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College Football Nerds Breakdown Georgia v Bama
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:05 am
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:05 am
10
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:13 am to Capn_Bevo
Your mom puts out good content
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:14 am to Capn_Bevo
Hate to say it, but Bama wins this game going away.
They ain't no Kentucky.
They ain't no Kentucky.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:15 am to Georgia Jailbird
quote:
Georgia Jailbird
Fitting..
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:16 am to Capn_Bevo
Those guys always slant their stuff and ignore stats that they get sometimes. 
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:26 am to Porter Osborne Jr
I'll go with 'Bama in this one.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:35 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:They admit that their model is problematic early in the season due to a lack of data. I'm not a huge fan of predictive data models in general (football, climate, etc), but these guys always put out lengthy and thoughtful breakdowns that include some gut reactions mixed into their predictions.
Those guys always slant their stuff and ignore stats that they get sometimes.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:36 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
Your mom puts out good content
Thanks, she's pretty knowledgeable about football. Your mom's a straight up huer
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:39 am to Capn_Bevo
Lemme guess… Bama wins 
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:39 am to GooseSix
quote:
Georgia Jailbird
Fitting..
Given that he joined in September and has less than 10 posts, do you think he just might be an alter?
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:40 am to Georgia Jailbird
quote:
Georgia Jailbird
quote:
Registered 9/24/2024
Looks like we got a tenner alt posing uga now
Posted on 9/24/24 at 10:58 am to Georgia Jailbird
quote:
Hate to say it, but Bama wins this game going away.
Im thinking the same
Posted on 9/24/24 at 11:38 am to Georgia Jailbird
quote:
Hate to say it, but Bama wins this game going away.
They ain't no Kentucky.
The fact that UGA fans are throwing in the towel and writing this game off as a loss is alarming.
Bama is fricked.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 3:52 pm to Capn_Bevo
We can do embeds on here now, Capn.
TL;DW:
TL;DW:
Posted on 9/24/24 at 3:54 pm to Capn_Bevo
Nobody cares about those two old man programs anymore. It's all about Mizzou, Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 3:58 pm to jamespatterson
quote:
Nobody cares about those two old man programs anymore. It's all about Mizzou
Posted on 9/24/24 at 4:07 pm to Capn_Bevo
Bama by 7
Posted on 9/24/24 at 4:08 pm to Capn_Bevo
quote:
They admit that their model is problematic early in the season due to a lack of data.
Agree. Any stats are only directional at this point including FEI after three games of primarily cupcakes but trends and relative performance starts to give you an idea of where teams are by now.
quote:
but these guys always put out lengthy and thoughtful breakdowns that include some gut reactions mixed into their predictions.
Agreed. I mean they split their picks and the guy who went with Bama picked them by three with a -1.5 line, it’s not like they’re being homers here.
Pretty much everything else besides the over exuberance on Jam Miller I agree with:
-UGA is better than their UK performance
-They have a major question on the OL without Ratledge which given the fact that they’re a run first team is a problem on the road against one of if not the best defense in the country so far
-UGA hasn’t proven they have elite playmakers and seem to be prone to having their offense stall if they can’t stay ahead of the sticks
-Bama is impossible to benchmark because their first two games were without Proctor and the USF game they didn’t have either OT which both are back now
-They haven’t sustained drives effectively but are incredibly explosive. In effect their offense is just as good as UGA YTD even with the injuries, but they’re living on chunk plays. I’m not convinced those plays exist against an outstanding UGA secondary
-Bama has given opportunities up deep but the teams they’ve played haven’t hit them, Beck will IMO
-Bama is playing 1 gap defense meaning it’s boom or bust with stopping the run, UGA may exploit this
-It’s likely to be a game in the 20s and Milroe is probably the key one way or the other
This post was edited on 9/24/24 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 9/24/24 at 4:22 pm to tide06
quote:
tide06
Dang, nice write-up.
In regards to Jam Miller, my (very, very early) theory is that his performance thus far directly relates to Kalen DeBoer's concepts.
I watched a lot of offseason film on his Washington teams, and one of his staples is constant offensive line movement, with good old-school pin and pull action.
He combines this with a modified (Tennessee) wide-split style, out of stack and bunch.
Effectively what this causes is the defensive line to get so beat down and gassed early by motions, pulls, traps, screens, etc., that by the second half they've stopped getting penetration and are turning and looking for the ball at the snap, which is when we start seeing these huge running lanes opening up.
(If you think back, Miller has been scoring on some non-contact explosive plays, often late, which I think are being set up.)
Anyhoo, just my two cents.
Posted on 9/24/24 at 4:31 pm to paperwasp
quote:
I watched a lot of offseason film on his Washington teams, and one of his staples is constant offensive line movement, with good old-school pin and pull action. He combines this with a modified (Tennessee) wide-split style, out of stack and bunch.
I know without question we haven’t seen about 75% of his UW playbook.
My question is whether that’s due to competition or Jalen Milroe. I suspect it’s some of both.
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