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Alabama vs Auburn predictions?
Posted on 11/21/16 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 11/21/16 at 2:43 pm
It's Thanksgiving week so we need to shift the predictions up a few days.
Running the numbers (comparing game performance vs opponents yearly averages, comparing to this weeks opponents yearly average, etc) I came out with the following prediction.....(total rushes/passes are average for each team vs P5 opponents). Points feel a bit too high on both sides, but who knows. I'd probably go with 24-13 or so if I was just going off the top of my head.
Alabama : 31
Auburn : 19
Alabama
207 yards rushing (4.73 YPR) (44 rushes)
202 yards passing (7.44 YPA) (27 passes)
409 total yards
Auburn
127 yards rushing (2.64 YPR) (48 rushes)
138 yards passing (6.05 YPA) (23 passes)
265 total yards
Best case for Auburn (per the model)
Alabama 29-19
Alabama : 191 rushing, 192 passing, 382 total
Auburn : 136 rushing, 132 passing, 268 total
Best case for Alabama(per the model)
Alabama 33-19
Alabama : 224 rushing, 212 passing, 436 total
Auburn : 119 rushing, 143 passing, 262 total
Running the numbers (comparing game performance vs opponents yearly averages, comparing to this weeks opponents yearly average, etc) I came out with the following prediction.....(total rushes/passes are average for each team vs P5 opponents). Points feel a bit too high on both sides, but who knows. I'd probably go with 24-13 or so if I was just going off the top of my head.
Alabama : 31
Auburn : 19
Alabama
207 yards rushing (4.73 YPR) (44 rushes)
202 yards passing (7.44 YPA) (27 passes)
409 total yards
Auburn
127 yards rushing (2.64 YPR) (48 rushes)
138 yards passing (6.05 YPA) (23 passes)
265 total yards
Best case for Auburn (per the model)
Alabama 29-19
Alabama : 191 rushing, 192 passing, 382 total
Auburn : 136 rushing, 132 passing, 268 total
Best case for Alabama(per the model)
Alabama 33-19
Alabama : 224 rushing, 212 passing, 436 total
Auburn : 119 rushing, 143 passing, 262 total
This post was edited on 11/21/16 at 2:47 pm
30
Posted on 11/21/16 at 2:46 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Alabama vs Auburn predictions?
In all seriousness, I think Bama will win something like 27-10 or 31-13. D plays incredibly well and creates turnovers. O plays well, but their D-line is strong enough to prevent us from just having our way offensively.
Posted on 11/21/16 at 2:49 pm to bamasgot13
8-0 Bama
Posted on 11/21/16 at 2:57 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Points feel a bit too high on both sides, but who knows. I'd probably go with 24-13 or so if I was just going off the top of my head.
Agreed. Margin looks about right, but I don't see either team scoring that many points.
Posted on 11/21/16 at 2:58 pm to Triple Daves
I don't see them scoring a touchdown against our defense.
Alabama: 21
Auburn: 9
Alabama: 21
Auburn: 9
Posted on 11/21/16 at 3:25 pm to Triple Daves
10-17
Posted on 11/21/16 at 3:32 pm to Triple Daves
Defense travels and AU's got a very solid defense. Meanwhile, Hurts is averaging two TOs per game. I think AU uglies this game up for 3 quarters just like they did last year. They'll get a TD from good field position and a few FGs from their cyborg kicker.
Alabama 26
Auburn 16
Would love to see us come out and put up 2 TDs early to make them play from behind and get them out of their typical "upset" mode that usually drives them to play above their heads against us.
Alabama 26
Auburn 16
Would love to see us come out and put up 2 TDs early to make them play from behind and get them out of their typical "upset" mode that usually drives them to play above their heads against us.
This post was edited on 11/21/16 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 11/21/16 at 3:33 pm to Triple Daves
I honestly think we roll over them with ease.
1. They can't win the west with a win
2. They can't prevent bama from getting to ATL
3. They can't prevent Bama from making playoffs. At least with only with 1 loss.
I don't think they will play with as much passion..jimo
38-10 Alabama
1. They can't win the west with a win
2. They can't prevent bama from getting to ATL
3. They can't prevent Bama from making playoffs. At least with only with 1 loss.
I don't think they will play with as much passion..jimo
38-10 Alabama
This post was edited on 11/21/16 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 11/21/16 at 3:38 pm to Triple Daves
42-17
I expect to see a heavy dose of Harris/Jacobs/Bo and some play action pop passes. I think they score early due to miscommunication, but Pruitt and Saban gets the crew right.
I expect to see a heavy dose of Harris/Jacobs/Bo and some play action pop passes. I think they score early due to miscommunication, but Pruitt and Saban gets the crew right.
Posted on 11/21/16 at 3:42 pm to 251_Dreaux
31-3 Bama
I don't see Auburn moving the ball on Bama's D. I see 2 defensive TD in this game for the Tide.
I don't see Auburn moving the ball on Bama's D. I see 2 defensive TD in this game for the Tide.
This post was edited on 11/21/16 at 7:26 pm
Posted on 11/21/16 at 4:00 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
Defense travels and AU's got a very solid defense. Meanwhile, Hurts is averaging two TOs per game. I think AU uglies this game up for 3 quarters just like they did last year. They'll get a TD from good field position and a few FGs from their cyborg kicker. Alabama 26 Auburn 16 Would love to see us come out and put up 2 TDs early to make them play from behind and get them out of their typical "upset" mode that usually drives them to play above their heads against us.
I just don't see how they score. This version of their offense, with White gimpy or Jeremy Johnson, is basically the same offense they had last year. That team scored 6 non-God Thang points and had about 200 yards.
I think it will be a lot like last years game. We will grind on offense, shut them down on defense and extend the lead in the 2nd half.
10-3 at halftime, 20-6 end of 3rd, 23-9 final. Something like that.
I think the yardage totals above are pretty close to dead on what I expect.
This post was edited on 11/21/16 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 11/21/16 at 4:15 pm to Triple Daves
Auburn averages vs P5 Top 75 YPP Defenses (Clemson, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Vanderbilt)
- 175 rush yards, 44 rush attempts (3.96 YPC)
- 145 pass yards, 26 pass attempts (5.57 YPA)
- 320 total yards (4.56 YPP)
- 15.4 points per game
They racked up most of their big numbers against #88 Ole Miss, #101 Mississippi State and #125 Arkansas. In those games they averaged
- 359 rush yards, 55 rush attempts (6.53 YPC)
- 180 pass yards, 17 pass attempts (10.38 YPA)
- 539 total yards (7.46 YPP)
- 44.7 points per game
- 175 rush yards, 44 rush attempts (3.96 YPC)
- 145 pass yards, 26 pass attempts (5.57 YPA)
- 320 total yards (4.56 YPP)
- 15.4 points per game
They racked up most of their big numbers against #88 Ole Miss, #101 Mississippi State and #125 Arkansas. In those games they averaged
- 359 rush yards, 55 rush attempts (6.53 YPC)
- 180 pass yards, 17 pass attempts (10.38 YPA)
- 539 total yards (7.46 YPP)
- 44.7 points per game
Posted on 11/21/16 at 4:15 pm to Triple Daves
23-10 Bama
Posted on 11/21/16 at 4:21 pm to Triple Daves
Flip side, Alabama's offense performance using the same breakout
Alabama averages vs P5 Top 75 YPP Defenses (USC, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU)
- 289 rush yards, 50 rush attempts (5.74 YPC)
- 170 pass yards, 23 pass attempts (7.54 YPA)
- 458 total yards (6.30 YPP)
- 36.0 points per game
Alabama averages vs P5 +75 YPP Defenses (Ole Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi St)
- 247 rush yards, 50 rush attempts (4.95 YPC)
- 281 pass yards, 32 pass attempts (8.84 YPA)
- 528 total yards (6.46 YPP)
- 45.5 points per game
Alabama averages vs P5 Top 75 YPP Defenses (USC, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU)
- 289 rush yards, 50 rush attempts (5.74 YPC)
- 170 pass yards, 23 pass attempts (7.54 YPA)
- 458 total yards (6.30 YPP)
- 36.0 points per game
Alabama averages vs P5 +75 YPP Defenses (Ole Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi St)
- 247 rush yards, 50 rush attempts (4.95 YPC)
- 281 pass yards, 32 pass attempts (8.84 YPA)
- 528 total yards (6.46 YPP)
- 45.5 points per game
This post was edited on 11/21/16 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 11/21/16 at 4:35 pm to Triple Daves
42-10 Bama.
Posted on 11/21/16 at 4:39 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
I just don't see how they score.
Like I said, I could see them getting points off a turnover like Tennessee did and then maybe getting a 2 or 3 drives inside Carlson's range. Their defense is susceptible to the pass but I am not sold on Hurts being able to make them pay.
I don't think they'll win, but I think it'll be close for 3 quarters.
Posted on 11/21/16 at 4:41 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
I don't think they'll win, but I think it'll be close for 3 quarters.
I agree - their defense will give us fits. I think their defense matches up better with us than anyone in the league, including LSU. I think we'll struggle to break 24.
However, we're going to sumochop their offense.
Posted on 11/21/16 at 5:14 pm to Triple Daves
Their Def will play hard for at least the half. We may have some success with the run as I have seen a few teams get that going.
I would say it's 10-3 at half. If we can get their Def tired in the 3rd I am looking at a 27-10 game maybe 31-14. If hurts protects the ball and we run well. Could bust the flood gate.
I would say it's 10-3 at half. If we can get their Def tired in the 3rd I am looking at a 27-10 game maybe 31-14. If hurts protects the ball and we run well. Could bust the flood gate.
Posted on 11/21/16 at 5:15 pm to Triple Daves
Sure hope the offense isn't flat in this one. Run the damn ball pawl.
Posted on 11/21/16 at 5:19 pm to Gary Busey
TAMU seemed to find the code to running it well against them. I'd assume we are watching that and a few others.
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