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StatTiger on AU vs. LSU

Posted on 9/27/16 at 6:42 am
Posted by beatbammer
Member since Sep 2010
38002 posts
Posted on 9/27/16 at 6:42 am
https://www.aufamily.com/forums/topic/152960-upon-further-review-lsu/

quote:

Through 4 games, the Auburn defense has allowed only one third-down conversion during the second quarter from 12 attempts.

Auburn has surrendered 12 plays of 30-yards or more on defense through 4 games. The Tigers gave up only 15 such plays during the entire 2015 season.

Speaking of big plays allowed, 36 percent of the yardage surrendered this season has occurred during only 4 percent of the plays defended. Auburn is currently allowing 5.52 yards per play. Take away the 12 big plays and the defense has allowed only 3.69 plays during the remaining 96 percent of the snaps defended.

The Auburn offense has produced only 8 plays of 30-yards or more. Last season, the Auburn offense had only 4 such plays through 4 games.

Last year through 4 games, the Auburn defense allowed 46 percent of the plays defended to gain at least 5-yards. This season it has dropped down to 38 percent through four games.

61 percent of Auburn's tackles for loss on defense has occurred during the first-half of their four games.

Through 4 games, 46 percent of the snaps defended by the Auburn defense has resulted in 2-yards or less. Last season through 4 games it was 42 percent.

82.7 percent of Auburn's first down snaps against LSU were run plays.

Through 4 games, 51.9 percent of Auburn's first down snaps have netted 3-yards or less. This is a continued issue arising from the 2015 season. Last year through the first 4 games, 47.1 percent of Auburn's first down plays netted 3-yards or less.

Auburn allowed 7 tackles for loss on first down against Texas A&M. The Auburn offense allowed only 1 tackle for loss on first down against LSU.

Through 4 games, 84.2 percent of Auburn's total yardage has been produced by freshman and sophomores. This is likely the primary reason why we are witnessing a slow progression on the offensive of the football.

There has been progression on offense this season. Auburn averaged 3.7 yards per play against Clemson, 4.5 yards against Texas A&M and 5.2 yards against LSU. Auburn clearly needs to be more polished but they are improving.

Sean White is currently No. 4 among the 12 SEC quarterbacks who have attempted at least 60 passes, when it comes to producing pass-plays of 15-yards or more.

Last season through 4 games, Auburn's offense had produced only 19 impact plays or plays of 15-yards or more. This season the offense has produced 34 such plays. The top-3 impact players as of today are Tony Stevens (8), Kerryon Johnson (5) and Kamryn Pettway (5).

During the last 25 years of Auburn football, 14.7 percent of Auburn's offensive possessions have began on the opponent's side of the field. This season it has dropped to only 4.0%, the lowest percentage during the past 25 seasons.

The top-3 most targeted receivers through 4 games are Tony Stevens (23.3%), Marcus Davis (17.8%) and Ryan Davis (16.4%).

Last season Sean White was the 7th most efficient passer on 3rd down in the SEC. This season he has moved up to No. 4 in the SEC with a rating of 145.3 on 3rd down. Last season he possessed a rating of 125.4.

Sean White has attempted more passes on 3rd down than any other QB in the SEC and the second fewest pass attempts on 1st down than any starting QB in the SEC. This must change for White to reach his full potential.


68.0% of Sean White's pass attempts have been targeted within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. This is way too high when you consider he is completing 55% of his passes beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage compared to his 43% last season. Cam Newton completed 53% of his passes beyond 10-yards of the line of scrimmage and 44% of his passes beyond 20-yards. Sean White has completed 50% of his passes beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage.

Based on the statistical report cards I compile each week, here is the order of strength through 4 games. Special Teams (69.2%), Defense (60.0%) and Offense (41.7%).

Auburn was horrible in short-yardage situations against LSU. The Tigers went 2 of 6 in situations of 2-yards or less needed to convert. For the season, Auburn has converted only 60.0%, way off from previous averages. (Only 1 team finished below 72% during the past seven seasons)

Over the past 35 seasons, Auburn has forced a turnover every 31 snaps. Auburn's current ratio for a forced-turnover is 1 every 93 snaps. If this ratio continues, it will easily become the worst turnover ratio by an Auburn defense since 1981.

After surrendering 27 tackles for loss combined to Clemson and Texas A&M, Auburn was tackled for loss only 4 times against LSU. Of Auburn's 36 tackles for loss surrendered, 17 have come on pass plays.

During Auburn's last 33 games, the opponent has produced a better yards per play average on first down, 17 times.

During Auburn's last 10 conference games, the Tigers have run the ball 75.4% of the time on first down, averaging 3.96 yards per rush.

Prior to the last 8 games, the Auburn defense had gone 17 consecutive games without holding their opponent to "3 & out" on 33 percent of the possessions defended. During the last 8 games, the Auburn defense has reached their goal, 5 times.

From 1993-2016, Auburn has scored inside the red zone, 84.6% of the time with a TD percentage of 61.2%. Over the past two seasons, Auburn has scored 86.5% of the time but their TD percentage has dropped to 52.7%.


Bolded and italics above bodes well for our future (and maybe even our near future, hopefully).

Bolded and underlined above is EXACTLY what many of us keep trying to explain to the SW SUX DERP DERP'ers... Gus has been placing him into predictable 3rd and long throws on a regular basis. And, even then, he is having success in those situations. How much better might he be if his coach wasn't telling the opposing defenses "Here's my QB and we're gonna pass... come and get him!"?
Posted by TigerPaw1
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Apr 2011
16979 posts
Posted on 9/27/16 at 6:50 am to
thanks for posting

quote:

Speaking of big plays allowed, 36 percent of the yardage surrendered this season has occurred during only 4 percent of the plays defended. Auburn is currently allowing 5.52 yards per play. Take away the 12 big plays and the defense has allowed only 3.69 plays during the remaining 96 percent of the snaps defended.


I think a lot of this comes from Steele's aggressive scheme. I mean when they were in the redzone at the end of the game he ran a cover 0 all out blitz. I love the fact that our playcalling on defense has gone from bend don't break to we are going to get your arse but I do think as a result you are going to see more big plays

quote:

There has been progression on offense this season. Auburn averaged 3.7 yards per play against Clemson, 4.5 yards against Texas A&M and 5.2 yards against LSU. Auburn clearly needs to be more polished but they are improving.


This is big to me. It shows we are getting better each week which is all you can ask. Hopefully it leads to some more points

quote:

Over the past 35 seasons, Auburn has forced a turnover every 31 snaps. Auburn's current ratio for a forced-turnover is 1 every 93 snaps. If this ratio continues, it will easily become the worst turnover ratio by an Auburn defense since 1981.



I don't see this continuing. I expect some big turnover games in the future out of this defense

quote:

Auburn was horrible in short-yardage situations against LSU. The Tigers went 2 of 6 in situations of 2-yards or less needed to convert. For the season, Auburn has converted only 60.0%, way off from previous averages. (Only 1 team finished below 72% during the past seven seasons)


Like I said in other thread I think Gus is so used to having an OL that can dominate that he has struggled adjusting to one that isn't as dominant. I am hoping we make that adjustment soon because running right at the teeth of a defense with this OL on obvious short yardage situations just isn't working
Posted by FearlessFreep
Baja Alabama
Member since Nov 2009
17273 posts
Posted on 9/27/16 at 9:00 am to
quote:

Speaking of big plays allowed, 36 percent of the yardage surrendered this season has occurred during only 4 percent of the plays defended.
144 of LSU's 338 yards of offense(42.6%) came on just 4 plays out of 59 offensive snaps (6.8%).
This post was edited on 9/27/16 at 9:03 am
Posted by CaptainBrannigan
Good Ole Rocky Top Tennessee
Member since Jan 2010
21644 posts
Posted on 9/27/16 at 9:40 am to
quote:

uring Auburn's last 10 conference games, the Tigers have run the ball 75.4% of the time on first down, averaging 3.96 yards per rush. 


No surprise here.

The one time I specifically remeber we threw on first down late in the game we went 3 and out that drive.
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
41062 posts
Posted on 9/27/16 at 10:18 am to
We have got to be less predictable on 1st down and more productive. If fricking StatTiger knows our tendencies, don't you think our opponents do?
Posted by The_SwAUggford
Member since Jan 2013
2817 posts
Posted on 9/28/16 at 11:33 am to
I really hope that's just a statement and not an attempt to shite on playcalling
Posted by CleCoTiger
The Earth
Member since Oct 2010
72 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:52 am to
From one of Stat's later posts at AU Family Forums: LINK /


"Though the offense has struggled this season, they are No. 2 nationally in generating red zone opportunities against power-5 competition."

***

#2 in generating red zone opportunities? If our Tigers just clean up a few mistakes, miss a couple of fewer blocks and/or give our QB a fraction or two of a second more time to operate then points start coming in bunches.

#2 in generating red zone opportunities against Power-5 competition after facing the likes of top ten Clemson with DC Bruce Venables, or John The Chief" Chavez's defense against top ten aTm, not to mention Dave Aranda's defensive unit at LSU in three of the first four games is pretty impressive. Wondering which team generates more opportunities and what kind of opposition they have played...
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 6:54 pm
Posted by beatbammer
Member since Sep 2010
38002 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:54 am to
quote:

#2 in generating red zone opportunities? If our Tigers just clean up a few mistakes, miss a couple of fewer blocks and/or give our QB a fraction of two of a second more time to operate then points start coming in bunches.

#2 in generating red zone opportunities against Power-5 competition after facing the likes of top ten Clemson with DC Bruce Venables, or John The Chief" Chavez's defense against top ten aTm, not to mention Dave Aranda's defensive unit at LSU in three of the first four games is pretty impressive. Wondering which team generates more opportunities and what kind of opposition they have played...



You would like to hope, considering this, that cleaning up a few things, a little more creative play calling in the red zone, that it will work out well.

Fingers crossed.
Posted by TigerPaw1
Chattanooga, TN
Member since Apr 2011
16979 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 8:01 am to
quote:

#2 in generating red zone opportunities? If our Tigers just clean up a few mistakes, miss a couple of fewer blocks and/or give our QB a fraction of two of a second more time to operate then points start coming in bunches.

#2 in generating red zone opportunities against Power-5 competition after facing the likes of top ten Clemson with DC Bruce Venables, or John The Chief" Chavez's defense against top ten aTm, not to mention Dave Aranda's defensive unit at LSU in three of the first four games is pretty impressive. Wondering which team generates more opportunities and what kind of opposition they have played...


That's why despite before the season many people hoping for a 2-2 record people are pissed we aren't 4-0 because we have had many opportunities to make that happen. I am hopeful we have started turning a corner on offense because our defense is good enough to put us in position to win but needs offenses help to finish it off
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 9:00 am to
quote:

144 of LSU's 338 yards of offense(42.6%) came on just 4 plays out of 59 offensive snaps (6.8%).



For comparison as a benchmark

119 of Auburn's 388 yards of offense (30.6%) came on just 4 plays out of 75 offensive snaps (5.3%)
Posted by CleCoTiger
The Earth
Member since Oct 2010
72 posts
Posted on 9/30/16 at 7:13 pm to
quote:

That's why despite before the season many people hoping for a 2-2 record people are pissed we aren't 4-0 because we have had many opportunities to make that happen. I am hopeful we have started turning a corner on offense because our defense is good enough to put us in position to win but needs offenses help to finish it off


I hear TigerPaw1. I really think that on offense our Tigers are not far away from being good. The issues in the red zone have all looked correctable to me, and now that Malzahn has turned over play calls to his offensive coordiantor CRL (with the able assistance of Coach Herb Hand looking down from the booth), points are about to start coming in bunches. (Yes, this old Ox sees everything through orange and blue colored glasses.)
Posted by 88TIger
Member since Nov 2012
2069 posts
Posted on 10/1/16 at 8:06 am to
We also have to consider that in the first 4 games this year we have played 3 ranked opponents. I don't remember the rankings of the first 4 teams last year but I know at least two weren't ranked.
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