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re: Portal Extravaganza - our transfer numbers have now reached legal drinking age edition
Posted on 12/20/25 at 1:58 pm to auburn2eugene
Posted on 12/20/25 at 1:58 pm to auburn2eugene
quote:
How one defines a “bust” must also be taken into consideration
You're right about the definition, I'm grading based on impact on the field at Auburn. Cowart did nothing here, did OK at Maryland and then got drafted off measurables (imo). Regarding Duke, to me, if a 5* WR is signed, I would expect that level of talent to produce at least a single 1k receiving yard season. For a variety of reasons that hasn't happened at Auburn, be it by crappy scheme, OL, QB, etc.
Roc did nothing at Auburn and transferred to Jax State.
Westerman transferred out.
I do disagree that a 5* suggests a 1st round draft slot, to me it's more a guarantee that they will be drafted. The amount of chances a highly rated recruit gets affords a lot of wiggle room.
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Posted on 12/20/25 at 2:17 pm to jangalang
How do you know he wouldn’t pay for Jace Matthews? Sometimes players like somewhere else better although many on this board don’t understand that.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 2:21 pm to jangalang
quote:
Give me elite 4 stars. They will also cost a pretty penny and Golesh wouldn't pay that for 4* Jace Matthews
Not sure how you are so certain that Matthews was a pure money thing rather than coaching turnover combined with him having a relative get hired at Ole Miss. Regardless, Jase had a major knee injury this year and won't even play next year, and with that type of injury who knows if he'll even be a good receiver when he plays sophomore year. A torn ACL is kind of a big deal for a WR compared to some positions. I certainly wouldn't blame Golesh for not wanting to put a chunk of his NIL budget betting on that given the circumstances if so.
quote:
We need Keldrick Faulk, Connor Lew, Austin Golson, Carlton Davis, Dee Ford, and so on.
I agree with your sentiment here, we definitely need some high level four stars consistently each class if we are going to get where we need to go. But high three stars and solid three stars that are coached up can be equally as good. Just take the list of players you just mentioned as a good example of that.
Lew was either a high three star or low 4 depending on the site (90 grade guy who was like 450ish ranked on the composite). Dee Ford was a basic 3 star undersized edge. Carlton Davis was ranked 330ish on the composite and a 90ish grade guy. Andrew Williams was just like Lew (90 grade low 4). Jay Crawford was a 3 star or low 4 depending the site, same for Blocton. None of those guys were top 200 prospects. The only person you just mentioned that was a top 150 guy considered a sure fire prospect was Faulk.
Solid three stars can make up the bulk of your class and you can still be successful. If you look at our 2024 class the guys ranked in the 200-500 range (88-91 grade guys) have had way more success than our top 150ish 93+ grade guys.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 2:46 pm to sbr2
quote:
I do disagree that a 5* suggests a 1st round draft slot, to me it's more a guarantee that they will be drafted.
247 says something very different
LINK
Director of Scouting Andrew Ivins provides transparent insight into the rankings process, what the rankings mean, and what 247Sports is doing that no one else in the industry is.
IVINS: "We mirror our Top247 after the NFL Draft. There are 32 first-round picks every year, which is why we have 32 five-stars. So, if we award a prospect a fifth star, we believe that they have one of the best chances out of anyone in the cycle to eventually blossom into a Day 1 pick.
And I’m old enough to remember the last 1,000 yard WR signing with us after a stint as a professional baseball player. But we have only had 2 WRs go over 1000 yards ever. We have had a few come close like KLS last year and Adams in 2009 and 2010 but we just can’t seem to get them over that hump. I truly hope CAG will change that.
And you are right. Those 3 did nothing at Auburn but all 3 ended up playing in the league. So it’s hard to site them as complete busts…
This post was edited on 12/20/25 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 12/20/25 at 2:55 pm to auyushu
quote:
But high three stars and solid three stars that are coached up can be equally as good.
Is there a glitch in the matrix or something? Didn’t we just try and go that route and fired the coach less than 2 years after signing him?
If we want to be Mississippi State, Arkansas, USCe, or Vandy then sure load up those 3 stars. If you want to win in the SEC you cannot rely on hitting on 3 star stars.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 2:58 pm to auyushu
Jase is a good discussion point. We have about 30 million in NIL and so do several other teams.
We have a new coach that everyone expects to win now, not a few years from now.
Its the SECOND knee injury, to the same knee. He wont play next season. You sign him, he rehabs for a year.....and then could leave without ever playing a down, and there goes a big chunk of change you could have spent on a good OL in the portal this year.
No one is arguing we need to spend to get players, its spending correctly. Crawford aint worth a million bucks, certainly not with what we have on the roster and what will be available in the portal.
Now if we spend everything to keep every player on the team, and have little for the portal some of you will be complaining about that. You cant have it both ways, so you manage the budget against current results.
We have a new coach that everyone expects to win now, not a few years from now.
Its the SECOND knee injury, to the same knee. He wont play next season. You sign him, he rehabs for a year.....and then could leave without ever playing a down, and there goes a big chunk of change you could have spent on a good OL in the portal this year.
No one is arguing we need to spend to get players, its spending correctly. Crawford aint worth a million bucks, certainly not with what we have on the roster and what will be available in the portal.
Now if we spend everything to keep every player on the team, and have little for the portal some of you will be complaining about that. You cant have it both ways, so you manage the budget against current results.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 3:11 pm to auburn2eugene
quote:
We mirror our Top247 after the NFL Draft. There are 32 first-round picks every year, which is why we have 32 five-stars. So, if we award a prospect a fifth star, we believe that they have one of the best chances out of anyone in the cycle to eventually blossom into a Day 1 pick.
That's interesting, didn't know they did that.
Google says the following for 5*s and being drafted:
Five-star high school recruits, representing the top ~30-32 players nationally (top 0.01%), have a roughly 58% chance of being drafted into the NFL, with top-15 ranked prospects having a higher 62.1% "hit rate" (rounds 1-4). These elite prospects, often considered future first-rounders, frequently display superior athleticism, technique, and high football IQ.
The above kind of aligns with my impression that being evaluated that highly coming out of high school leads to a better chance of being drafted at all. You're right that it leads to better chances at 1st round but that is really hard to do in any case.
It's kind of crazy that Auburn hasn't had a 1k receiver in so long. I get that we were RBU there for a while but cmon
In the scheme of making it to the next level, yes those guys are not busts but to me - relative to their high school evaluations and not being highly productive at Auburn leads me to label them busts. Because realistically all I care about is production at AU.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 3:29 pm to auburn2eugene
quote:
there a glitch in the matrix or something? Didn’t we just try and go that route and fired the coach less than 2 years after signing him?
Do you have a reading comprehension problem? You quoted me, and literally the sentence before that (that you for whatever reason left out of your quote) I said we needed multiple high 4 star prospects per class to get where we needed to go. So miss me with your selective quoting strawman argument bullshite.
The fact of the matter however is that about 50% of the players drafted each year in the NFL draft are 3 stars or less. So yes, you can very much have the bulk of your team be high 3 star types, but your yeam can't all be that if you are expecting to compete for championships yearly. Your need a solid mix of studs in there too.
But scoffing at transfers from lower levels that were 3 stars is dumb, there are tons of players each year that go from lower schools or transfer from them that go into the pros and become pro studs. Eric Singleton was an 86 grade 3 star for example and was expected to go first round this year before he got his season destroyed by Freeze's crappy offense.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 3:56 pm to TigerProwl24
quote:
So if an employee of yours loved it and did a great job for you but left for a potential better opportunity, and it didn’t work out, you wouldn’t accept them back?
it all depends on the conversations. I have had the conversation that someone should leave me for better opportunities and I've had people try to burn the place down while quitting.
If a player came to me and said that he wants to stay but he feels that others are willing to pay him a lot more money and he would like the opportunity to speak to them, I would let him with the understanding that im not playing a back and forth of leverage.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 4:03 pm to Warfarer
This chat has went in a weird tangent. Anyway, I dont think Cam stays. He has 1 year left, and needs to show he is the guy. I dont think we can give him that unless Brown is a dude at QB. We can use that money to solidify the line.
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