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re: S&P+ Unit Matchups : #1 Alabama vs #4 Georgia, SEC Championship Game
Posted on 11/30/18 at 7:11 am to RolltidePA
Posted on 11/30/18 at 7:11 am to RolltidePA
quote:
Georgia looks strong over the last month, although their schedule has been relatively soft, while Bama's schedule difficulty ramped up.
I agree.
Comparing the UGA/AU game to the Bama/AU game is pretty interesting.
Stats are very similar against the Barn. Georgia had more success running the ball against them than we did. Other than that, very similar performances against a common opponent within a 2 week time frame.
Something I did find interesting is the amount of penalties UGA had in that game. 12/88.
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Posted on 11/30/18 at 7:34 am to westide
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/8/20 at 6:43 am
Posted on 11/30/18 at 8:05 am to Ol'DirtyCam
Yeah Cam it will 100% be your fault.
This post was edited on 11/30/18 at 8:35 am
Posted on 11/30/18 at 8:10 am to Kraut Dawg
Key variables of KJ not being 100% and Carlton Williams and a couple more players not playing had an affect. Those variables had a huge effect
Posted on 11/30/18 at 8:54 am to SummerOfGeorge
From Rollbamaroll on twitter. I'm not really a fan of common opponent analytics, but I did find this interesting.
"Alabama has held four common opponents - Missouri, LSU, Tennessee and Aubun - to 100 fewer yards and about six fewer points per game while scoring an additional 13 ppg against them.
"Alabama has held four common opponents - Missouri, LSU, Tennessee and Aubun - to 100 fewer yards and about six fewer points per game while scoring an additional 13 ppg against them.
Posted on 11/30/18 at 9:17 am to Bamadiver
quote:
"Alabama has held four common opponents - Missouri, LSU, Tennessee and Aubun - to 100 fewer yards and about six fewer points per game while scoring an additional 13 ppg against them.
Yea, we have consistently been the better team, which is why we are a favorite. However, they have consistently been just a little bit below us, which means that the gap isn't huge.
If we play a solid game we win. If we play a clunker or screw around we could lose. I think that is the consensus among pretty much everyone, UGA and Bama folks and neutral observers.
Posted on 11/30/18 at 10:55 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
If we play a clunker or screw around we could lose.
And that kind of sums it up. UGA, unlike everyone else on our schedule up until now, is capable of beating us if we don't play well.
Posted on 11/30/18 at 10:57 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
And that kind of sums it up. UGA, unlike everyone else on our schedule up until now, is capable of beating us if we don't play well.
Yea, I mean, outside of their LSU game we have both been remarkably consistent. Some ups and downs based on injuries and specific opponent matchups, but pretty similar throughout the year.
And the stats say we are better than them, but by the least amount we've been better than someone all year. So, yeah.
Posted on 11/30/18 at 10:59 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Yea, I mean, outside of their LSU game we have both been remarkably consistent. Some ups and downs based on injuries and specific opponent matchups, but pretty similar throughout the year.
I would say that UGA was leaking some oil before that LSU game....but that's just my amateur opinion.
What's their injury situation like?
Posted on 11/30/18 at 11:05 am to FairhopeTider
quote:
What's their injury situation like?
Bad - their OL is beat up, Cleveland is either out or very limited and Kendall Baker is out. Cade Mays is beat up. Monty Rice, their best LB, is either out or limited.
Posted on 11/30/18 at 11:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:Agreed. That game was a total anomaly. Part of my argument with LSU fans over why I felt like we would beat them straight up.
ea, I mean, outside of their LSU game we have both been remarkably consistent.
Posted on 11/30/18 at 11:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
Travis Reier's 5 predictions (I always think these are interesting)
1. Georgia will rush for more than 133 yards
2. Between the teams, no fewer than 12 players will catch passes
3. Bama will average more than 5 YPA rushing in the game
4. Alabama's defense will double up UGA's in tackles for loss
5. Alabama will win the game by a score of 37-27
1. Georgia will rush for more than 133 yards
2. Between the teams, no fewer than 12 players will catch passes
3. Bama will average more than 5 YPA rushing in the game
4. Alabama's defense will double up UGA's in tackles for loss
5. Alabama will win the game by a score of 37-27
Posted on 11/30/18 at 12:52 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Travis Reier's 5 predictions
It's almost scary how often he gets all of them right too.
Posted on 11/30/18 at 12:59 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
However, they have consistently been just a little bit below us, which means that the gap isn't huge.
See, this is where I disagree and don't really understand the S&P+ analytics.
There are 26 categories listed...
Bama Big: 11
Bama Small: 1
Even: 10 (Bama actually ahead in 9 of 10)
UGA Big: 1
UGA Small: 3
So Alabama is actually ahead in 21 of the 26 categories with 11 of them being significant.
The only category where UGA has a significant advantage is Offensive 3rd down distance, which means their offense is usually in 3rd and manageable. But on the flip side of that, their Offensive 3rd and short success rate is #62 while our Defensive 3rd and short success rate is #39, so that cancels out their advantage of getting into 3rd and short situations.
Outside of special teams, which can play a huge factor, I just don't see it. I think we're looking at a 42-20 type game.
Posted on 11/30/18 at 1:15 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
1. Georgia will rush for more than 133 yards
Swift 80.2 ypg
Holyfield 74.7 ypg
Reasonable, especially if UGA wants to control the clock and keep our offense on the sideline.
Edit: I keep forgetting about Justin Fields. I'm willing to bet we'll see some substitutions a-la Brees to Taysom Hill. So yes, I think UGA will get some chunks.
quote:
2. Between the teams, no fewer than 12 players will catch passes
Georgia has 7 scoring receivers
Bama has 8 scoring recievers
Edit: Interesting
Bama has thrown to 11 receivers. 8 have TDs.
UGA has thrown to 17 recievers. 7 have TDs.
quote:
3. Bama will average more than 5 YPA rushing in the game
Bama has 3 backs that individually avg over 5 YPA
As a team we avg 5.3 YPA
Add in UGA's front 7 with only 52 tackles for loss (4.2 per game) is a recipe for upping the YPA
quote:See #3 above and Bama's 92 tackles at 7.7 per game. If both teams simply play their game this one comes true easily.
4. Alabama's defense will double up UGA's in tackles for loss
quote:I keep thinking 28-17, but I could see this. I can also see the game being much worse if we are able to jump on the board quickly and force the issue.
5. Alabama will win the game by a score of 37-27
Here's hoping Josh Jacobs doesn't have the flu and hasn't either gotten it from another player or exposed anyone else.
This post was edited on 11/30/18 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 12/1/18 at 5:34 am to Bamadiver
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/8/20 at 6:42 am
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