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re: Alabama Basketball Megathread | 26-7 (16-2)

Posted on 1/17/21 at 12:38 pm to
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41026 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 12:38 pm to
SEC POY - John Petty
SEC DPOY - Herb Jones


I'm here for it.
Posted by CaptainMorgan
Member since Oct 2007
1524 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

Offensive Ratings
Jordan Bruner 127.3
John Petty - 120.4
Jaden Shackelford - 110.1
Keon Ellis - 108.4
Jahvon Quinerly - 106.2
Herb Jones - 105.4
Juwan Gary - 99.4
Josh Primo - 95.2
Alex Reese - 89.7
James Rojas - 79.8


How are these calculated? And what’s the scale, for reference? Or the data source? I’d be interested in seeing your predictive model for basketball. It seems like some minor tweaks could adjust yards per point to possessions or whatever the relevant statistic for basketball would be. I’m guessing the amount of data might be a little harder to cope with in basketball though.

Not trying to throw any more work your way I enjoy analytics as much as anyone though. I work in excel about half my time at the office, so I’ve tinkered with predictive analytics a little. It’s a lot harder to put together in a meaningful way than it would it would seem.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 12:54 pm to
They're from KenPom - 100 is "average" if I remember correctly.

quote:

Offensive rating (ORtg): A measure of personal offensive efficiency developed by Dean Oliver. The formula is very complicated, but accurate. For a detailed explanation, buy Basketball on Paper.


quote:

In Dean's words, "Individual offensive rating is the number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions. In other words, 'How many points is a player likely to generate when he tries?'"

The basic building blocks of the Offensive Rating calculation are Individual Total Possessions and Individual Points Produced. The formula for Total Possessions is broken down into four components: Scoring Possessions, Missed FG Possessions, Missed FT Possessions, and Turnovers.
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 12:56 pm
Posted by CaptainMorgan
Member since Oct 2007
1524 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:07 pm to
Gotcha. I guess you paid the yearly subscription for individual stats? I might give it a shot before the end of basketball season. I think part of my trouble previously was trying to properly weight individual’s ratings rather than looking at the teams #’s. It got a little muddy.

Thanks for the info!
Posted by saban n bear
Member since Aug 2013
2987 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:08 pm to
I can’t find the conversation anymore, but did someone say Nate Oats already has a likely commit from a former 5-star to transfer here next season?
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
30377 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:11 pm to
Is a KenPom subscription worth it? I’ve been considering it
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:11 pm to
I think it is - I love it.
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41026 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

I can’t find the conversation anymore, but did someone say Nate Oats already has a likely commit from a former 5-star to transfer here next season?


Phil was referencing Nimari Burnett based on a tweet he saw. Burnett is still in the portal and hasn't made a decision as to where he will go, but Oats has been in contact with him and is recruiting him.

We finished second for Burnett last cycle when he signed with Texas Tech.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:14 pm to
If we sign Bediako and Davison and bring in Burnett

Lawd. LAWD.
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41026 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

If we sign Bediako and Davison and bring in Burnett


Somebody will have to transfer out in that case.

Would prefer Rojas, but not sure Oats would do that.

Gary and Miles are really the only other options I think, but i'd definitely rather keep them over Rojas if it came down to it.
Posted by Robot Santa
Member since Oct 2009
46352 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

They're from KenPom - 100 is "average" if I remember correctly


Does it work like wRC+?
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41026 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Alabama scored a +45.6 game efficiency rating during yesterday's win over Arkansas. It was easily the Crimson Tide's best-rated effort of the year. Alabama climbed to #14 in our performance rankings, their highest position ever since Haslametrics.com was created in 2014.


Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:26 pm to
quote:

Does it work like wRC+?



If I remember the last deep dive I read it on it wRC+ was the baseball stat that seemed most comparative, yea
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41026 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

Selection Sunday is eight weeks from today.
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41026 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 2:20 pm to
Tennessee 16
Alabama 16

end 1Q
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
30377 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 2:23 pm to
Is it not on TV? I can’t find it
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41026 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 2:27 pm to
SECN+ on the ESPN app. Just login with your cable credentials.
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
41026 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 2:49 pm to
Tennessee 42
Alabama 23

half
Posted by saban n bear
Member since Aug 2013
2987 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

Somebody will have to transfer out in that case. Would prefer Rojas, but not sure Oats would do that. Gary and Miles are really the only other options I think, but i'd definitely rather keep them over Rojas if it came down to it.


Nate is stacking up good guards/wings. I’d like Rojas & Gary to be there in case we have any injuries to Bediako, Tchikou, or Ambrose-Hylton. Miles is the one you have to cut loose in this situation.

And for the life of me I can’t figure out why Gary doesn’t get more PT. I feel like if he’s a regular rotation player, he’s one of our top 5 players easily.
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 3:16 pm
Posted by mistaken4193
Member since Jan 2017
30377 posts
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

Miles is the one you have to cut loose in this situation.


Did you see Miles yesterday? No way in fricking hell do you cut him lose. That guy is an ELITE shooter
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 3:28 pm
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