re: Damn we need some help. CFP related...

quote:

---

You act like this is the same committee as every other year. THIS committee has Oregon ahead of us and we haven't budged from #8 no matter how good we've looked or how bad Texas has looked.

---

I don’t think the entire committee really believes Oregon is clearly better than Bama imo. Their hands are tied though. My guess is they see Oregon as more impressive than Texas, and we are stuck behind Texas as long as they only have one loss.

I think if we win out, we need just one of the following thing to happen

1) Texas loss
2) FSU loss
3) Washington loss
4) OSU/Michigan winner loss in Big 10 championship

quote:

---

Why would Bama not be in and Texas and will? Head to head? Then why doesn’t head to head apply to Bama and UGA in this scenario

---

I didn't say Tx was in. They are on the outside looking in. And I believe that Bama beats UGa then they jump TX but jumping tx doesn't he get Bama to 3 or 4 ..UGa is in as of this point as long as they don't screw around and lose to Tech. FSU has to lose for Bama to have a chance or Ore has to lose to Ore St then beat uW in the pac12. If both Ore and Wash win this wknd.... Then that winner is in. So that leaves several one loss teams vying for 1 spot...but if FSU wins out.. it's not inconceivable that Bama ends up the first team out. OSU vs Ga FSu Vs Wash/Ore It would laugh till Christmas if UGa were dropped to 5 after Bama winning the SEC but again I don't see any way that a #1 drops that far ( many of the same arguments that Bama has made over the years can also be made by UGa)

And after NMSU....a struggle against AU will hurt

Nope, if we win the SEC we are AUTO in, if we lose we will have 2 loses. Pretty simple stuff. Should have been in over TCU last year. Oregon has not played the schedule we have, should be above them now. Neither has Texas, they say they look at the whole season, so if that so, the tougher schedule with one loss should be ahead.

quote:

---

There's one thing the committee would love to do....keep the SEC from winning another Natty!
How does that happen?

1. Ohio state/Michigan winner is in
2. Oregon/Washington winner is in
3. FSU wins out they're in
4. Texas wins out they're in

---

I think we MIGHT jump texas in this scenario, but this is a lot more possible than a some seem to realize. We're not jumping an undefeated conference champion, and it would be very easy for them to justify texas getting in ahead of us.

quote:

---

and it would be very easy for them to justify texas getting in ahead of us.

---

And if we beat Georgia, they can also justify texas getting in over georgia, simply because texas beat us.

I know this has shite to do with this year/this committee but I thought I remember reading that the final 4 by the CFP committee has matched the simulated final 4 of the BCS every year. That surprised me a bit, and maybe that was wrong, but it WAS on the internet so....

Anyway, Bama is currently 6 in the simulated BCS (ahead of Oregon and Texas). That would only go higher with wins over Auburn and Georgia.

I've always said I preferred the BCS formula (tweak it from time to time if you must). It essentially aggregates the opinion of hundreds of diverse voters and multiple diverse computer rankings (using millions of data points). By definition this GREATLY reduces the impact of team/conference/other bias, particularly compared to a small group of a dozen partisan/affiliated committee members.

One partisan AP or coaches voter among hundreds of voters and multiple computer inputs can't sway much. It's a small fraction of one percent of the input/decision. One partisan committee member's vote is worth 1/12 of the decision (over 8%)!

I hate to sound like a broken record but we need 1 team to lose and that's IT. We do not want pure chaos to unfold because then UGA gets in as well(assuming we beat them).

I don't care how confident you are in your team against anyone in the country...you do not want to play an equally matched team again.

That means we'd have to beat them twice to be champions...Georgia would just have to beat us once. You don't want to be in that situation. It's BS tbh.

I predicted this would unfold again before the season looking at UGA's cake OOC schedule and our tough schedule. They'll cruise to 12-0 affording them a mulligan opportunity in ATL while we'd be 11-1 and have to win to get in.

Playing a tough OOC schedule is not worth it in CFB. Not at all. It's only about your record.

SEC/ACC rivalry week implications. Obviously Florida over FSU would be the big one for Bama.

But does UK over Louisville move the needle much for Bama. We played UK. FSU will play Louisville in the ACCCG.

SC over Clemson. We didn't play SC but Clemson is a "quality" win for FSU and would be good to make sure Clemson didn't sneak into the final CFP top 25.

UGA over GT obviously needs to happen.

Probably doesn't matter because undefeated FSU is likely going over 12-1 Alabama but on the slim chance the committee is wavering on a Travis-less FSU at all, might not hurt for the SEC to dominate the ACC this weekend.

For *this* weekend, we're rooting for...

Beat the barn senseless, but style doesn't matter too much
UGA beats GT
Mich/Ohio State whoever you hate least, don't matter
UK/UL doesn't matter, UL has a horrific loss on their record

Would be very nice if just one of the following happens...
Texas Tech beats Texas - 2 losses = done
Washington State beats Washington - Wash would have a bad loss and/or Oregon's win over them would be very diminished
Florida beats Florida State - FSU with a bad loss would kill them

We don't want pure chaos because UGA is right back in it in the event we knock them off in the SECCG.

quote:

---

That just sounds like hopes and dreams to me.

---

Same Herbstreit was vehemently against Alabama sneaking in unless OSU had two losses.

These guys push narratives and their is precedent for this to happen.. regardless of if people want it to occur or not