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re: Alabama Basketball Megathread | 26-7 (16-2)
Posted on 3/6/21 at 8:59 am to Chadaristic
Posted on 3/6/21 at 8:59 am to Chadaristic
Analyzing SEC Tourney seeding possibilities with 1 game remaining
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Here is a breakdown of all the possibilities, complete with the odds of each happening using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index projections…
Alabama - 1 seed
1 seed: 100%
The Crimson Tide clinched their first regular-season SEC title since 2002 when they beat Mississippi State last Saturday.
Arkansas - 2 seed
2 seed: 100%
Riding a 10-game SEC winning streak, the Razorbacks have already clinched a second-place finish in the conference.
Auburn - n/a
Not eligible
Just before the start of the season, the Tigers self-imposed a postseason ban for 2020-21. That includes not being eligible to play in the SEC Tournament.
Florida - 3, 4, 5 or 6 seed
3 seed: 15.0%
4 seed: 16.3%
5 seed: 35.9%
6 seed: 32.8%
A win at Tennessee would guarantee Florida a double bye. The Gators could jump into the No. 3 spot with a win and an LSU loss, but would stay at No. 4 if the Tigers win at Missouri.
However, a loss at Tennessee would move the Volunteers above them in the standings and knock the Gators out of the double bye. They’d just fall to the 5 seed if Missouri also loses to LSU, but they could drop to the 6 seed if Missouri wins that game. In that scenario, Florida and Missouri would both be 9-7, with Missouri owning the tiebreaker thanks to a 72-70 win over Florida on Wednesday.
Georgia - 9 or 10 seed
9 seed: 4.7%
10 seed: 95.3%
If Georgia can pull off an upset at Alabama and South Carolina knocks off Kentucky, the Bulldogs would jump the Wildcats for the 9 seed. Otherwise, they would stay put as the 10 seed.
Kentucky - 8, 9 or 10 seed
8 seed: 37.6%
9 seed: 57.7%
10 seed: 4.7%
With a win at South Carolina and a Mississippi State loss at Auburn, Kentucky would move up into the No. 8 spot. If the Bulldogs win, the Wildcats would remain as the 9 seed even with a win over the Gamecocks.
Kentucky could also fall to the 10 seed if it loses and Georgia upsets Alabama. If the Bulldogs lose to the Crimson Tide, though, the Wildcats would remain as the 9 seed even if they lost to South Carolina.
LSU - 3 or 4 seed
3 seed: 85.0%
4 seed: 15.0%
The Tigers can wrap up the 3 seed with a win at Missouri or a Florida loss at Tennessee. However, if it loses to Missouri and the Gators beat Tennessee, LSU would slip to the 4 seed.
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Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:00 am to Chadaristic
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Mississippi State - 7, 8 or 9 seed
7 seed: 29.2%
8 seed: 33.2%
9 seed: 37.6%
Currently sitting in the No. 8 spot, Mississippi State has two paths to the 7 seed.
First, it would move up if it beats Auburn and Missouri loses to LSU, regardless of the Ole Miss-Vanderbilt result. In that scenario, there would be a tie at .500 between Mississippi State and Missouri and the Bulldogs own the tiebreaker via a 73-68 win over the Tigers on Jan. 5. That would hold true even if Ole Miss lost to create a three-way tie.
The other path is more complicated. If Missouri wins and Ole Miss loses, there would be a tie between the two Mississippi schools at No. 7. Because they split their regular-season matchups, the tiebreaker would come down to which school has the best win in the standings. They both lost to Alabama, Arkansas and LSU, so it would depend on the Florida-Tennessee result.
A Florida win over Tennessee would give Mississippi State the 7 seed because the Bulldogs beat the Gators 72-69 on Jan. 16, while the Rebels lost to them 72-63 on Jan. 12. A Tennessee win over Florida would drop Mississippi State to the 8 seed because the Bulldogs lost to the Volunteers 56-53 on Jan. 26, while the Rebels beat them 52-50 on Feb. 2.
If Mississippi State loses to Auburn, the best it can do is the 8 seed. That would also require Kentucky losing at South Carolina. If the Wildcats win, though, they would jump the Bulldogs and bump them down to the 9 seed.
Even though one game separates them in the standings, Mississippi State can’t be seeded behind Georgia even if they finish tied at 8-10 because the Bulldogs own the tiebreaker via an 83-73 win on Dec. 30.
Missouri - 5, 7 or 8 seed
5 seed: 47.8%
7 seed: 26.3%
8 seed: 25.9%
Although just one game separates it from the No. 4 spot in the standings, Missouri can’t get a double bye because the two teams above it in the standings play each other this weekend. That means Florida or Tennessee is guaranteed to finish higher and get the final double bye.
The best the Tigers can do is the 5 seed, which they’d clinch with a win over LSU. Even if Florida loses to Tennessee to create a tie at 9-7, Missouri owns the tiebreaker thanks to a 72-70 win over the Gators on Wednesday.
A loss would guarantee the Tigers can’t finish any better than the 7 seed, as Ole Miss would move ahead of them with a win over Vanderbilt or move into a tie with them at .500 with a loss to the Commodores and the Rebels own the tiebreaker thanks to a pair of wins over Missouri.
If Mississippi State wins at Auburn, the Bulldogs would also be .500 and own the tiebreaker thanks to a 78-63 win over Missouri on Jan. 5. That would bump the Tigers down to the No. 8 spot.
Ole Miss - 5, 6, 7 or 8 seed
5 seed: 12.8%
6 seed: 51.1%
7 seed: 34.5%
8 seed: 1.6%
With some help, Ole Miss can get as high as the 5 seed. That would require beating Vanderbilt, as well as Florida beating Tennessee and LSU beating Missouri.
If the Rebels win and either Tennessee or Missouri wins, the best they could do is the 6 seed. If both of those teams win, Ole Miss would remain at No. 7 even with a win over Vanderbilt.
If the Rebels lose to Vanderbilt, they could still move up to the No. 6 spot if Missouri loses because they’d be tied at .500 and Ole Miss owns the tiebreaker via two wins over the Tigers. Even if Mississippi State wins to create a three-way tie in this scenario, those two wins would give the Rebels the 6 seed. However, if Missouri wins and Mississippi State loses, Ole Miss would remain at No. 7.
If Ole Miss loses and Missouri and Mississippi State both win, there would be a tie between the two Mississippi schools at 9-9. Because they split their regular-season matchups, who gets the 7 seed comes down to which of them has the best win in the standings. Both teams lost to Alabama, Arkansas and LSU, so it’d come down to who finishes higher between Tennessee and Florida.
In that scenario, a Tennessee win over Florida would give Ole Miss the 7 seed because the Rebels beat the Volunteers 52-50 on Feb. 2, while the Bulldogs lost to them 56-53 on Jan. 26.
A Florida win over Tennessee, though, would cause the Rebels to fall into the No. 8 spot because they lost to the Gators 72-63 on Jan. 12, while the Bulldogs beat them 72-69 on Jan. 16.
South Carolina - 11 or 12 seed
11 seed: 83.9%
12 seed: 16.1%
The Gamecocks can clinch the 11 seed with a win over Kentucky or a Vanderbilt loss at Ole Miss. If they lose and the Commodores beat the Rebels, then they fall to the 12 seed.
Tennessee - 4, 5, 6 or 7 seed
4 seed: 68.7%
5 seed: 3.5%
6 seed: 16.0%
7 seed: 11.7%
With a win over Florida, Tennessee would clinch a double bye, but it can’t catch LSU for the 3 seed. Even if the Volunteers won and the Tigers lost to create a tie at 10-7, LSU owns the tiebreaker thanks to a 78-65 win over Tennessee on Feb. 13.
A loss in their finale could send the Volunteers down as far as the 7 seed. In the event of a loss, they would need Missouri to lose to LSU and Ole Miss to lose to Vanderbilt to maintain their current spot at No. 5. However, a win by either school would move Missouri and Ole Miss ahead of Tennessee in the standings. That means if one of those teams wins, the Volunteers would move to the 6 seed and if both of them win, they’d drop to the 7 seed.
Texas A&M - 13 seed
13 seed: 100%
Although the Aggies could technically finish with a better winning percentage than South Carolina and Vanderbilt, they will be stuck with the 13 seed because of seeding procedures put in place by the SEC for this season.
Teams that do not play at least two-thirds of the average number of conference games played by all conference teams will be seeded after those that do. Even if every game except Texas A&M’s game at Arkansas is canceled Saturday, the average number of SEC games played in the conference will be 15.7. Two-thirds of that is 10.5 games and the Aggies would be at 10 games. Therefore, they’ll be the No. 13 seed.
Vanderbilt - 11 or 12 seed
11 seed: 16.1%
12 seed: 83.9%
If Vanderbilt beats Ole Miss on the road and South Carolina loses at Kentucky, the Commodores and Gamecocks would be tied with a 4-12 record in SEC play. The tiebreaker for the 11 seed in that scenario would belong to Vanderbilt, which beat South Carolina 93-81 on Jan. 30.
However, if the Commodores lose or the Gamecocks win, then Vanderbilt would fall to the 12 seed.
Seed Breakdown
1 - Alabama (100%)
2 - Arkansas (100%)
3 - LSU (85.0%), Florida (15.0%)
4 - Tennessee (68.7%), Florida (16.3%), LSU (15.0%)
5 - Missouri (47.8%), Florida (35.9%), Ole Miss (12.8%), Tennessee (3.5%)
6 - Ole Miss (51.1%), Florida (32.8%), Tennessee (16.0%)
7 - Ole Miss (34.5%), Mississippi State (29.2%), Missouri (26.3%), Tennessee (11.7%)
8 - Kentucky (37.6%), Missouri (25.9%), Mississippi State (33.2%), Ole Miss (1.6%)
9 - Kentucky (57.7%), Mississippi State (37.6%), Georgia (4.7%)
10 - Georgia (95.3%), Kentucky (4.7%)
11 - South Carolina (83.9%), Vanderbilt (16.1%)
12 - Vanderbilt (83.9%), South Carolina (16.1%)
13 - Texas A&M (100%)
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:08 am to Chadaristic
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Notes and quotes
— Alabama head coach Nate Oats was one of 10 semifinalists named for this year’s Naismith Coach of the Year award on Friday. Last week, the second-year head coach helped the Tide lock up its first SEC regular-season title since 2002. He’s also led the Tide to 20 regular-season wins for the first time since the 2012-13 campaign. Alabama’s 15 conference wins are the Tide’s second-highest total in program history, trailing only the 1986-87 team which finished SEC play at 16-2.
During a Zoom call with reporters Friday, senior forward Herbert Jones and redshirt sophomore guard Jahvon Quinerly both sounded off on what makes Oats so special as a coach.
Jones: “I feel like he deserves everything that’s coming his way. He loves the game. He loves getting guys better, helping guys reach their dreams, and I feel like he does a great job of that. And I feel like he really knows how to expose your strengths on the court. I feel like that’s what makes him a great coach. He puts certain guys in great situations to do what they do best, and I feel like he’s one of the best to do it in the business.”
Quinerly: “He puts the work in, so he deserves everything that’s coming his way. He puts guys in the right positions. He’s just an overall great coach. The minute he walked in, he helped change the culture around here.”
— Jones joined his coach in receiving Naismith honors this week as he was named as one of 10 semifinalists for the organization’s player of the year award. Through 26 games, he is averaging 11.0 points while leading the team in rebounds (6.1 per game) asists (3.1 per game), 3-point shooting (45.5 percent) (steals 1.7 per game) and blocks (1.0 per game).
“It means a whole lot.” Jones said. “I couldn’t have done any of it without the team. They helped me improve my offensive game, my defensive skills. I mean, everything’s better when we win, so that’s just credit to my teammates. I’m not the only person out there scoring the points or getting stops. It’s a collective unit, and everybody contributes.
— Alabama’s 115-82 victory over Georgia marked its second-highest single-game points total in program history. Last season, Alabama recorded a 105-102 overtime victory at Georgia, giving it a combined 220 points in its last two games against the Bulldogs.
— While Alabama’s focus is on this season, Oats was asked Friday about five-star signee JD Davison, who played his final high school game Wednesday, scoring 45 points during a semifinal loss in the Alabama Class 2A state semifinals. Davison is the No. 3 point guard and No. 13 overall player in this year’s class, making him the Tide’s highest-ranked signee since Collin Sexton (No. 8 overall) in 2017.
Oats said he hopes Davison will be able to join the program at the end of May in order to take part in summer school and get a full summer of work in before his freshman season this year.
“He’s super talented,” Oats said. “With the way we play, as fast and open, he’s gonna fit perfectly. He’s hard to guard coming downhill with a full head of steam, he’s so athletic. He’s almost impossible to keep out of the paint when you give him enough space. So you put the shooting that we’ll have on the floor and the way we space the floor out, I think he’s gonna be a great addition.
“You add him into a mix with guys like Quinerly, you’ve got shooting. [Jaden Shackelford] can obviously drive the ball, too. Shack, [Josh] Primo, Keon Ellis, some other pieces we’re gonna add in. Jusaun Holt can really shoot it. Then you add some athletes. I think he fits what we need, what we want, how we wanna play.”
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Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:18 am to Chadaristic
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Here’s a snapshot of where all 14 SEC teams are at in the NET rankings and how they’ve performed in each quadrant entering Saturday’s games.
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:20 am to Chadaristic
This post was edited on 3/6/21 at 9:21 am
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:30 am to Chadaristic
How are they doing the SEC tournament with Auburn out and it’s an odd number of teams?
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:37 am to Syd
Well, I guess the new buyout isn't the only reason Oats going to Arizona isn't a concern. I'm not an NCAA probation expert, but it sounds like they're about to get bent over by Barry Wood. 5 Level 1 violations sounds like they're going to feel some pain.
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:47 am to Gpfather
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Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
I've been to fast food joints after the bars close. I could definitely imagine someone ranting that in a Wendy's.
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:47 am to Chadaristic
Surprisingly, us at 5th overall is fairly consensus amongst the bracketologies
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:49 am to Syd
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How are they doing the SEC tournament with Auburn out and it’s an odd number of teams?
Same way they did the women's tourney this year after Vandy quit. 12 & 13 seeds have a 'play in' game and then it proceeds like a regular 12 team tournament. Seeds 5-12 play a first round game with the winners advancing to face seeds 1-4.
2021 SEC Men's Bracket
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:49 am to Syd
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How are they doing the SEC tournament with Auburn out and it’s an odd number of teams?
Posted on 3/6/21 at 9:55 am to Chadaristic
I just realized that the reward for our #1 seed is the early game.
Frick.
Why can't they do like NASCAR and let the leader pick his lane on the restart?
Frick.
Why can't they do like NASCAR and let the leader pick his lane on the restart?
This post was edited on 3/6/21 at 9:56 am
Posted on 3/6/21 at 10:05 am to JustGetItRight
I hate it. Obviously, everyone is working on Friday. And Saturday at noon is a terrible tip off time. I'm getting ready to move into a new place, and I've got a lot of shite to do.
Posted on 3/6/21 at 10:07 am to Glorious
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Surprisingly, us at 5th overall is fairly consensus amongst the bracketologies
We won a pretty good P-6 conference, played no one in Q4, and outside of not having a big time OOC win we have a borderline 1 seed resumé. It's not all that surprising that we'd be the top 2 seed.
Posted on 3/6/21 at 10:37 am to Robot Santa
Posted on 3/6/21 at 10:39 am to Chadaristic
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If Kentucky beats South Carolina in today’s early SEC game, the Wildcats will be No. 8 or No. 9 in the SEC bracket. If you wonder why Alabama fans fret about that: Tide hasn’t beaten UK in the SEC Tournament since 1983 (0-11 since, including 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019)
Posted on 3/6/21 at 10:45 am to Chadaristic
Pretty crazy that the league has 0 Q4 losses as a whole.
There have definitely been years when the league would have 4-5 of those.
There have definitely been years when the league would have 4-5 of those.
Posted on 3/6/21 at 10:50 am to SummerOfGeorge
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The only combination that could drop UK to the No. 10 seed would be a Wildcat loss to SC and...an Alabama loss to Georgia.
I MEAN......
Posted on 3/6/21 at 10:53 am to Robot Santa
I think Kentucky has gotten worse I’m not worried about playing then
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