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CFB Top 10 + SEC CFP Ranked Teams - If CFB used the NET Rankings from College Basketball

Posted on 11/8/23 at 5:49 pm
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 5:49 pm
Note : Updated to use K-Ford Deserving Rankings, which to me seem like the most reasonable ranking of team's resumes to date, though I'm sure there are some ranks people will hate. It is what it is.


K-Ford Most Deserved Rankings














This post was edited on 11/9/23 at 9:53 am
Posted by Summer of Jimbo
Amateur Statistician
Member since Oct 2022
3900 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 5:53 pm to
quote:

Michigan 9-0 in Q3/4



Posted by BuckI
Grove City, Ohio
Member since Oct 2020
7206 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 5:56 pm to
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102005 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 5:59 pm to
Geez Michigan what a joke



They had to steal signals to beat 9 shite teams
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 6:01 pm to
IMHO

1. Ohio State
2. Washington
3. Florida State
4. Georgia
5. Texas
6. Alabama
7. Ole Miss
8. Oregon
9. Michigan
10. Louisville
11. Penn State
Posted by Thorny
Montgomery, AL
Member since May 2008
2255 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 6:19 pm to
So, the teams should essentially be ranked this way:

Ohio State
Bama (really helped by the Quad 2 wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee)
Washington
3 way tie between UGA, FSU, Ole Miss
Texas
Michigan
Oregon
Penn State

Interesting.

GEAUX TIGERS!
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 6:22 pm to
quote:

So, the teams should essentially be ranked this way:

Ohio State
Bama (really helped by the Quad 2 wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee)
Washington
3 way tie between UGA, FSU, Ole Miss
Texas
Michigan
Oregon
Penn State

Interesting.



I think being undefeated, if all else is somewhat equal, should give you a bump. So should a head to head win (Texas/Alabama, Oregon/Washington), especially when it's on the road by double digits.

The only undefeated right now I think Alabama (and a few others) should be ahead of is Michigan, because they've done absolutely nothing to date. Washington definitely has and FSU and Georgia have to an extent (and haven't lost).
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 6:24 pm
Posted by Summer of Jimbo
Amateur Statistician
Member since Oct 2022
3900 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 6:25 pm to
Where are we ranking Ball State here?
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
138749 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 6:25 pm to
Kentucky too high
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

Where are we ranking Ball State here?



Posted by Jebadeb
Member since Oct 2017
5809 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 7:17 pm to
LSU 1-3 in Q1 games?
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 7:18 pm to
quote:

LSU 1-3 in Q1 games?


Yep that sounds right. @ Mizzou win, losses @/N to FSU, Miss, Bama.
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 7:19 pm
Posted by Thorny
Montgomery, AL
Member since May 2008
2255 posts
Posted on 11/8/23 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

I think being undefeated, if all else is somewhat equal, should give you a bump. So should a head to head win (Texas/Alabama, Oregon/Washington), especially when it's on the road by double digits.

The only undefeated right now I think Alabama (and a few others) should be ahead of is Michigan, because they've done absolutely nothing to date. Washington definitely has and FSU and Georgia have to an extent (and haven't lost)


I would generally agree with you, but this was a thought experiment about the math. I assigned a point value to each level to calculate a ranking (Q1 wins were worth 4 points, Q2 wins worth 3, etc. Losses were the opposite.) I'm not really a mathematician, so I don't know if my quick calculation compares to the real NET formula, but it made sense to me.

While Bama does have a loss, they also have 4 Q1/Q2 wins. No other team has done that. Their loss is to a Q1 team as well, so they have played 5 Q1/Q2 teams. Only Ole Miss has played 4. Their schedule has been clearly the toughest of all the teams in the top 10 so far (and right now, wins at Kentucky and Auburn would be Q2 wins as well.)

The fact is that half of college football fans wants some type of objective ranking and half want to rely totally on the "eye test." The second half always seems to win the debate: in the BCS, they removed the "strength of schedule" factor when LSU beat out USC in 2003 and blew up the whole BCS when Bama beat out the computer-favored Okie State in 2011.

In the end, the CFP playoff committee will play games with the press through the season and prioritize the undefeated teams in the last ranking.

GEAUX TIGERS!
Posted by koreandawg
South Korea
Member since Sep 2015
13460 posts
Posted on 11/9/23 at 3:47 am to
Michigan is gonna roll Penn St. this weekend. Penn St. is overrated. Everyone at ESPN is gonna wet their pants the next three days, but not with urine. And we'll have a new number one in the CFP.

I've never understood how Sagarin comes up with his rankings. But for decades now, I've thought he must have something in there that favors blue bloods. Notre Dame seems almost always ranked higher than they should and a team like Mizzou or Kentucky never seem to get much higher than 25 or so even with a ten win season.

A&M's rank? Where does that come from?
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/9/23 at 8:47 am to
Not really any 1-133 ranking that anybody seems to agree on.

All of them have something that seems off.

quote:

A&M's rank? Where does that come from?



My guess is 3 1-score losses to top 15 teams, 2 on the road.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/9/23 at 9:53 am to
Updated with a better rankings system (I think).
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
51767 posts
Posted on 11/9/23 at 9:55 am to
We joke on here about UGA playing a garbage schedule but holy shite Michigan
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/9/23 at 9:56 am to
quote:

We joke on here about UGA playing a garbage schedule but holy shite Michigan



Anybody pretending to know how good Michigan is at this point is just blowing smoke. Nobody have any idea whether they are a clear #1 juggernaut or a really good Top 5 team. There is no amount of points you can beat Purdue by that tells you a difference between those 2 things.
Posted by Robot Santa
Member since Oct 2009
46290 posts
Posted on 11/9/23 at 10:18 am to
They may not even be a legit top 5 team. Honestly I don't think you can say they are unless they go out and hate frick Ohio State. Penn State are total frauds so that game won't tell us much even if Michigan wins somewhat comfortably. If they beat Ohio State 27-24 or something does that mean they're suddenly a great team? I don't think so. The 10th best team beating the 2nd best team by a FG is not an unusual result at all.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 11/9/23 at 10:21 am to
quote:

They may not even be a legit top 5 team


I mean it really is crazy how their schedule is just kind of being looked at so far like "oh well, it's not great but...".

I really think the whole analytics stuff is helping them. The "oh they beat XYZ bad team by 18% more than an average team." Cool, that tells us next to nothing about performance against an elite team. Terrible teams have no way to take away certain parts of your game and therefore you don't have to adjust or perfect certain aspects, you are just really really good at doing a thing they have no ability to stop. Acting like because Team A beats Terrible B by 40 and Team B beats Terrible B by 55 means Team A is 15 pts better (which is basically the entire Michigan is awesome argument) is laughably stupid.

How in the hell are they ranked in the top 4? And how is that not the lead "hot take response" after these rankings?
This post was edited on 11/9/23 at 10:22 am
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