Looking at the schedule, TCU will likely drop a game and so will Oregon

With the overwhelming money on the Vols, the line ticked down to Tennessee -7.5 on Friday, and that's when the "Pros," aka professional bettors, got involved. Around 10 a.m. PT, Friday, Caesars took a $110,000 bet on Georgia -7.5. Thirty minutes later, the book took a $362,000 bet on the Bulldogs -8.

"I was just waiting for the sharp money to come, and it just wasn't coming. We were just so lopsided [on Tennessee]," Joey Feazel, lead college football trader for Caesars Sportsbook, recalled. "And, then on Friday, pop-pop."

In less than 24 hours, the money on the point spread had gone from 87% on Tennessee to 68% on Georgia. Other sportsbooks saw big professional money on Georgia, too. The sportsbook at The Borgata in Atlantic City also reported taking a $200,000 bet on the Bulldogs around the same time as Caesars on Friday.

1. Georgia
2. OSU/Michigan Winner
3. 1-Loss PAC 12 Winner (Oregon, USC, UCLA)
4. Tennessee

5. OSU/ Michigan Loser
6. TCU who will have at least one loss

They’ll probably switch 3 & 4 to avoid a first round repeat matchup.

The loser of the OSU/Michigan game shouldn’t get in. Neither team has any great wins outside of the team that beats the other.

Tennessee is in an enviable position given the fact that the West champion will likely have at least 2 losses (otherwise, Ole Miss will need to win out + LSU losing a game). All they need to do is take care of business and I would still consider them having a great chance to make the playoff, just like Alabama in 2017

Don't be surprised if Oregon gets the benefit of the doubt if they go 12-1 with their only loss being against the No. 1 team this year in the first week of the season.

The committee will take 2 huge factors into account against Tennessee; 1. they didn’t even win their division and got to sit like cucks as other teams play in a conference championship game, and 2. they will have the worst defensive rankings of any team ever invited to the playoff. It’s hard to take a team seriously when your defense is 81st in the country and no national champ has won with anything worse then 20th.

This is making the big assumption that you don't lose to USC.

The good version of Texas showing up against TCU and Utah being an agent of chaos in the PAC 12 would open up VOLS path to the CFP like the parting of the Red Sea.

Also preferably need tOSU to beat Michigan because I do NOT want a scenario where the committee is choosing between a 1 loss VOLS and 1 loss tOSU imo

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Look who Oregon’s QB is. Yes he has had a great year, but Bo Nix was an average QB in the sec for 4 years.

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I don't think the playoffs count any of the prior 4 years into a single year's selection. If they do, Tennessee would be screwed

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Bo Nix has had his chance for years to beat good teams and he hasn’t been able to. I think Oregon gets left out of the group of 4.

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Damn. I forgot that quarterback was the only criteria.

Should've known that Alabama won the playoffs because Jake Coker was clearly the single greatest player in college football that year

You wish.

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If LSU beats Georgia in the SECCG you’re definitely out no matter what else happens.

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In this hypothetical, what happens? Georgia gets in as the No. 2-4 seed like last year, and LSU is left out? Or LSU gets in with 2 losses, and every other 1-loss SEC team is out? Or both get in?

I guess the last would make the most sense. Even though there has never been a 2-loss team in the playoff, there would've been had Auburn won the SEC championship in 2017.

If LSU somehow drops one to A&M or Arkansas and still wins the west and SEC championship game with 3 total losses, that will create the most upside down selection week we have maybe ever seen in college football

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TCU will likely drop a game and so will Oregon

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Texas could beat TCU. I don't think Baylor will. It might be a stretch to say they are likely to lose one, though.

Who do you think is going to beat Oregon?

That said, upsets happen and what you said is possible.

What will hurt Tennessee is if TCU and Oregon win out they both would finish higher than Tennessee by virtue of playing in their championship game.