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Old School Prediction Model - Kentucky (6-3, 3-3) vs #8 Alabama (8-1, 6-0) (now with V2.0)
Posted on 11/8/23 at 9:51 am
Posted on 11/8/23 at 9:51 am
- Kentucky (6-3, 3-3) vs #8 Alabama (8-1, 6-0)
- 12:00 PM EST, ESPN
- Alabama by 10.5, O/U 48.5
- Vegas Score : Alabama 30-19
Note : Stats used below and in general are ONLY P5 vs P5 games.
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : ALABAMA 34 - KENTUCKY 24
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.33) is 137% of opponents averages allowed (7.52)
- Rushing YPA (3.79) is 101% of opponents averages allowed (3.76)
- Alabama averages 0.0793 pts per yard, 113% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0703)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.26) is 85% of opponents average (8.53)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.51) is 77% of opponents average (4.55)
- Alabama averages 0.0611 pts per yard allowed, 83% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0737).
Kentucky Offense
- Passing YPA (6.39) is 83% of opponents averages allowed (7.72)
- Rushing YPA (5.18) is 120% of opponents averages allowed (4.30)
- Kentucky averages 0.0831 pts per yard, 117% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0712)
Kentucky Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.33) is 97% of opponents average (7.57)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.86) is 93% of opponents average (4.17)
- Kentucky averages 0.0732 pts per yard allowed, 109% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0672)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 34
Kentucky - 24
Alabama
- 395 total yards on 64 plays (6.17 YPP)
- 251 pass yards on 25 throws (10.04 YPA)
- 144 rush yards on 39 rushes (3.70 YPA)
Kentucky
- 292 total yards on 60 plays (4.86 YPP)
- 160 pass yards on 28 throws (5.73 YPA)
- 132 rush yards on 32 rushes (4.11 YPA)
ONLY USING SEASON OPPONENTS WITHIN 20+/- FEI RANKING SPOTS OF OPPONENT
Kentucky is #36 on offense and #35 on defense. I only used comparatives from games with Alabama opponents ranked #10-50 from FEI to compare more specifically to team's more generally like Kentucky. Same on the flip side.
MODEL SCORE : ALABAMA 35 - KENTUCKY 15
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.72) is 142% of opponents averages allowed (7.54)
- Rushing YPA (3.34) is 91% of opponents averages allowed (3.68)
- Alabama averages 0.0809 pts per yard, 112% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0724)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.89) is 91% of opponents average (8.66)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (2.60) is 53% of opponents average (4.90)
- Alabama averages 0.0573 pts per yard allowed, 78% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0731).
Kentucky Offense
- Passing YPA (6.74) is 98% of opponents averages allowed (6.89)
- Rushing YPA (3.90) is 102% of opponents averages allowed (3.82)
- Kentucky averages 0.0657 pts per yard, 95% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0691)
Kentucky Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (8.56) is 112% of opponents average (7.57)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.87) is 99% of opponents average (3.91)
- Kentucky averages 0.0755 pts per yard allowed, 106% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0712)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 35
Kentucky - 15
Alabama
- 402 total yards on 62 plays (6.48 YPP)
- 266 pass yards on 22 throws (12.07 YPA)
- 136 rush yards on 40 rushes (3.41 YPA)
Kentucky
- 272 total yards on 57 plays (4.76 YPP)
- 208 pass yards on 30 throws (6.93 YPA)
- 64 rush yards on 27 rushes (2.36 YPA)
- 12:00 PM EST, ESPN
- Alabama by 10.5, O/U 48.5
- Vegas Score : Alabama 30-19
Note : Stats used below and in general are ONLY P5 vs P5 games.
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : ALABAMA 34 - KENTUCKY 24
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.33) is 137% of opponents averages allowed (7.52)
- Rushing YPA (3.79) is 101% of opponents averages allowed (3.76)
- Alabama averages 0.0793 pts per yard, 113% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0703)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.26) is 85% of opponents average (8.53)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.51) is 77% of opponents average (4.55)
- Alabama averages 0.0611 pts per yard allowed, 83% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0737).
Kentucky Offense
- Passing YPA (6.39) is 83% of opponents averages allowed (7.72)
- Rushing YPA (5.18) is 120% of opponents averages allowed (4.30)
- Kentucky averages 0.0831 pts per yard, 117% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0712)
Kentucky Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.33) is 97% of opponents average (7.57)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.86) is 93% of opponents average (4.17)
- Kentucky averages 0.0732 pts per yard allowed, 109% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0672)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 34
Kentucky - 24
Alabama
- 395 total yards on 64 plays (6.17 YPP)
- 251 pass yards on 25 throws (10.04 YPA)
- 144 rush yards on 39 rushes (3.70 YPA)
Kentucky
- 292 total yards on 60 plays (4.86 YPP)
- 160 pass yards on 28 throws (5.73 YPA)
- 132 rush yards on 32 rushes (4.11 YPA)
ONLY USING SEASON OPPONENTS WITHIN 20+/- FEI RANKING SPOTS OF OPPONENT
Kentucky is #36 on offense and #35 on defense. I only used comparatives from games with Alabama opponents ranked #10-50 from FEI to compare more specifically to team's more generally like Kentucky. Same on the flip side.
MODEL SCORE : ALABAMA 35 - KENTUCKY 15
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (10.72) is 142% of opponents averages allowed (7.54)
- Rushing YPA (3.34) is 91% of opponents averages allowed (3.68)
- Alabama averages 0.0809 pts per yard, 112% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0724)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (7.89) is 91% of opponents average (8.66)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (2.60) is 53% of opponents average (4.90)
- Alabama averages 0.0573 pts per yard allowed, 78% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0731).
Kentucky Offense
- Passing YPA (6.74) is 98% of opponents averages allowed (6.89)
- Rushing YPA (3.90) is 102% of opponents averages allowed (3.82)
- Kentucky averages 0.0657 pts per yard, 95% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0691)
Kentucky Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (8.56) is 112% of opponents average (7.57)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (3.87) is 99% of opponents average (3.91)
- Kentucky averages 0.0755 pts per yard allowed, 106% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0712)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 35
Kentucky - 15
Alabama
- 402 total yards on 62 plays (6.48 YPP)
- 266 pass yards on 22 throws (12.07 YPA)
- 136 rush yards on 40 rushes (3.41 YPA)
Kentucky
- 272 total yards on 57 plays (4.76 YPP)
- 208 pass yards on 30 throws (6.93 YPA)
- 64 rush yards on 27 rushes (2.36 YPA)
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 4:02 pm
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Posted on 11/8/23 at 10:07 am to SummerOfGeorge
SOGarin doesnt seem to like Kentucky’s defense as much as other metrics
SP+: (19th)
ESPN: (43rd)
FEI: (35th)
SP+: (19th)
ESPN: (43rd)
FEI: (35th)
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 10:11 am
Posted on 11/8/23 at 10:20 am to Glorious
I think it's a pretty average unit. They aren't bad like LSU or anything, but they've played some pretty awful offenses and been ok to good, and against the competent offenses they've played (Mizzou, Georgia, Tennessee) they've been pretty below average.
On the flip side, I think their pass offense has a higher ceiling than their stats show. Leary and their WRs were great against Tennessee, but that has not been the norm. If he plays normal, they are gonna struggle to move the ball. If he plays like the Tennessee game, they could make some plays. They have good WRs.
On the flip side, I think their pass offense has a higher ceiling than their stats show. Leary and their WRs were great against Tennessee, but that has not been the norm. If he plays normal, they are gonna struggle to move the ball. If he plays like the Tennessee game, they could make some plays. They have good WRs.
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 10:25 am
Posted on 11/8/23 at 10:21 am to SummerOfGeorge
I'll go Bama 38, Kentucky 17. Uncomfortable in the first half and then pull away after halftime.
Posted on 11/8/23 at 11:09 am to SummerOfGeorge
I have a really hard time seeing them score 24 on our defense.
Posted on 11/8/23 at 11:14 am to RollTide33
quote:
I have a really hard time seeing them score 24 on our defense.
Agreed. I'm sure their outlook on that side of the ball is being carried by what they did in September. They have been mediocre on offense for a while now.
Posted on 11/8/23 at 11:18 am to Robot Santa
If Leary throws it like Tennessee they could move it some. If not, I don't see how they get out of the teens. They won't run consistently or well.
Posted on 11/8/23 at 11:47 am to SummerOfGeorge
SOG, respect your model but ain’t no way in hell UK is scoring 24 points on us IMO.
I think this team is about to take off and start playing some joyless murderball. I expect a 34-10 or 38-10 type game
I think this team is about to take off and start playing some joyless murderball. I expect a 34-10 or 38-10 type game
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 11:49 am
Posted on 11/8/23 at 1:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Kentucky's defense is better than LSUs.
Right?
Right?
Posted on 11/8/23 at 1:53 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Kentucky's defense is better than LSUs.
Yes. Probably more like Arkansas.
Posted on 11/8/23 at 2:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
And we fizzled against Arkansas defense. I honestly feel this LSU win has us pumping too much sunshine on ourselves.
LsU's defense is not just bad, they're historically bad for them.
LsU's defense is not just bad, they're historically bad for them.
Posted on 11/8/23 at 2:40 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
And we fizzled against Arkansas defense
We played a bad half, for sure, where the LT couldn't block and Jalen was a tick off. We also played a very good half in which we moved the ball and scored at will.
quote:
I honestly feel this LSU win has us pumping too much sunshine on ourselves.
I personally think the offense has been pretty solid since the 2nd half against Ole Miss. There have been very specific things have been drive backbreakers - mainly penalties and sacks - that if removed would open up to a very efficient offense. We've done a much better job with those the last 2 weeks. If we continue to do a better job with it we'll be fine. If not, we'll scuffle.
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 11/8/23 at 3:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Just added a 2nd model. This one only compares the team's performance to opponents somewhat similar to the upcoming opponent.
So Kentucky's performance against the defenses of #15 Georgia, #21 Tennessee and #29 are used (Vanderbilt, Florida are thrown out as having no real value as those defenses are 75+ spots worse than Alabama, #6). And so on and so forth. Used to do this a lot once we got to the Championship Games and Playoffs. We're close enough now to have enough data to do it here, too.
So Kentucky's performance against the defenses of #15 Georgia, #21 Tennessee and #29 are used (Vanderbilt, Florida are thrown out as having no real value as those defenses are 75+ spots worse than Alabama, #6). And so on and so forth. Used to do this a lot once we got to the Championship Games and Playoffs. We're close enough now to have enough data to do it here, too.
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 11/8/23 at 5:14 pm to SummerOfGeorge
George my computer tower is still down but this week I’ve got numbers similar to yours. Since these technical issues started I’ve been going through one legal pad every five days. Hopefully I haven’t made any rounding mistakes but I can’t make promises. Anyway, I agree.
Posted on 11/8/23 at 6:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama Defense -
Passing YPA Allowed (7.89) is 91% of opponents average (8.66) -
Rushing YPA Allowed (2.60) is 53% of opponents average (4.90)
53% of opponents rush YPA is absolutely insane. Not sure how to even process that number.
I knew there had to be some outlier data skewing our game projections because the team is dramatically outperforming the predictive models right now.
EX: CFN model results
LSU: projected even, we won by 14
Vols: underdog, we won by 14.
Ole Miss: underdog, won by 14.
My guess is it’s USF and Arkansas blowing up our model along with the called back TDs and penalties we had early.
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 7:06 pm
Posted on 11/8/23 at 7:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
If Leary throws it like Tennessee they could move it some. If not, I don't see how they get out of the teens. They won't run consistently or well.
Leary has major problems heading his way because unlike Daniels, Milton and Jefferson he isn’t mobile.
I bet you see us unleash the edge rushers to a degree we haven’t seen almost all year.
Add in the ability to stop the run and their offense on paper is completely non-functional.
But games aren’t played on paper and this being played at 11am after the LSU win screams trap game.
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 7:02 pm
Posted on 11/8/23 at 7:02 pm to tide06
A lot of models that have USF in there are going to continue to undersell us because of what an insane underperformance that was by our offense vs a Bottom 10 defense in the FBS.
The only games we gave up > 3.0 YPA were games where the QB ran via scramble or designed non-RPO run + State.
USF : 3.85
State : 4.40
Tennessee: 3.50
LSU: 8.58
And we've shut down some really, really good run units.
Texas : 2.84
Ole Miss : 1.93
A&M : 1.91
Arky : 2.78
The only games we gave up > 3.0 YPA were games where the QB ran via scramble or designed non-RPO run + State.
USF : 3.85
State : 4.40
Tennessee: 3.50
LSU: 8.58
And we've shut down some really, really good run units.
Texas : 2.84
Ole Miss : 1.93
A&M : 1.91
Arky : 2.78
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 11/8/23 at 7:03 pm to tide06
quote:
Leary has major problems heading his way because unlike Daniels, Milton and Jefferson he isn’t mobile.
I bet you see us unleash the edge rushers to a degree we haven’t seen almost all year.
Add in the ability to stop the run and their offense on paper is completely non-functional.
100% agree
Posted on 11/8/23 at 7:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We held the running backs for LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas to 261 yards on 87 carries (3.00 YPA).
Those rush offenses national rank by YPA vs FBS
1. LSU (5.93)
7. Tennessee (5.64)
24. Texas (4.90)
39. Ole Miss (4.59)
Kentucky is #11 at 5.32, but they've run all over bad defenses that can't hold up in the trenches (Ball St 5.65, Akron 6.14, Vandy 5.16, Florida 9.14) and struggled vs good run Ds (UGA 2.29, Vols 3.00, State 3.79).
Those rush offenses national rank by YPA vs FBS
1. LSU (5.93)
7. Tennessee (5.64)
24. Texas (4.90)
39. Ole Miss (4.59)
Kentucky is #11 at 5.32, but they've run all over bad defenses that can't hold up in the trenches (Ball St 5.65, Akron 6.14, Vandy 5.16, Florida 9.14) and struggled vs good run Ds (UGA 2.29, Vols 3.00, State 3.79).
This post was edited on 11/8/23 at 7:14 pm
Posted on 11/8/23 at 7:14 pm to Summer of Jimbo
quote:
George my computer tower is still down but this week I’ve got numbers similar to yours. Since these technical issues started I’ve been going through one legal pad every five days. Hopefully I haven’t made any rounding mistakes but I can’t make promises. Anyway, I agree.
No excuses nerd like a champion.
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