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Did we really get beat that bad?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:54 am
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:54 am
Far left is interesting.
To clarify:
Dude used to coach at Ohio State. He now charts the success rate of plays in a football game. He basically has a model that determines if a given play in a given context was successful, and charts the success rates of teams. For example, a gain of two on 3rd and 1 is successful, but a gain of 2 on 1st and 10 is not.
I do not know the details of how his math judges a play successful or not, but he charts them. Higher success rates are strongly correlated with winning the game.
Georgia's plays were successful more often than States, and at a clip that was the second highest postive disparity of the day. Ole Miss's plays were successful more often than LSU's, and at a rate such that LSU overcame a greater negative imbalance in that stat than any other college football team that won on Saturday.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 1:27 pm
10
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:55 am to Hugh McElroy
This is the worst graph I've ever seen. It makes no sense and is tiny.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:56 am to Hugh McElroy
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:56 am to Hugh McElroy
Can we get some context on what stat this is supposed to represent?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:57 am to FootballFrenzy
I can't read it and it's not explained
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:57 am to FootballFrenzy
They put it out every week. I’ve been following it all season. I actually think it’s a good view of the games played, and a different perspective from the usual stuff that’s cranked out.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:57 am to 3down10
quote:
Can we get some context on what stat this is supposed to represent?
I think it says LSU sucks.. Ole Miss blew the game.. and Georgia and Clemson are world beaters.. but I'm not sure.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:58 am to Hugh McElroy
That's how it felt watching. Ole Miss led for nearly the entire game but the offense couldn't put the nail in the coffin and the secondary eventually shite itself.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:58 am to Hugh McElroy
this is a wtf that causes brain pain
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:58 am to Wellborn
quote:
They put it out every week. I’ve been following it all season. I actually think it’s a good view of the games played, and a different perspective from the usual stuff that’s cranked out.
But...it still doesn't make sense. What does it tell us, and what does it base what it tells us on?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:59 am to BigBro
quote:
I think it says LSU sucks.. Ole Miss blew the game.. and Georgia and Clemson are world beaters.. but I'm not sure.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:59 am to FootballFrenzy
The horizontal line of team logos are the teams who lost. The other logo, ordered from lowest to highest, is essentially how much better the other team (ie the winner) played (by something called "net success" however that is defined) and the associated bar between the two indicating the delta. So on the far right the loser totally got their arse kicked, and on the far left, teams won while actually playing worse than the team they beat.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 11:59 am to MtVernon
Wtf is net success rate
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:00 pm to 3down10
quote:
Can we get some context on what stat this is supposed to represent?
Dude used to coach at Ohio State. He now charts the success rate of plays in a football game. He basically has a model that determines if a given play in a given context was successful, and charts the success rates of teams. For example, a gain of two on 3rd and 1 is successful, but a gain of 2 on 1st and 10 is not.
I do not know the details of how his math judges a play successful or not, but he charts them. Higher success rates are strongly correlated with winning the game.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:01 pm to BigBro
quote:
I think it says LSU sucks.. Ole Miss blew the game.. and Georgia and Clemson are world beaters.. but I'm not sure.
Well, Ole Miss did blow the game.
Which is funny because Florida fans are wanting to get rid of Napier because he blew a game against Tennessee(among other reasons obviously), and are at the same time wishing for Kiffin who has blown multiple games as well.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:03 pm to Hugh McElroy
So this graph wants me to believe that Alabamas struggle win over SC at home was a bigger success than:
LSU beating a top 10 OM team
Vandy beating UK on the road
Texas blowing out OU in a rivalry game
Not to mention that a lackluster UGA win was the second most successful win of the week?
LSU beating a top 10 OM team
Vandy beating UK on the road
Texas blowing out OU in a rivalry game
Not to mention that a lackluster UGA win was the second most successful win of the week?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:04 pm to FootballFrenzy
It’s just another perspective for rabid football fans (like me) who enjoy different ways of analyzing games.
It’s probably not meant to be taken too seriously. I appreciate the effort.
It’s probably not meant to be taken too seriously. I appreciate the effort.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:04 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Far left is interesting.
Why is it interesting?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:05 pm to Zanzibaw
quote:
So this graph wants me to believe that Alabamas struggle win over SC at home was a bigger success than
It does nothing of the kind. It simply reports that a greater percentage of Alabama's offensive players were successful (relative to USCe) than were LSU's (relative to Ole Miss).
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:05 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Dude used to coach at Ohio State. He now charts the success rate of plays in a football game. He basically has a model that determines in a given play in a given context was successful, and charts the success rates of teams.
So it's just about "staying ahead of the chains". And I'm assuming the higher the success rate combined with a loss = further to the left?
Making this more about a graph of how well you played only to lose.
Not sure it's about "did we really get beat that bad" as much as it is "How badly did we just piss away our success".
That said, I thought Kiffin overall made better decisions in that game than normal. They just left so many points on the field for other reasons.
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