2022 College Football Projections - Alabama game by game projections

#1 ALABAMA : 12-0 (8-0) (#2 off, #3 def)

Alabama 51 - Utah State 9

Alabama 38 - Texas 21

Alabama 56 - ULM 7

Alabama 52 - Vanderbilt 7

Alabama 39 - Arkansas 21

Alabama 37 - Texas A&M 14

Alabama 41 - Tennessee 24

Alabama 41 - Mississippi State 17

Alabama 35 - LSU 21

Alabama 38 - Ole Miss 17

Alabama 100 - Austin Peay 2

Alabama 41 - Auburn 14

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Appreciate you putting this together.

What made you go with the 70% previous year FEI weighting? I know you adjust using returning production, gut reaction just says that’s pretty high.

Curious if you have run a retrospective analysis on your formula to see how predictive it is using data from previous years?

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It's tough to go much lower before you start just seeing teams that recruit well and return guys popping up in the Top 7-10. 70%, when applied, felt about right as a baseline to sort of set where programs are right now. Then, returning players/recruiting/transfers kind of propels or drops them from where they were. FSU and State are pretty good examples of that - both were between 30-40 last year but they return everyone and have decent recruiting, so that popped them into the Top 10-20.

#18 LSU (7-5, 3-5) (#33 off, #13 def)

- LSU 27 - FSU 21

- LSU 19 - Southern 6

- LSU 26 - Mississippi State 23

- LSU 37 - New Mexico 3

- Auburn 24 - LSU 22

- LSU 30 - Tennessee 27

- Florida 24 - LSU 23

- LSU 28 - Ole Miss 24

- Alabama 35 - LSU 21

- Arkansas 27 - LSU 24

- LSU 34 - UAB 20

- Texas A&M 24 - LSU 17

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#12 Auburn

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But seriously, thanks for the information, SOG.

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17% returning production gets you the #1 defense? That seems off somehow.

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It's 17th percentile. And it does when combined with past performance and recruiting, though much closer to others than last year.

All in all defenses across the top of college football won't be as good and offenses will be better, at least according to this.

It seems high, but then you run their schedules and that ranking = 8-4 with a bunch of close games where if they go the wrong way could be 6-6.

Such is life in the SEC West.

What does the SEC championship against UK look like?

Rankings are updated (final tweak before season). Transfer portal was the biggest change - it was underrepresented bigly before, now it factors more into returning production.

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so was Auburn #12 in one of your previous models?

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Which was one of the triggers for adjustments. A big piece was the transfer part only accounted for transfers in, not out, and it wasn't heavily enough factored into returning production. So it really gave a bonus to schools that brought a bunch of guys in (many of which lost a bunch of guys that they weren't penalized for).