Started By
Message
Updated luck adjusted ratings
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:25 am
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:25 am
Reminder, this rating attempts to account for the fact that 1 score games are basically just a coin flip and a win doesn’t mean you are all that much better than a loss. Similar to a buzzer beater in basketball, the preceding 39 minutes are more meaningful for evaluating tournament contenders than the last 10 seconds.
Formula: multi score win over end of season ranked team = 1 point, one score game = -0.5, multi score loss = -1. To account for conference championships, the raw score is divided by the number of games played. For these ratings I assume Aggies stay ranked. If not, Texas and Scar ratings take a bit of a hit
Top 15
UGA 0.04167
Ole Miss 0.04167
Notre Dame 0
Texas -0.04167
OSU -0.0833
Oregon -0.125
Indiana -0.125
Penn State - 0.1667
SMU -0.1667
Boise State -0.1667
Alabama -0.1667
UT -0.2083
South Carolina -0.2083
Miami -0.2083
Clemson -0.25
Takeaway:
1) acc absolutely does not deserve multiple bids. Miami is a 4 loss team masquerading as a 2 loss team and Clemson/SMU will have no good wins if they lose the championship
2) Oregon is essentially the same team as Indiana except they won coin flips against OSU, Boise, and Wisconsin. Don’t have confidence in them unless they crush Penn state.
3) ole miss has the worst possible record they could have given the game scores (0-3 in 1 score games. 2 multi score wins over top 15 teams) making their range of expected record 9-3 to 12-0. Alabama is two plays away from 11-1 but they are also two plays away from 7-5. South Carolina could be 11-1 if they had gotten a little luckier, but could easily be 6-6 if they were a little less lucky. And lost to both other bubble teams head to head.
4) UGA played a brutal schedule and showed the highest upside (blowouts of Clemson and Texas and a convincing win over UT) without showing much downside until Ga Tech
5) UT scores slightly behind Bama but close enough for head to head to matter. So I would have them in over Bama.
How I would seed the playoffs:
1. Sec champion
2. Big10 champ
3. SMU if acc champ/boise if Clemson wins
4. Boise if smu wins/clemson if they win
5. Notre Dame
6. SEC champ loser
7. Big10 champ loser (switch with OSU if Penn state loses)
8. OSU
9. Indiana
10. UT
11. Ole Miss
12. Big 12 champ
Formula: multi score win over end of season ranked team = 1 point, one score game = -0.5, multi score loss = -1. To account for conference championships, the raw score is divided by the number of games played. For these ratings I assume Aggies stay ranked. If not, Texas and Scar ratings take a bit of a hit
Top 15
UGA 0.04167
Ole Miss 0.04167
Notre Dame 0
Texas -0.04167
OSU -0.0833
Oregon -0.125
Indiana -0.125
Penn State - 0.1667
SMU -0.1667
Boise State -0.1667
Alabama -0.1667
UT -0.2083
South Carolina -0.2083
Miami -0.2083
Clemson -0.25
Takeaway:
1) acc absolutely does not deserve multiple bids. Miami is a 4 loss team masquerading as a 2 loss team and Clemson/SMU will have no good wins if they lose the championship
2) Oregon is essentially the same team as Indiana except they won coin flips against OSU, Boise, and Wisconsin. Don’t have confidence in them unless they crush Penn state.
3) ole miss has the worst possible record they could have given the game scores (0-3 in 1 score games. 2 multi score wins over top 15 teams) making their range of expected record 9-3 to 12-0. Alabama is two plays away from 11-1 but they are also two plays away from 7-5. South Carolina could be 11-1 if they had gotten a little luckier, but could easily be 6-6 if they were a little less lucky. And lost to both other bubble teams head to head.
4) UGA played a brutal schedule and showed the highest upside (blowouts of Clemson and Texas and a convincing win over UT) without showing much downside until Ga Tech
5) UT scores slightly behind Bama but close enough for head to head to matter. So I would have them in over Bama.
How I would seed the playoffs:
1. Sec champion
2. Big10 champ
3. SMU if acc champ/boise if Clemson wins
4. Boise if smu wins/clemson if they win
5. Notre Dame
6. SEC champ loser
7. Big10 champ loser (switch with OSU if Penn state loses)
8. OSU
9. Indiana
10. UT
11. Ole Miss
12. Big 12 champ
6
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:26 am to Dixie.Reb
If there is a God then SMU will win the ACC.
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:29 am to Dixie.Reb
I disagree about 1 score games being coin flips to an extent. The more you win, the better you get at coming back when you're losing. The Kansas City Chiefs and Georgia Bulldogs are proving that this season.
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:34 am to Dixie.Reb
An average ACC team did whip the team that beat Ole Miss. The same average ACC team beat Clemson by 12 and Clemson barely lost to SC.
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:41 am to Dixie.Reb
I agree with your concept in theory but not all one score games are equal.
Winning or losing on a 57 yard FG at the buzzer or on a Hail Mary is very different than being up 7 and taking a knee at the opponents 5 yard line because you already have the game won.
Winning or losing on a 57 yard FG at the buzzer or on a Hail Mary is very different than being up 7 and taking a knee at the opponents 5 yard line because you already have the game won.
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:47 am to NorthEndZone
I don’t disagree and if y’all want to go through play by plays for every game and determine which 1 score games were garbage time scores vs legit close be my guest. I have too much of a life to do that on a Sunday 
. But these ratings honestly match up pretty well with intuition I think.
The one adjustment I would make if I had more time is 1 score game vs ranked team being -0.25 vs -0.5 for unranked. I think that would appropriately penalize ole miss for playing down to competition while still recognizing they got very unlucky against UK and LSU
. But these ratings honestly match up pretty well with intuition I think. The one adjustment I would make if I had more time is 1 score game vs ranked team being -0.25 vs -0.5 for unranked. I think that would appropriately penalize ole miss for playing down to competition while still recognizing they got very unlucky against UK and LSU
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:51 am to Violent Hip Swivel
quote:
I disagree about 1 score games being coin flips to an extent. The more you win, the better you get at coming back when you're losing. The Kansas City Chiefs and Georgia Bulldogs are proving that this season.
Decades of data doesn’t agree. Just like turnover luck is based on luck not having a “nose for the football”. The only exception I can think of is Mario Cristobal who absolutely finds innovative ways to blow 1 score games
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:56 am to Gator Fever
quote:
An average ACC team did whip the team that beat Ole Miss. The same average ACC team beat Clemson by 12 and Clemson barely lost to SC.
Yes, that’s the point. Ole Miss should be penalized for even letting UK hang around. But once it is a 1 score game they shouldn’t be penalized more for a lucky 4th down pass interference.
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:57 am to Dixie.Reb
quote:
1. Sec champion
2. Big10 champ
3. SMU if acc champ/boise if Clemson wins
4. Boise if smu wins/clemson if they win
5. Notre Dame
6. SEC champ loser
7. Big10 champ loser (switch with OSU if Penn state loses)
8. OSU
9. Indiana
10. UT
11. Ole Miss
12. Big 12 champ
Get the actual frick out of here with this shite
Posted on 12/1/24 at 11:58 am to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Decades of data doesn’t agree. Just like turnover luck is based on luck not having a “nose for the football”. The only exception I can think of is Mario Cristobal who absolutely finds innovative ways to blow 1 score games
That's solid stuff, but I don't think that everything can be measured and I do believe that "winning is a habit" to some extent. More experience at doing something leads to more expertise in doing that thing.
Posted on 12/1/24 at 12:11 pm to Vols&Shaft83
quote:
That's solid stuff, but I don't think that everything can be measured and I do believe that "winning is a habit" to some extent. More experience at doing something leads to more expertise in doing that thing.
It’s a free country so you can think whatever you want. Doesn’t mean you’re right. And rosters turn over year to year so I don’t know how a habit would be formed with a sample size of 3 close games.
quote:
Get the actual frick out of here with this shite
Who should UT be ahead of exactly? Everyone else has fewer losses except UGA who has the head to head win by multiple scores and OSU which has head to head wins over IU and PSU. UT has a 1 score win which easily could have been a loss over Bama who isn’t in this field and a multi score loss to UGA. 0 convincing wins over ranked teams.
Posted on 12/1/24 at 2:46 pm to Dixie.Reb
Update: if we count 1 score games against ranked teams as -0.25 and 1 score games against unranked teams as -0.5
UGA 0.0625
Ole Miss 0.04167
Oregon 0
OSU -0.04167
PSU -0.0625
Notre Dame -0.0833
Bama -0.1042
Texas -0.125
Indiana -0.125
Boise -0.125
SMU -0.1458
South Carolina -0.1458
UT -0.1875
Miami -0.1875
Clemson -0.2292
Generally the same, but psu and Oregon move up with Illinois ranked and Texas, SCar, and Notre Dame drop with Aggies no longer ranked.
Texas is now slightly better Indiana: beat the teams they were supposed to, lost to the only good team they played by multiple scores, and survived a close road game (vandy and Michigan). Texas gets the edge because they blasted Michigan.
South Carolina now relying on last second luck against Mizzou and Clemson for their ranked wins.
UGA 0.0625
Ole Miss 0.04167
Oregon 0
OSU -0.04167
PSU -0.0625
Notre Dame -0.0833
Bama -0.1042
Texas -0.125
Indiana -0.125
Boise -0.125
SMU -0.1458
South Carolina -0.1458
UT -0.1875
Miami -0.1875
Clemson -0.2292
Generally the same, but psu and Oregon move up with Illinois ranked and Texas, SCar, and Notre Dame drop with Aggies no longer ranked.
Texas is now slightly better Indiana: beat the teams they were supposed to, lost to the only good team they played by multiple scores, and survived a close road game (vandy and Michigan). Texas gets the edge because they blasted Michigan.
South Carolina now relying on last second luck against Mizzou and Clemson for their ranked wins.
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News