Alabama Basketball : Where we are today and possible outcomes

Alright, so I figured I'd make this it's own thread. Here is where we are and then I'll list some "what if" scenarios to give an idea of where we'd be numbers wise if that were to occur.

Alabama Crimson Tide (14-7, 5-3)
RPI : #29
EloChess : #29
KenPom : #55
ESPN BPI : #52
Strength of Schedule : #10
Record vs RPI Groups : 3-2 vs #1, 5-4 vs #2, 4-1 vs #3, 2-0 vs #4
SEC Standings : T3 w/ Tennessee/Kentucky

Best Wins : #5 Auburn, #9 Rhode Island, #10 Oklahoma, #37 Texas A&M
Worst Losses : @ #123 Vanderbilt, #107 Minnesota, @ #84 Ole Miss, #71 UCF


Future Scenarios
#1 - Win out at home, lose out on road
Record : 19-12 (10-8)
RPI : #29
SOS : #3
Wins : Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas, Florida
Losses : @ MSU, @ Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas A&M

#2 - Win out at home, steal MSU on the road
Record : 20-11 (11-7)
RPI : #20
SOS : #3
Wins : Missouri, @ MSU, Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas, Florida
Losses : @ Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas A&M

#3 - Lose all tossups/underdog games
Record : 16-15 (7-11)
RPI : #60
SOS : #5
Wins : Missouri, LSU,
Losses : @ MSU, Tennessee, @ Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas A&M, Florida, Arkansas

#4 - Lose all but 1 tossups/underdog games
Record : 17-14 (8-10)
RPI : #51
SOS : #5
Wins : Missouri, LSU, Arkansas
Losses : @ MSU, Tennessee, @ Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas A&M, Florida

#5 - Beat Missouri/LSU and split Tennessee/Arkansas/Florida/@ MSU
Record : 19-12 (10-8)
RPI : #31
SOS : #3
Wins : Missouri, @ MSU, Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas
Losses : @ Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas A&M, Florida

#6 - Same as above but only beat Arkansas/@ MSU
Record : 18-13 (9-9)
RPI : #41
SOS : #3
Wins : Missouri, @ MSU, LSU, Arkansas
Losses : @ Florida, Tennessee, @ Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas A&M, Florida




So, basically, we are looking at finishing anywhere (probably) between 17-14 (8-10) and 20-11 (11-7), which would put us between #20 and #51 in the RPI as the range we can reasonably expect to finish.

Here are some interesting stats on at-large bids to the Tournament since they added the play-in games

Highest RPI Ranked Teams (Big Six Conferences) to miss the NCAA Tournament since the play-in game was added
2014 Missouri (#49)

Lowest RPI Ranked Teams (Big Six + MWC Conferences) to make the NCAA Tournament since the play-in game was added
2011 Clemson (#61)
2011 USC (#80)
2012 South Florida (#51)
2014 NC State (#54)
2015 Ole Miss (#57)
2016 Vanderbilt (#60)
2016 Michigan (#58)
2017 Providence (#55)
2017 Kansas State (#55)


Teams with a Top 50 RPI do not miss the NCAAT. Our worst case scenario (reasonably) has us right at that #50 line.

So...............bottom line, we're in pretty good shape.