edited on 12/4/25 at 8:24 am
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Texas Tech seems to really be getting the benefit of the doubt for playing 1 semi-elite team, losing to a #30/35 team and beating absolutely nobody else of significance all year. They don't even come up in conversation.
Another eye test team.
Do I think they have a roster built to compete? Yes.
Do I think they’d have 3 losses or more if they played OUs schedule? Absolutely.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:28 am to SummerOfGeorge
When adding into account head to head, eye test, etc as a secondary input to the SOR noted I'd probably go
1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas A&M
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. BYU
9. Oklahoma
10. Alabama
11. Texas
12. Vanderbilt
13. Miami
14. Notre Dame
15. Utah
1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas A&M
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. BYU
9. Oklahoma
10. Alabama
11. Texas
12. Vanderbilt
13. Miami
14. Notre Dame
15. Utah
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:50 am to SummerOfGeorge
We are not last!!! Losers!
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
Indiana is the BIGs Tamu.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:52 am to lewis and herschel
quote:
Indiana is the BIGs Tamu.
Maybe. We'll find out Saturday. What they did to Oregon on the road was impressive as hell.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
I’ve said the same thing. It’s ridiculous
Posted on 12/4/25 at 8:59 am to Tex117
SummerofGeorge for the win. Great post. Strength of Record and SOS should be the predominant guidelines, and are, for the committee. They simply need to follow their own rules. It's really that simple. It's what they do when selecting the at-large teams for March Madness.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 9:01 am to hornfan46
Yup.
It’s absolutely silly what is going on right now
It’s absolutely silly what is going on right now
Posted on 12/4/25 at 9:03 am to hornfan46
Whoever loses Texas/Tech/BYU is out. Alabama is in unless they get boat raced. Vandy gets shafted, but that's the fault of the ACC champ game winner getting an auto bid, and the auto bid for Group of 5.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 9:07 am to SummerOfGeorge
How the hell is Oregon the 21st hardest schedule to navigate when it's a complete joke?
Posted on 12/4/25 at 9:11 am to Gator Fever
quote:
How the hell is Oregon the 21st hardest schedule to navigate when it's a complete joke?
When you look at it in the context of an elite teams schedule, they played a Top 2 team, which is going to be a much higher possible loss than other teams who didn't play a Top 5-10 team but played 4-5 #14-30 teams.
Throw in @ Penn St (who was a Top 40 team based on performance), @ Iowa, @ Washington and USC and that is why.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 9:16 am to SummerOfGeorge
Even looking @ Penn State like it's a good win now makes those ratings suspect.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 9:18 am to Gator Fever
quote:
Even looking @ Penn State like it's a good win now makes those ratings suspect.
It's not a great win but it is absolutely a good win. Penn State lost @ Ohio State by 24. Their other 5 losses were by a combined 16 points, including last second losses at home to Oregon and Indiana.
They are the B1Gs version of Auburn.
Posted on 12/4/25 at 9:20 am to SummerOfGeorge
Georgia’s schedule not being higher surprises me. They played Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Tennessee.
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