re: Bama Football Tidings

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Will Alabama win this season’s college football national championship?

In the last decade, “yes” has been better than a coin flip. Nick Saban’s program has responded well to postseason losses, and this is the penultimate season for the historic 2017 offensive signing class.

Yet this could be one of the most challenging years in the Tide’s quest for hardware.

Alabama’s futures odds vary by sportsbook. But the Tide are less than 3/1 to win the title, either as co-favorites with Clemson or as a close second.

Investments in Oklahoma (up to 15/1) and Utah (33/1) are more logical, considering the opportunity to hedge and lock in a profit if those teams make the playoff.

The best-case scenario if you’re betting on Alabama is a return of about 250 percent after a five-month wait. That’s great if it were guaranteed.

Alabama is good enough to win another national championship, but there are more obstacles than usual.

1. QB Tua Tagovailoa’s health
The most explosive starting quarterback in program history has suffered a series of bumps in Tuscaloosa.

Injuries to Tagovailoa’s hand, knee and ankle have limited him. He sat out the Manning Passing Academy this summer to protect a tight hamstring.

Alabama lists him at 6-foot-1 and 218 pounds. He talked this summer about improving his body and focusing more on his eating habits.

But Tagovailoa and his backup aren’t a champion weight lifters with injury-protecting tree trunks for legs.

There’s no more safety net in the form of Jalen Hurts.

Tagovailoa played in all 15 games last year, throwing or rushing on 412 offensive snaps. However, in some games, he wasn’t close to 100 percent effective.

You’ll never see No. 13 curl into the fetal position at the thought of a pile-driving SEC defensive lineman. But he’s been susceptible to injury. If he misses significant time, Alabama futures bettors will depend on Mac Jones or Taulia Tagovailoa to protect their investment.

2. The 2019 Clemson Tigers
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide never will be intimidated. Saban is 3-2 against the Clemson Tigers. But Alabama should respect the ACC’s top program as perhaps its only true peer.

On Jan. 7, Clemson earned the most resounding win by either team in the four College Football Playoff meetings.

Trevor Lawrence should be considered the best NFL quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012, and his cadre of NFL skill players at least matches what Alabama has to offer. And for those snickering at Alabama’s schedule, Clemson’s toughest ACC games are vs. Florida State, at Syracuse and … at N.C. State? Maybe?

5Dimes listed Clemson at -600 to make the College Football Playoff this season. If Alabama wants another national championship, it will have to take down a school that just beat it by 28.

3. Lack of depth
This seems like an odd concern to graft onto Alabama after four No. 1 recruiting classes in the last five years, according to the 247Sports Composite.

But the Crimson Tide lost 12 players to early NFL draft entry the last two years, a program record. Add in key injuries and transfers, and the team enters the season needing to avoid further attrition at quarterback, running back, tight end and inside linebacker.

Alabama lost Josh Jacobs (first-round NFL pick) and Damien Harris (third round) at running back, and then five-star freshman Trey Sanders suffered what’s expected to be a season-ending injury.

Alabama lost Irv Smith (second round) at tight end, and then Kendrick James entered the transfer portal.

Alabama lost Mack Wilson (fifth round) at inside linebacker, and then projected starter Joshua McMillion suffered what’s expected to be a season-ending injury.

Pass rusher Eyabi Anoma has left the program, and Hurts now is Oklahoma’s starting quarterback.

4. Improving SEC competition
Alabama has appeared in all five iterations of the College Football Playoff. It won a national championship two seasons ago despite failing to win the SEC West. Six of the last 10 national championship trophies reside in Tuscaloosa.

Get Alabama to December with a chance and the team usually capitalizes. But making it out of the SEC and into the four-team field will be harder this year than it has been since the end of the BCS era.

Ed Orgeron should field his best LSU team. This will be Kirby Smart’s most talented roster at Georgia. Auburn should be better and hosts the Iron Bowl. Texas A&M is good enough to scare top-10 teams on any given Saturday.

One has to wonder if Alabama will get into the College Football Playoff a sixth consecutive time if it fails to win the SEC Championship Game, which is a healthy possibility.

5. Staff turnover
I considered ranking the loss of defensive lineman Quinton Williams instead. He ruined plays for opposing offenses and disguised Alabama’s defensive weaknesses.

But Alabama has hired eight coordinators in five seasons. The majority of the assistant coaches have changed since January. That’s unprecedented staff turnover.

The institution of an early signing period, among other things, caused Alabama’s recruiting class to slip in 2018. Saban responded by hiring a younger, recruiting-friendly staff.

A narrative emerged that those coaches were not good enough at preparing for games. Saban, needing to replace almost his entire staff, swung to the other end of the spectrum with this year’s hires.

Steve Sarkisian (offensive coordinator) and Kyle Flood (offensive line) have head coaching experience, while Charles Kelly (associate defensive coordinator/safeties) and Sal Sunseri (outside linebackers) are grizzled veterans.

At any other school, this level of staff turnover could create culture issues. At minimum, it would lead to less than 100 percent fluidity and confidence on the field.

Saban is so good at running his program that it’s plausible Alabama can get through staff volatility unscathed. But it adds another layer of complexity to this season.

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Follow along for live updates:

— “The focus this week has been on improving," Saban said.

— The second scrimmage will be a little more game-like.

— No new injuries, Saban said. Reserve defensive lineman Stephon Wynn, who got hurt during the scrimmage on Saturday, has a high ankle sprain and will be out another week or so. Nose tackle DJ Dale (sprained knee) is expected to return to practice on a limited basis tomorrow.

— Saban has been complimentary of Florida State grad transfer offensive lineman Landon Dickerson, who has been getting reps at both center and guard.

— Walk-on tight end Giles Amos “has done a nice job.” He could have a role this year, according to Saban. “Giles has done a good job taking advantage of the opportunity he has,” Saban said.

— How the young guys develop along the defensive line is going to be important, Saban said.

— Saban was asked about the toughest quarterback he’s ever gone against. Mentioned Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence as someone who’s played as well as anyone against Alabama in recent years.

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— Saban said the focus this week is what kind of progress the players make from the first scrimmage to the last scrimmage.

— Saban said the focus this week has been pushing the team to make them "dangerous players"

— The second scrimmage will be more game-like than the first.

— Saban said Alabama doesn't have any new injuries. Stephon Wynn Jr. has a high-ankle sprain and will be out for a week.

— Saban said he likes the depth on his offensive line. He said he feels better about that position than he has in the past.

— Saban says Giles Amos has done a nice job at tight end and can "play a role" for Alabama this season.

— Saban on Brian Baker: I think he does a good job of managing his room. He has a good relationship with his players.

— Saban was asked about the best college quarterbacks he's ever seen. The first two names he mentioned are John Elway and Dan Marino. He also mentioned Tom Brady.

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Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper who specializes in college football and basketball. He’s the founder of Sports Locksmith.

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