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re: IM gonna start a thread
Posted on 9/15/22 at 10:24 am to TheJones
Posted on 9/15/22 at 10:24 am to TheJones
Thanks. Yea, it really is a great sled. Perfect for what I do down here. Has everything I could possibly want for fishing and plenty of space and comfort for hanging out on the sand bars with my wife and her friends. Great ride and gets you around pretty fast...
Ready to get out. Business has slowed a little and I am ready to spend some time fishing and relaxing on the many awesome sand bars we have here.
Ready to get out. Business has slowed a little and I am ready to spend some time fishing and relaxing on the many awesome sand bars we have here.
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Posted on 9/15/22 at 10:33 am to LanierSpots
That’s a nice looking boat and one that can move on the water pretty fast. Jelly
Posted on 9/15/22 at 10:37 am to jangalang
quote:
quote:
That's all because of the investing firms/agencies going in and putting in offers way above list, with no contingencies about inspections/improvements.
Yep. Good luck banking on a Great Recession to reset the housing market back to 2009 levels. Firms are setting a floor now.
This is true. I'm actually in a tangentially involved industry and investment firms offer cash, 0-7 day inspection period, and a quick close - pretty tough for the average joe to beat.
Will be interesting to see how this all plays out because the American dream is somewhat dead.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 10:59 am to ALhunter
quote:Just curious, what do you think will happen if we experience another housing market crash like 2008? I feel like one is inevitable because they didn't do a damn thing to address the obvious fraud that led to the first one.
nvestment firms offer cash, 0-7 day inspection period, and a quick close - pretty tough for the average joe to beat.
Will be interesting to see how this all plays out because the American dream is somewhat dead.
How do you think the investment banks will come out if the market tanks again?
Posted on 9/15/22 at 11:27 am to FearlessFreep
quote:
How do you think the investment banks will come out if the market tanks again?
Just fine because they'll be given bailouts...again.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 11:32 am to LanierSpots
Nice flipping deck.....
Posted on 9/15/22 at 12:14 pm to FearlessFreep
quote:
Just curious, what do you think will happen if we experience another housing market crash like 2008? I feel like one is inevitable because they didn't do a damn thing to address the obvious fraud that led to the first one.
Sorry for the long response but this question is pretty loaded and nuanced - probably shouldn't really be in the AU sports board but alas.
I personally don't think a 2008-like housing crash is going to happen this time around unless there's some major geopolitical event. Leverage on the housing side is much more modest than it was in 2008, even though home prices are really high (result of 08). It freaks me out a bit that the 0% home loans and other programs are starting to sneak their way back in though. More crazy on the housing side IMO is the fact that ownership of homes is making a transition from private ownership and a store of wealth to institutional ownership. A larger and larger percentage of Americans end up owning basically nothing. However, my view on this is a bit more nuanced in that US policies starting in the 60s and 70s set the stage for what's going on today. Being born around 1950 IMO is basically the best you could have ever had it in the US.
The banking system in general is better capitalized than in '08. It really feels like identity politics snuck in and shifted America's focus from financial/wealth reform to "social justice", which is unfortunate as the real schism in the US is financial not social, and it's really the 0.01% I'm referencing here which is basically global now and above the law. We have the highest financial inequality since the industrial revolution.
In terms of the broader market, COVID would have crashed it but gov stimulus was the highest in history since the great depression, which is now coming back to bite us as inflation. Ray Dalio has some really good books on the subject. I think the government would rather print stimulus and delever via inflation for several years than rip the bandaid off and have another '08 anytime soon.
Edit: One last hilarious thing to add is that the "Inflation Reduction Act" is actually inflationary stimulus in the near term and at best kicking the can from an inflation perspective. Gotta love bill names.
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 9/15/22 at 12:24 pm to ALhunter
We've had 0% interest rates for 15 years. The Feds artificially inflated ALL markets, not just the housing market.
So..... In order to fight inflation, they need to raise rates and slow down the economy. However, the more they raise rates, the more interest payments on our debt go up. For every 1% increase in interest rates, that means an additional $300 billion worth of interest payments. The same clowns that mismanaged us into this problem and now trying to manage us out of it and they can't.
Just wait until the BRICS countries form their own central currency and/or China invades Taiwan and/or Kamala takes over for Biden when he dies. IMO, yall ain't seen shite yet.
Sleep tight......
So..... In order to fight inflation, they need to raise rates and slow down the economy. However, the more they raise rates, the more interest payments on our debt go up. For every 1% increase in interest rates, that means an additional $300 billion worth of interest payments. The same clowns that mismanaged us into this problem and now trying to manage us out of it and they can't.
Just wait until the BRICS countries form their own central currency and/or China invades Taiwan and/or Kamala takes over for Biden when he dies. IMO, yall ain't seen shite yet.
Sleep tight......
Posted on 9/15/22 at 12:31 pm to Aubie Spr96
quote:
We've had 0% interest rates for 15 years. The Feds artificially inflated ALL markets, not just the housing market.
Correct - pegging rates at 0% to bolster growth puts us in a tough position to handle inflation without crashing the markets - not just stock market. Housing market, debt market, etc... the value of all income producing assets is impacted by interest rates.
On your second point - Yep - we've basically been living off the fact that we're the reserve currency and control most of the global financial system. That's going to come to an end at some point in the next 50 years and when it does the US's global position is going to change for the worse pretty dramatically most likely.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 12:32 pm to ALhunter
quote:This sounds spot on, unfortunately. And the irony is that a great deal of it is driven by our insane immigration policies, which are severely depressing wages for the bottom part of the 99.9%. The 'muh free market capitalism' goons don't seem to grasp that allowing a tiny fraction to control the nation's finances will always result in a race to the bottom for the rest of us.
It really feels like identity politics snuck in and shifted America's focus from financial/wealth reform to "social justice", which is unfortunate as the real schism in the US is financial not social, and it's really the 0.01% I'm referencing here which is basically global now and above the law. We have the highest financial inequality since the industrial revolution.
One of my oldest and dearest friends and bandmates worked cybersecurity for Dalio for a number of years. He's an unusual guy, but his insights on market dynamics are pretty sharp.
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 9/15/22 at 12:50 pm to ALhunter
Don't go posting this shite on the Money or Political Boards. They hate hearing it.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 12:55 pm to FearlessFreep
quote:
insane immigration policies
People seem to have a hard time grasping that increased supply leads to decreased price for some reason.
Yes - personally I think that there's a lot of room for improvement in many of our policies including immigration, healthcare, trade, taxation, etc... Unfortunately a huge percentage of the policy decisions are driven by money/special interest groups.
Edit: Also agree on Dalio - I'm happy he's publishing his theories. I've got a few friends who do/have worked at Bridgewater over the years mostly on the investing side.
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 9/15/22 at 1:47 pm to Aubie Spr96
Nobody with any kind of unrealized profit wants to hear that shite lol. Especially in risk equity aka 401ks.
As for me I get scared and panic but more ammo. Bought more today.
As for me I get scared and panic but more ammo. Bought more today.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 2:01 pm to jangalang
I am just pressing forward. Trying not to worry about the things I can’t change or the thing bad that can happen. Just keep living and trying not to waste what time I have left.
The investing stuff is over my head.
The investing stuff is over my head.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 2:06 pm to ALhunter
quote:
It really feels like identity politics snuck in and shifted America's focus from financial/wealth reform to "social justice", which is unfortunate as the real schism in the US is financial not social, and it's really the 0.01% I'm referencing here which is basically global now and above the law. We have the highest financial inequality since the industrial revolution.
Good take and now turning into tribal politics. People being influenced by propaganda and misinformation.
Best friend growing up calling other friends racist if they disagreed with his views even if they were based on fabrication. Sad state of affairs all around.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 2:19 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
Take it to the wacko politics board
Posted on 9/15/22 at 2:21 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
Sometimes shite just happens. Its the way you handle it that matters...
Amen to that.
Just went through something at work where one ofnour outside process vendors screwed up very bad. One of the managers was seeing red and ready to pull all of our business out but I made him get on a conference call and listen to their explanation and how they were going to make it right for us. They went above and beyond to make up for their mess up.
My guy is young and very reactionary so I had lunch with him and explained that we had spent a lot of time cultivating the relationship with that vendor and things like them making it more than right don't just happen if you threaten to cut ties over every mistake along the way.
Posted on 9/15/22 at 3:15 pm to GaTiger77
Never mind
This post was edited on 9/15/22 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 9/15/22 at 4:48 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
My guy is young and very reactionary so I had lunch with him and explained that we had spent a lot of time cultivating the relationship with that vendor and things like them making it more than right don't just happen if you threaten to cut ties over every mistake along the way.
If he actually listened to you and took your advice, he will probably grow into a much better leader..... It is just hard to listen to others when you are young and full of fire. Knowing who to listen to is a big part of it.
I am and have always been more of a realist. Im not really a blue sky kind of guy. I think that is one of the reasons so many here dont agree or like a lot of my takes.
At times I wanted to blow up over the boat issues but it would not have helped. They were working on it, not trying to hide them so we continued on. Hopefully, we are all repaired and up running next week 
Posted on 9/16/22 at 2:12 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
have always been more of a realist. Im not really a blue sky kind of guy.
Same here. I tell guys who work for me that they will make mistakes as well as others. It shows your character what you learn and carry forward. It doesn't go well to blow up every time there is a problem.
How can it be rectified is the key and how fast...great learning points for the younger leaders learning...
@LanierSpots - have you hit those bars around the bridge between Long Boat and AMI? If you are there on a Sunday we ride that route. Have you gotten out to the other areas north of AMI? There are a couple of spots out there that my wife's uncle used to take us out to when he had a boat...
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