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Registered on:10/17/2018
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quote:


doesn't she have to recuse herself in this case?


Yes, and it was the correct decision for her to recuse. She still sucks though

re: -0.3% 1st Quarter GDP

Posted by Ten Bears on 4/30/25 at 9:16 am
quote:

Nope. GDP dropped 2x expectations (.3 expected, -.3 actual) but PCE is holding at 0. Cutting a full point right now would drive inflation up, creating stagflation as job cuts increase. Inflation has to start moving downward by at least .3-.4 per month before JPow can drop rates without reigniting inflation.


There is a slew of really bad economic data out there that may force Powell’s hand sooner than he would like.

I think theGDP report and jobs report of only 62k jobs are telling because they really do not account for the majority of Trump’s tariffs. They are just the economy’s reaction to the uncertainty. Second quarter numbers should be really bad as well.
quote:

Please correct me if I'm misunderstanding. I don't want to misconstrue you or inadvertently strawman you. I'm genuinely trying to understand the handful of common arguments in support of the trade war and how it's possible to fit them together.


The problem is that they don’t “fit together” in any meaningful, logical way. In fact, all of the arguments that the pro-tariff people make contradict themselves. So far they have offered the following as legitimate reasons for tariffs:

1) Tariffs are temporary and a negotiating tool to eliminate tariffs on our exports.

2) bring manufacturing back

3) to eliminate the trade deficit

4) to raise more revenue to eliminate the income tax

5) and my personal favorite, crash the economy so that we can “refinance” our debt.

Short-term tariffs as a negotiating tool, will not accomplish 2,3, and 4. Items 2,3, and 4 won’t accomplish item 1.

Item 5 was a laughable rational made up by dumb asses who do not understand how our debt is financed, but they used it to make themselves sound smart and savvy, and you haven’t heard much about this since it was first floated.

So, offerring contradictory reasons for tariffs allows them to be “right” regardless of the outcome.

re: UPS to cut 20K jobs

Posted by Ten Bears on 4/29/25 at 7:57 am
I wonder if some on the other board applaud this as necessary.

re: Films vs Movies

Posted by Ten Bears on 4/28/25 at 11:26 am
quote:


I've noticed several posters on here correcting people about using the term film for a movie, and movie for a film. What's the actual difference? Or is it just a smug thing to say? I did a search on reddit and even the pretentious folks on there couldn't come to an agreement.


Actually, the terms are interchangeable yet diametrically opposed. Hope that helps
quote:

So, business as usual.


Might actually be an improvement
quote:

Have you not been paying attention to a thing called DOGE? Have you been hiding under a rock and wondering why all of the sudden the democrats hate Elon’s guts?


Wait till they pass this “big, beautiful bill.” I guarantee you there won’t be a single spending cut.
quote:

Is this an admission that the tariff plan isn’t working since the point of the tariffs was to get other countries to cut or eliminate the tariffs on our stuff and we cut or eliminate tariffs on their stuff.


Absolutely not. We will get other countries to zero tariffs, while OUR tariffs bring manufacturing home and generate sufficient revenue to eliminate income taxes.

BUT, that will ONLY happen after the market sufficiently crashes to allow us to “refinance” our debt at zero percent interest.

You’re just not smart enough to understand these things.
quote:

This is very embarrassing for a lot of posters on this board


Nah dude. Just you. You can’t even google economic concepts and sound semi-intelligent.
quote:

Thats not only caving. Thats chickenshit caving


Yeah, I mean, that is so much worse than assigning a name to the day you announce worldwide tariffs only to pause them for 90 days a few days later when the bond market puked on itself.

Some are so weirdly obsessed with who “bends the knee” that you fail see that we have, in fact, bent the knee on several occasions since Trump went tariff stupid. But it’s called “art of the deal”.

The reality is that NO ONE wins a trade war. There are only degrees of pain. So who gives a frock if Trump, Xi, or the leader of Sri Lanka bends the knee first. Just get it over with so we can all get back to a normal economy.
Goodness. When will we finally throw idiots like Sundance on the ash heap of idiots who pretend to be conservative?
quote:

With both countries now walking tariffs back, seems like things will settle for a bit


Currently the market is responding positively to reports that that we are negotiating deals and are relaxing some tariffs.

That’s great, until we start hearing reports like the Japanese trade team being baffled by what their US counterparts are asking. They keep moving the goal posts, and as a result, the Japanese team left after 2 days.

I’m not sure the remaining 80 or so other countries we are trying to Art of the Deal won’t react like the Japanese and just say efff it.

This administration seems to have an incompetence factor that is disturbing, and if we get to the 90-day point, and there are no substantial deals achieved, the market will start puking again.
quote:


I don’t disagree with you…it’s still just as wrong as invading Iraq, Afghanistan and other MIC serving moves we make.

Wrong is wrong.


Meh...I don't have a problem bombing a country that is a perpetual thorn in our side. Sometimes the USA has to flex.

And that is FAR FAR FAR cry from deploying troops and nation building like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan

re: Improving the Birth Rate

Posted by Ten Bears on 4/24/25 at 10:42 am
quote:

Nobody talks about it in the MSM but our young men’s testosterone levels have been plummeting.

Find ways to bring that back up and more sex happens.

Young men today are very reclusive and intimidated to approach women. Raise the test levels and that might happen.


Yes, but it's not just lower T rates that are causing this. By the time boys are 15-16 yo, they have been educated in this modern educational system that simply treats normal "boy behavior" as defective female behavior.

There are very few male role models in boys' lives in how to act and how to handle themselves. There are very few males in the educational system that will validate "normal boy behavior" as being 100% OK.

So, a lot of boys, even if they do not have "low T" simply live withdrawn lives to survive the bullshite that is thrown at them on a day-to-day basis.

That is something that might take generations to fix, if it gets fixed at all.

re: Trump tells Putin to ‘STOP!’

Posted by Ten Bears on 4/24/25 at 10:27 am
quote:


Is that like some victory for you?




Maybe Trump could put Zelensky on double secret probation
quote:

"Your walls and gates surround you, your possessions possess you.
Tell me how much do you need as you wallow in your greed."


So, if I wanna be "Amerca First/US Sovreigntism", do I have to subscribe to the quasi-marxist overtones suggested in your lyrics?

Or is it OK to worry about my own self- interests?

re: Trump tells Putin to ‘STOP!’

Posted by Ten Bears on 4/24/25 at 9:08 am
quote:

So, basically a kid told another kid to stop. lol


No, this time Trump means it.

This is almost as bad as Obama’s “red line”

re: Keelon Russell Will Be The Starter

Posted by Ten Bears on 4/24/25 at 8:29 am
quote:

Might have been my biggest gripe last year. Unreal.


Not disagreeing but what game would he have been pulled?

Vandy? Nope because it was right after Georgia

Tenn? Maybe, but the game was close

OK? Possibly, but the game itself was so bad putting Simpson in doesn’t make a ton of sense

Michigan? Ok, but then again, it was a meaningless bowl game a Milroes last game as a Bama player.

I just think, that CKD knew this was a transition year, and he was going to let Milroe be the face of success or failure.

If Simpson struggles, I think CKD will be more apt to make a change than last year.