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Alabama Basketball - Ideal Lineup Construction Moving Forward

Posted on 1/27/22 at 9:44 am
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 9:44 am
I noted in the basketball thread that the following 2 lineups have been our only +/+ lineups (off/def) this season. Using the ShotQuality site I tried to dive into why these lineups work to see if there was a specific rhyme or reason that could tell us whether we could expect them to keep working moving forward.

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The answer is yes.


Here are each players national percentile ranking in various areas of play (100th percentile being the best of the best compared to the rest of the country, 1st percentile being the worst of the worst compared to the rest of the country).

As you look at these, think about how our offense operates and where these various skillsets would mesh together as a whole. There aren't a lot of individual defensive figures, but as the defensive efficiency numbers above show - these are by far our best Non-Bediako defensive lineups.




So how do we score in our offense? Good spacing, good passing, efficient shots, offensive rebounds off of 3s.

- These lineups have 3 very good to elite passers. JD, for his issues, has been an excellent passer this year. Elite of the elite. Shack and Ellis are also very good passers.

- Having good passers matters, because this lineup also features 3 guys who are very, very efficient at scoring off of passes - Gurley and Ellis in the 80th+ percentile, Miles in the 72nd percentile. In addition, not noted here, Gary is in the 79th percentile as an efficient cutter. So you have 3 guys who are excellent at catch and shoot 3s, 3 very good passers, and 1 very good cutter and finisher. It creates a whole lot to deal with as a defense.

- While not everyone in this lineup is great at spacing, the SG/F are all very good at it. Shack, Ellis and Miles - the main spacers - are 92nd, 96th and 78th in spacing. They are good at moving and finding open areas to operate. That also leads to..........

- This line up has 3 very good efficient 3PT shooters - Ellis 95th, Miles 90th and Shack 80th, with Gurley also being solidly "good" at 73rd.

- All of the "bigs" (Ellis, Miles, Gurley, Gary) are above average to very good offensive rebounders, which matters when you shoot a ton of 3s.

It is not a coincidence that 15 of our 17 highest PPP plays this season have been by one of these 6 guys, with the 2 exceptions being Bediako dunks off screens (which are very efficient the few times they happen, but not not worth the times they don't).





Bottom line, all the numbers show that Bediako's presence on the floor just completely collapses our offense. He obviously has to play some, and there will be opponents with bigs that he will have to play (Kentucky for example), but in general we just can't play him a whole lot. He does have a positive effect on defensive production, but his weight on the offensive side is much worse than his positive on defense. Some combination of Gary/Gurley/Miles at the 4 and 5 has worked defensively and is light years better than anything else on the offensive end. And, while they aren't great defensive rebounders, none of our lineups are, so the dropoff there is slim anyway.

Finally, Keon Ellis just has to do more. He's great at everything. That isn't an exaggeration, here are his percentile ranks in various things. He's excellent at all of them. He has to be our #1 guy on offense. He has to have the ball in his hands looking to score double the amount he is right now.


This post was edited on 1/27/22 at 9:51 am
Posted by Bryant91092
Member since Dec 2009
25480 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 9:53 am to
Please email this great analysis to the following:

chenry@ia.UA.edu
Bhodgson@ia.UA.edu
Apettway@ia.UA.edu
abauman@ia.UA.edu
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 9:54 am to
quote:

Please email this great analysis to the following:

chenry@ia.UA.edu
Bhodgson@ia.UA.edu
Apettway@ia.UA.edu
abauman@ia.UA.edu



Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28553 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:01 am to
I look forward to seeing what SOG looks like when we see him on the bench at a D1 school next year
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:03 am to
quote:

I look forward to seeing what SOG looks like when we see him on the bench at a D1 school next year



Moving from auditing non-profits to auditing Radford's defensive lineups.

I'm sure that would be a pay upgrade, right?
Posted by DLev45
Member since Aug 2018
731 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:06 am to
While Bediako's offensive numbers don't lie, I have liked the looks where he receives the pass at the FT line and distributes from there. We haven't done it nearly enough, IMO.

I know that's not generally our offense, but he has shown he has soft enough hands to catch it, and at 7-foot, teams aren't going to be able to deny him there.

Rather than him coming up from the baseline to set the screen at the top of the key EVERY SINGLE POSSESSION, have him stop at the FT line, receive the pass from JQ/JD in the high post, and have people cut off of him or use him as a screener with the ball in his hand. See if he can add something as a facilitator.
This post was edited on 1/27/22 at 10:07 am
Posted by Crede15
Member since Jun 2009
17250 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:06 am to
I believe in the numbers, but some of Gurley's make absolutely no sense to me.

How is he efficient from 3? I think I've asked that like 8 times, and I still can't wrap my head around it. He's sitting at 26.8%.

His defensive rebounding numbers pass the eye test, unfortunately. But I'm open to the idea that I'm just too critical of his play, possibly because of higher expectations.

For a while, my favorite lineup was JQ-Shack-Keon-Miles-Bediako. The numbers don't seem to support that (and Bediako has struggled lately), so I'll change my stance.

Now I'd replace Bediako with Gary. Switch everything, play chaotic, hope you don't get completely destroyed on the boards.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:10 am to
quote:

I believe in the numbers, but some of Gurley's make absolutely no sense to me.


I don't know this for sure, but I'd imagine that perhaps it is due to his selection of 3 PT shots.

- 16 Open Catch and shoot 3s - 1.13 SQPPP (80th)
- 4 Open Catch and shoot 3s off PnR - 1.11 SQPPP (78th)
- 7 Pick and Pop 3s - 1.06 SQPPP (73rd)
- 14 guarded catch and shoot 3s - 0.90 SQPP (52nd)

So, 1/3 of his 3s have been guarded and his numbers on those are terrible. I'd imagine that has quite a bit of influence.

quote:

For a while, my favorite lineup was JQ-Shack-Keon-Miles-Bediako. The numbers don't seem to support that (and Bediako has struggled lately), so I'll change my stance.

Now I'd replace Bediako with Gary. Switch everything, play chaotic, hope you don't get completely destroyed on the boards.


Agree - and it's not like Bediako won't play. He has to. He's just kind of a waste on offense that, outside of a handful of PnR to the rim dunks/layups, has no value and clogs things up.
This post was edited on 1/27/22 at 10:11 am
Posted by Crede15
Member since Jun 2009
17250 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:12 am to
Possibly stupid question: is that team points scored every time he shoots a 3 on a particular possession? So maybe we tend to get a lot of offensive rebounds on his missed 3's?

Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:15 am to
quote:

Possibly stupid question: is that team points scored every time he shoots a 3 on a particular possession? So maybe we tend to get a lot of offensive rebounds on his missed 3's?



It's basically, the average for the player on the shot they get (where it is, is it covered, is it off a pass/dribble). Whether they make it or not on that specific shot isn't even used in the equation (it is in the overall, because if you miss a bunch of guarded 3s your average PPP on guarded 3s is going to drop, making it a less advantageous shot for you).

But to answer your question about offensive rebounds, no, an offensive rebound starts a new possession. So if we miss a 3, that possession ends. If we get the offensive rebound, that starts a new possession.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28553 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:15 am to
quote:

I'm sure that would be a pay upgrade, right?


Eh, great seats to amazing Big South games and free popcorn
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:17 am to
quote:

Eh, great seats to amazing Big South games and free popcorn



HONEY, I GOT YOU FLOOR SEATS FOR TONIGHT AGAINST LONGWOOD


Posted by DLev45
Member since Aug 2018
731 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:17 am to
quote:

Agree - and it's not like Bediako won't play. He has to. He's just kind of a waste on offense that, outside of a handful of PnR to the rim dunks/layups, has no value and clogs things up.


That's precisely why I tossed out the idea of seeing what he could manage catching it in the high-post and being a hand-off screener with people cutting off of him.

Bediako may be able to screen for JD in the high-post WITH the ball, and then JD cuts by him for the handoff already headed downhill so JD isn't having to try to create a blow-by off the dribble. Same for JQ.

Adding a little basic high-post action to our base PnR might open things up for our guards.

This post was edited on 1/27/22 at 10:21 am
Posted by Crede15
Member since Jun 2009
17250 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:20 am to
quote:

It's basically, the average for the player on the shot they get (where it is, is it covered, is it off a pass/dribble). Whether they make it or not on that specific shot isn't even used in the equation (it is in the overall, because if you miss a bunch of guarded 3s your average PPP on guarded 3s is going to drop, making it a less advantageous shot for you).

But to answer your question about offensive rebounds, no, an offensive rebound starts a new possession. So if we miss a 3, that possession ends. If we get the offensive rebound, that starts a new possession.



Got it, yep that makes sense.

I mean him being in the 73rd percentile still doesn't completely make sense to me, but whatever The rest of it makes sense.
Posted by Crede15
Member since Jun 2009
17250 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:21 am to
quote:

That's precisely why I tossed out the idea of seeing what he could manage catching it in the high-post and being a hand-off screener with people cutting off of him.

Bediako may be able to screen for JD in the high-post WITH the ball, and then JD cuts by him for the handoff already headed downhill so JD isn't having to try to create a blow-by off the dribble. Same for JQ.

Adding a little basic high-post action to our base PnR might open things up for our guards.


I thought his passing from the top of the key/off the roll was pretty impressive earlier in the year. But he also had more space in some of those non-conference games than he's getting now that we're in conference.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:21 am to
quote:

I mean him being in the 73rd percentile still doesn't completely make sense to me, but whatever The rest of it makes sense.



yea, I mean, I'm with you. Part of it is also that shooting 3s are just inherently more "efficient" than shooting 2s in the analytical world.

But yea, in that lineup I'm not looking for Gurley to be shooting pick n pop 3s. Only if he's wide open at the top of the key or in the corner off a pass . I will say, I didn't realize how efficient he is on the roll part of the PnR. After I saw those numbers I thought back through it and realized I'd probably sold him way short on that aspect offensively.
This post was edited on 1/27/22 at 10:24 am
Posted by DLev45
Member since Aug 2018
731 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 10:24 am to
quote:

I thought his passing from the top of the key/off the roll was pretty impressive earlier in the year. But he also had more space in some of those non-conference games than he's getting now that we're in conference.


Yeah, that's what I was thinking about. The instances I am remembering are when he has caught the bounce pass on the PnR 10-feet out and had to pull up to keep from drawing a charge.

IIRC, he has been fairly competent at passing out of it.

If JD is starting at PG and has had a hard time using his athleticism to blow by buys off the dribble with the high screen, JD being #1 and Bediako #5 could get JD going downhill without the ball and able to use said athleticism and vision off the hand-off screen.



It's not that I'm advocating going from a high-screen, drive and kick offense to a high-post split offense. Just talking about mixing in some looks to see if it can unlock a little more offensively out of both Davison and Bediako. It's basically the same concept, but changing who has the ball during the screen.
This post was edited on 1/27/22 at 10:48 am
Posted by TidalSurge1
Ft Walton Beach
Member since Sep 2016
36467 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 1:04 pm to
LINK ]Nate Oats breaks down Tide's top issues on both ends of the court (BOL)

Posted by BigBird09
Member since May 2012
6046 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 4:59 pm to
I standby saying a JD-Shack-Ellis-Miles-Gary lineup would give us the best results.

Makes us very switchable defensively and give us the best combination of driving/passing/shooting/rebounding
This post was edited on 1/27/22 at 5:02 pm
Posted by DT55Forever1
Member since Jan 2018
3154 posts
Posted on 1/27/22 at 7:49 pm to
Thank you for all the hard work and information.

Unfortunately, I think there is a difference between our better line ups and an actual good line up. I don't know that we have 5-9 players we can put on the floor together to be a consistently good line up. If guys are hitting 3s and aren't turning it over every other possession, we can do something.
Not trying to offend, but whatever analytics are showing that Gurley is an efficient three point shooter and that we have any elite passers (considering our turnovers), you may want a refund. It is not translating to game results.

Aside from the shooting and turnovers, defending the opponent's point guard is one of the biggest issues with any line up we put out there. Whether it's Q or JD, neither can guard the opponent's PG and keep them out of the paint. Until those two improve that or Oats finds a way to mask the issue, we don't have an effective line up.
I think the physical capabilities are there for many of our guys, but whether it's heart, confidence or character, it's just not working right now.

I do believe it can turn around but it may not come until a roster turnover. We need leaders, consistent defensive intensity and solid point guard play.
(I will say JD has been showing improvement in key areas. His continued improvement and having a healthy Miles and Gary will be key. Hopefully, Q will wake up and be a playmaker again but not sure his heart is in it)
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