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Definitely an offseasonish topic but... Moneyball effect and Indiana
Posted on 12/29/25 at 8:11 am
Posted on 12/29/25 at 8:11 am
I have zero doubts that Indiana is very good. Even if Bama beats them, Cig has accomplished something extraordinary. It really to me is quite similar to the Billy Beane, Oakland A's run where constructing a "less talented" roster in a certain way can have a "sum greater than the parts" effect.
Two questions to ponder:
1) Can teams like Alabama that have access to great talent incorporate some of these roster construction ideas in small doses, at least in certain positions to emphasize scheme and execution fit over pure athletic talent.
2) At what point does this advantage go away for Indiana? Once everyone figured out Sabermetrics utilized by Billy Beane, the advantage went away completely
Two questions to ponder:
1) Can teams like Alabama that have access to great talent incorporate some of these roster construction ideas in small doses, at least in certain positions to emphasize scheme and execution fit over pure athletic talent.
2) At what point does this advantage go away for Indiana? Once everyone figured out Sabermetrics utilized by Billy Beane, the advantage went away completely
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Posted on 12/29/25 at 8:50 am to scottydoesntknow
What you’re talking about is just good coaching. It wasn’t really a shift in the way the game is played like the A’s where the figured out OPS and defensive VORP was more valuable than BA.
They’re just a disciplined, veteran team. If anything, what he’s figured out is that it’s better to have a roster full of 23-24 year old 3 stars than 18 year old 5 stars, but teams have already figured that out. The ncaa nonsense has made this possible
They’re just a disciplined, veteran team. If anything, what he’s figured out is that it’s better to have a roster full of 23-24 year old 3 stars than 18 year old 5 stars, but teams have already figured that out. The ncaa nonsense has made this possible
This post was edited on 12/29/25 at 8:51 am
Posted on 12/29/25 at 8:56 am to Sandkhan
Hell, I think Michigan and Washington playing in a natty a few years back was the leading edge of "older teams" meta.
Posted on 12/29/25 at 9:25 am to Sandkhan
quote:
If anything, what he’s figured out is that it’s better to have a roster full of 23-24 year old 3 stars than 18 year old 5 stars,
Good point. It really was impossible to have these perpetual veteran teams before the transfer portal
Posted on 12/29/25 at 9:26 am to Diego Ricardo
For sure. IU and Vandy have just taken it to the next level of Juco players and super seniors.
It’s pretty much the old argument of “NFL practice squad vs top 10 college team”.
It’s pretty much the old argument of “NFL practice squad vs top 10 college team”.
Posted on 12/29/25 at 9:38 am to Sandkhan
Definitely requires competence and a bit of luck to operate in the portal so heavily. FSU has been doing this all decade and produced just two great seasons but several more absolute turds. Indiana is going to need internal development if Cignetti is going to sustain this for a half decade or more.
I still think what Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State are doing is the real sustainable path. Focus on high school recruiting with transfers used to fill gaps in the depth chart. I suspect that NIL is helping retain more players who'd be fringe underclassman draft declarations prior to pay for play.
Ultimately, Cignetti is a head coach who spent a lot of time in FBS as a recruiting coordinator. He's got a great eye for talent and he spent a lot of time in lower subdivisions and G6 learning how to be a great coach. I think his time on the recruiting evaluation side of the house is a real advantage for him as a HC in this era.
I still think what Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State are doing is the real sustainable path. Focus on high school recruiting with transfers used to fill gaps in the depth chart. I suspect that NIL is helping retain more players who'd be fringe underclassman draft declarations prior to pay for play.
Ultimately, Cignetti is a head coach who spent a lot of time in FBS as a recruiting coordinator. He's got a great eye for talent and he spent a lot of time in lower subdivisions and G6 learning how to be a great coach. I think his time on the recruiting evaluation side of the house is a real advantage for him as a HC in this era.
Posted on 12/29/25 at 12:59 pm to scottydoesntknow
Nothing against you but I hate how much Moneyball is thrown around in sports discussion now.
Indiana is winning because they hired a great coach and in back to back years landed a top QB through the portal. They were also backed up by Curt taking the top talent from his JMU team to plug the immediate holes where he could and when he started winning, those checks got bigger and bigger from Indiana boosters.
The book goes into more detail but the movie basically just ignores that the A’s won with the top talent they still had on their roster. Teams that spend money, are still going to generally win. A lot of the teams that try and play the way the A’s did ended up flopping and most small market teams have to heavily rely on scouting and development anyways.
In 2025 now everyone has access to the same stats and metrics, Indiana didn’t just find some magic loophole. What they’ve accomplished has been very impressive, it’s just an opportunity that arises in today’s football world for a program that makes the correct decisions.
Indiana is winning because they hired a great coach and in back to back years landed a top QB through the portal. They were also backed up by Curt taking the top talent from his JMU team to plug the immediate holes where he could and when he started winning, those checks got bigger and bigger from Indiana boosters.
The book goes into more detail but the movie basically just ignores that the A’s won with the top talent they still had on their roster. Teams that spend money, are still going to generally win. A lot of the teams that try and play the way the A’s did ended up flopping and most small market teams have to heavily rely on scouting and development anyways.
In 2025 now everyone has access to the same stats and metrics, Indiana didn’t just find some magic loophole. What they’ve accomplished has been very impressive, it’s just an opportunity that arises in today’s football world for a program that makes the correct decisions.
Posted on 12/29/25 at 1:35 pm to scottydoesntknow
Good question, Scotty. The A’s found undervalued players who just loved being in the game. They were willing to play their role in order to win.
Football coaches are always looking for good value in players. To me, good value is a guy with talent, drive and great character. Ty, Brailsford, Germie and Cuevas are a few examples. The problem is that good players are usually looking to increase their stock for the draft. They don’t necessarily want to just play a role. D Linemen are wanting to be on the field all three downs to raise draft stock. Not just be a two down or a third down specialist.
Vandy and Indiana are pretty well positioned for Billy Beane ball. A lot of their guys are classic over achievers. Their careers are going to be as CEOs. Not NFL.
I have often wondered what would happen if a coach took a bunch of mid to high 3 stars year after year and got them to stick around for 4 years. What would the talent and depth look like after 3 or 4 years.
Football coaches are always looking for good value in players. To me, good value is a guy with talent, drive and great character. Ty, Brailsford, Germie and Cuevas are a few examples. The problem is that good players are usually looking to increase their stock for the draft. They don’t necessarily want to just play a role. D Linemen are wanting to be on the field all three downs to raise draft stock. Not just be a two down or a third down specialist.
Vandy and Indiana are pretty well positioned for Billy Beane ball. A lot of their guys are classic over achievers. Their careers are going to be as CEOs. Not NFL.
I have often wondered what would happen if a coach took a bunch of mid to high 3 stars year after year and got them to stick around for 4 years. What would the talent and depth look like after 3 or 4 years.
Posted on 12/29/25 at 2:04 pm to LovetheLord
quote:
The A’s found undervalued players who just loved being in the game.
The A's won that season more due to having Hudson, Zito, and Mulder as the top 3 pitchers than any undervalued players Beane was able to acquire. Sure using stats to find some under utilized players and adjust their approach to focus on getting on base helped but the movie doesn't even mention they had arguably the best pitching staff in baseball.
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