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re: OT: Alabama Coronavirus Thread (see link in OP for case numbers and death totals in AL)
Posted on 4/18/20 at 11:16 am to TideSaint
Posted on 4/18/20 at 11:16 am to TideSaint
quote:
“Early on, if the WHO had not insisted to the world that China had no pneumonia epidemic, then everybody would have taken precautions,” he continued.
I like this guy.
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Posted on 4/18/20 at 11:17 am to wm72
quote:
I just don't like how all this news comes out like "we trusted China and look how they fooled us"
Anyone who ever trusted China the least little bit is a complete moron
Exactly. "They aren't incompetent. They trusted China." is a contradiction. The Chinese are about a half step above the North Koreans on the trustworthiness scale.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 11:38 am to Robot Santa
quote:
Exactly. "They aren't incompetent. They trusted China." is a contradiction.
Exactly. How can one admit to being incompetent more than to say "well we just trusted China"
Posted on 4/18/20 at 11:42 am to wm72
LINK ]Florida reports 1,400 new coronavirus cases Friday; largest single-day increase yet
- FOX 13 Tampa Bay
- FOX 13 Tampa Bay
quote:
The Florida Department of Health says the number of known cases of COVID-19 in the state rose by 1,413 Friday as the virus spreads and as more people get tested across the state. The total number of cases in Florida is now 24,753...
The state is not reporting a total number of "recovered' coronavirus patients or those currently hospitalized. As of Friday, 3,649 had been hospitalized for treatment at some point.
The number of deaths represents permanent Florida residents who have died from COVID-19. The number of non-Florida residents who have died from the coronavirus while in the state is not reported.
A total of 236,503 people have been tested in the state as of Friday evening, according to the Florida Department of Health...
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 11:49 am
Posted on 4/18/20 at 12:01 pm to TidalSurge1
China made up numbers at a time when there was no real life baseline. Then, as different nation's got the disease and a true baseline was established China's numbers just became more and more hilariously different and off.
They're not even good at lying.
They're not even good at lying.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 12:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
LINK ]‘An absolute war’ breaks out as coronavirus spreads in Alabama nursing homes (AL.com)
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 12:42 pm to TidalSurge1
LINK ]How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes (sciencemag)
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 12:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
They're not even good at lying.
They really just don't care
Posted on 4/18/20 at 1:08 pm to TidalSurge1
quote:
A total of 236,503 people have been tested in the state as of Friday evening, according to the Florida Department of Health...
This is just embarrassing since that is in a state of 22 million. So about 1% of the population has been tested and most of it down south. A private hospital in tiny Bonifay set up a drive thru testing site this past week and in 3 days tested more people than the rest of Bay county since the crisis began.
Most experts agree that testing is the keystone for relaxing restrictions but local health officials are just completely failing at making that a reality in many localities.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 1:41 pm to phil4bama
The Chinese government has brainwashed their citizens to the point that now black folks over there are being treated horribly. The citizens believe this originated in Africa.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 1:47 pm to phil4bama
quote:
Most experts agree that testing is the keystone for relaxing restrictions but local health officials are just completely failing at making that a reality in many localities.
Yeah, when Trump recently solicited the opinions of many CEOs of larger companies across the country about what it would take for a stronger comeback, the far and away #1 answer was free and easy access to widespread testing.
I suppose their logic is that if testing is to prevent people from spreading it, the worst thing you can have is restaurant staff / supermarket cashiers / service workers etc not getting tested since they don't have health insurance and are even more broke now than usual.
I'm slightly skeptical that testing will be more "eye candy" -- like security at airports -- until the numbers are a lot smaller and we have the means to contact trace.
However, it was interesting that almost every single CEO said it was so important to getting all range of consumers back out with more confidence that we can control this while re-opening.
The other thing they have to work out though is that not only are tests still very hard to get in most places but, and perhaps even worse, is the extremely high percentage of false negatives with the current tests.
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 3:10 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
I'm not entirely sure how that is anecdotal evidence that community spread had been going on for so long that we already have herd immunity. We have known for a while that most cases are asymptomatic. I think the measures most states have taken have succeeded in flattening the curve enough to prevent us from becoming another Italy. The bigger challenge we have ahead is what to do if this ends up being something you can't even develop an immunity to. There have been reports of people testing positive, then testing negative, and then later testing positive again, but from what I have seen those have all been so close together in time that it's impossible to rule out a false negative test.
My point wasn't about herd immunity. It was about the possibility that we may not have flattened the curve like we thought. It's not something we'll know until fast tests for both active virus and antibodies are available on a very widespread basis but I don't think it would be shocking to find out that a very large number of people already had it and went on with life. Stanford did an antibody test out in San Fran and the results led them to suggest that the actual number of cases was somewhere between 50 to 85 times higher than what was being reported. Not 50-85%, 50 to 85 TIMES. That homeless shelter's population is probably the textbook example of what would be considered a high risk population for complications yet all of them (40%) were asymptomatic.
If a huge segment of the population already caught it but outside of a few metro areas, none of the health care systems got overwhelmed, then yes we wrecked the economy for nothing.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 3:44 pm to wm72
quote:
Exactly. How can one admit to being incompetent more than to say "well we just trusted China"
Most of them are saying they trusted the WHO, which, as it turns out, is just a regurgitator of Chinese propaganda in this whole pandemic. Yet, you saw the outrage from media, politicians, and public figures when an attempt was made to distance ourselves financially from the Chinese puppet health organization.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 3:57 pm to wm72
quote:
the extremely high percentage of false negatives with the current tests.
Unless you get your tests from China (30%-70% inaccurate), I don't believe this is true.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:04 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
JustGetItRight
I agree with you about the percentage of positive tests being a drop in the bucket to actual infections/carriers.
When you consider that
1) people were begged NOT to come out to get tested
2) tons of tests of people who obviously had it came back negative
3) many w/o insurance to cover it or though there would be an out of pocket expense didn't get tested
4) tests were extremely hard to qualify for
I've been posting since the beginning that I thought there was a good chance that positive tests probably represented about 5% of actual people who had it.
That said, it is hard to look at hospital numbers and say that we did not flatten the curve since they show almost precise correlation to dates of distancing measures.
The difference in what you and I are saying seems whether it takes 25 cases to produce an ICU patient or 250 cases to produce one but not that the overall infections, whatever the actual number, would not have been exponentially higher without the drastic measures taken.
The problem is that we did the shutdowns so helter-skelter that we have no idea which aspects proved to be most effective and which ones had low returns.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:12 pm to wm72
quote:
I just don't like how all this news comes out like "we trusted China and look how they fooled us"
Anyone who ever trusted China the least little bit is a complete moron.
Since no US leader with half a brain would ever trust China, I am more interested in what America's responses have been knowing that their official word is always untrustworthy.
It's too easy to say "bad lying China" when everyone who breathes air know that is the case.
While I agree with pretty much every word of this, some things are worth mentioning. First is how ineffective our intel network is in China. During the last decade, either through good in country counter intel or more likely hacking and paid US traitors, China found and eliminated a great many of the people we had working for us over there. 2017 NY Times story about it.
It takes years to recover from something like that - particularly if you aren't sure how they did it.
Second, as someone else has said, our biggest mistake wasn't trusting China. It was trusting the WHO. Even if we don't expect them to actively call out China, I don't think anyone in the world expected that the WHO would intentionally be deceptive about a worldwide pandemic. Turns out if China tells them to, they absolutely will lie about a pandemic to protect China. Lesson learned. Thing to do now is shut it down and rebuild a replacement that isn't controlled in Beijing.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:16 pm to Evolved Simian
quote:
Most of them are saying they trusted the WHO, which, as it turns out, is just a regurgitator of Chinese propaganda
That's kind of the point!
"Oh my goodness, who could have ever guessed the Chinese government was downplaying their reports to WHO?????"
Anyone who is not a complete moron knew that WHO did not have 5,000 investigators in Wuhan personally testing each case. They obviously had a handful of representatives there on a short leash being told by Chinese government health organization officials what the numbers were.
I mean this is something even the brain trust that is the regular OT Lounge poster on this site was saying back in January!
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:22 pm to wm72
quote:
The difference in what you and I are saying seems whether it takes 25 cases to produce an ICU patient or 250 cases to produce one but not that the overall infections, whatever the actual number, would not have been exponentially higher without the drastic measures taken.
I think part of our different views likely come from the different levels of impact based on where we live. You're in NY. I completely agree that you guys have a very big problem, but here we don't. If you doubled our number of cases the health care system wouldn't be overwhelmed. We've shut down our (Alabama's) economy to the point it has HURT the heathcare system overall. Medical professionals here are losing their jobs here because the government won't let them work. It wouldn't help NY directly if half of the people in Alabama that have been laid off were still working, but it would danged sure help those people, the state, and the nation as a whole if they were.
quote:
The problem is that we did the shutdowns so helter-skelter that we have no idea which aspects proved to be most effective and which ones had low returns.
Completely agree.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:27 pm to Evolved Simian
quote:
Unless you get your tests from China (30%-70% inaccurate), I don't believe this is true.
Chinese tests are being used at many places in the US, including Denver and Los Angeles' public health departments.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 4:51 pm to JustGetItRight
Dr Birx just said we have 11.24 deaths per 100,000 people.
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