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2014 Alabama's Bad Statistics
Posted on 1/2/15 at 10:48 am
Posted on 1/2/15 at 10:48 am
I've read posts stating that this was Saban's worst team since 2007. While 2014 Alabama demonstrated greater resiliency and chemistry than some of his other Alabama teams, last night should have ended any doubts about 2014 Alabama being Saban's worst team since Alabama's resurgence in 2008. The issue is how Alabama will prevent next season's team from being similarly disappointing or worse.
Sources: Memory, ESPN Recap, CFB Stats
Bad Statistics
1. 2/13 on 3rd down conversions
2. 10/18 3rd down conversions by Ohio State
3. Most 3rd and long conversions allowed in the last 10 years.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8. Most completions of 20+ yards allowed in the last decade.
9. Most yards allowed in school history versus Auburn.
10. Most receiving yards allowed against an Auburn player in Iron Bowl history.
There's several more that I don't recall or know, but you get the picture.
Other things to note,
The offense had a mediocre performance in all 3 games. The defense played well enough in the second half of all 3 Sugar Bowl losses for Alabama to take the lead, but Alabama's offense failed.
From 2008 to the 2013 Iron Bowl, Alabama was undefeated when running for 140+ yards. Alabama exceeded that total versus 2013 Auburn, 2014 Ole Miss, and 2014 Ohio State and lost all 3. What does that tell us?
Alabama has been on a decline since 2011 defensively, which was to be expected, but not this badly. Alabama's offensive line has been on a decline since 2012. Offensive playcalling versus "big" opponents is arguably on a decline as well.
Alabama never replaced Upshaw, and it has showed. This team did not have the big name players that previous defenses had. Collins was good, but he's not in the same ballpark as previous Saban safeties. Ragland may have been a big name, but not on the same level as CJ, Dont'a, or Rolando. Cyrus Jones wasn't mentioned like Milliner or Kirkpatrick. The nose tackles weren't as memorable as Jesse Williams or Mt. Cody.
What will the staff do to fix the issues? I've lost some faith in Smart and Saban this season, and the Sugar Bowl loss added to that. The defense versus 2013 Texas A&M and 2014 Auburn was unacceptable, and what the heck happened to the stout Alabama front 7 versus 2013 Auburn and 2014 Ohio State?
Some of our players have been getting the Alabama bump in recruiting. If Alabama truly brings in the best classes each season, then some combination of the following is occurring
A. key players aren't panning out
B. the best players aren't on the field
C. there's an issue with player development
D. the wrong players are being recruited.
E. ???
Saban is supposed to be a defensive back guru, but the cornerback position has hurt Alabama the past few seasons. Alabama prides itself on rushing defense, but has struggled versus nontraditional rushing attacks. I have no expectations for next season and am grateful for what Saban has done.
Sources: Memory, ESPN Recap, CFB Stats
Bad Statistics
1. 2/13 on 3rd down conversions
2. 10/18 3rd down conversions by Ohio State
3. Most 3rd and long conversions allowed in the last 10 years.
4.
quote:
Ohio State rushed for 222 yards inside the tackles, 39 more rushing yards than Alabama had allowed TOTAL in a game this season.
5.
quote:
Ezekiel Elliott's 85-yard TD run is the longest rushing play Alabama has allowed under Nick Saban
6.
quote:
The Buckeyes had eight runs inside the tackles that gained 10 yards or more, one more than Alabama had allowed TOTAL in a game this season.
7.
quote:
Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a Sugar Bowl-record 230 yards. It was the most rushing yards against Alabama since 2000.
8. Most completions of 20+ yards allowed in the last decade.
9. Most yards allowed in school history versus Auburn.
10. Most receiving yards allowed against an Auburn player in Iron Bowl history.
There's several more that I don't recall or know, but you get the picture.
Other things to note,
quote:
Alabama: 31-3 vs non-SEC opponents since 2008 (all 3 losses came in Sugar Bowl)
The offense had a mediocre performance in all 3 games. The defense played well enough in the second half of all 3 Sugar Bowl losses for Alabama to take the lead, but Alabama's offense failed.
From 2008 to the 2013 Iron Bowl, Alabama was undefeated when running for 140+ yards. Alabama exceeded that total versus 2013 Auburn, 2014 Ole Miss, and 2014 Ohio State and lost all 3. What does that tell us?
Alabama has been on a decline since 2011 defensively, which was to be expected, but not this badly. Alabama's offensive line has been on a decline since 2012. Offensive playcalling versus "big" opponents is arguably on a decline as well.
Alabama never replaced Upshaw, and it has showed. This team did not have the big name players that previous defenses had. Collins was good, but he's not in the same ballpark as previous Saban safeties. Ragland may have been a big name, but not on the same level as CJ, Dont'a, or Rolando. Cyrus Jones wasn't mentioned like Milliner or Kirkpatrick. The nose tackles weren't as memorable as Jesse Williams or Mt. Cody.
What will the staff do to fix the issues? I've lost some faith in Smart and Saban this season, and the Sugar Bowl loss added to that. The defense versus 2013 Texas A&M and 2014 Auburn was unacceptable, and what the heck happened to the stout Alabama front 7 versus 2013 Auburn and 2014 Ohio State?
Some of our players have been getting the Alabama bump in recruiting. If Alabama truly brings in the best classes each season, then some combination of the following is occurring
A. key players aren't panning out
B. the best players aren't on the field
C. there's an issue with player development
D. the wrong players are being recruited.
E. ???
Saban is supposed to be a defensive back guru, but the cornerback position has hurt Alabama the past few seasons. Alabama prides itself on rushing defense, but has struggled versus nontraditional rushing attacks. I have no expectations for next season and am grateful for what Saban has done.
4
Posted on 1/2/15 at 10:54 am to Cumulonimbus
As far as their success in the run game goes, I think that was really more about the second level of our D than the DL.
Just get the best players on the field. Make the D easier to learn. Don't overthink things, just let the future NFL stars play ball.
Just get the best players on the field. Make the D easier to learn. Don't overthink things, just let the future NFL stars play ball.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 10:56 am to Cumulonimbus
quote:Same. I keep thinking "maybe we'll have a legit pass-rusher." and "maybe we can run the ball again." but I'll believe it when I see it. The last two years just seem so distant in terms of production from 2008 and 2009.
I have no expectations for next season
Posted on 1/2/15 at 11:01 am to UsingUpAllTheLetters
My expectations for next year are a ten win season and to be competitive in the games we lose. Anything else is just gravy. Same expectations as this year. That being said, I am still pissed that the last helping of gravy was moldy 
This post was edited on 1/2/15 at 11:02 am
Posted on 1/2/15 at 11:16 am to UsingUpAllTheLetters
quote:
Same. I keep thinking "maybe we'll have a legit pass-rusher."
Dickson had 9 sacks and 10 QB hurries
Jon Allen had 5 sacks and 7 QB hurries
Ryan Anderson only had 3 sacks, but 9 QB hurries
We did good rushing the passer this year. We'll get even better next year. Robinson/Reed need to work on that part of their game a little bit.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 11:37 am to chattabama
quote:
My expectations for next year are a ten win season and to be competitive in the games we lose. Anything else is just gravy.
Those are LSU/Georgia level expectations. The team can't expect to win the national championship every season, but there's still much room for improvement and Alabama could have done better the past few seasons with better playcalling and execution. I'm grateful for what Saban has brought Alabama fans since 2008, but I won't be completely content.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 11:44 am to Cumulonimbus
quote:
Those are LSU/Georgia level expectations. The team can't expect to win the national championship every season, but there's still much room for improvement and Alabama could have done better the past few seasons with better playcalling and execution. I'm grateful for what Saban has brought Alabama fans since 2008, but I won't be completely content.
Meh. There isn't really anything that we can control anyway. Why not adjust our expectations according to the team instead of putting up the championship or bust expectation to every team?
Sure, we could have made the title this year, but we just weren't as good as we thought we were. We got caught up in some of the dominating performances that we forgot what this team was really capable of. It happens.
Tell me if you thought after the WVU game that we would win tSECCG.
Did you think we would beat Auburn and LSU after losing in Oxford?
Was the team that escaped Arky by one point really going to hoist the trophy at the end of the year?
Was the team that gave up a billion yards to Auburn really going to stop Oregon?
Speaking of next year, how about the team that returns just two starters from offense? Does that sound like a national championship caliber team?
Posted on 1/2/15 at 11:55 am to Cumulonimbus
quote:
The offense had a mediocre performance in all 3 games.
Not so sure 'bout last year...didn't AJ throw for for close to 400 yards? We outgained OU also and had over 500 total yards. Henry had an awesome game on just a few touches to boot...
Posted on 1/2/15 at 12:12 pm to OldPete
quote:
Not so sure 'bout last year...didn't AJ throw for for close to 400 yards? We outgained OU also and had over 500 total yards. Henry had an awesome game on just a few touches to boot...
4 turnovers that turned into 28 Oklahoma points combined with bad offensive playcalling lost that game. The line struggled with an aggressive pass rush, so they should have ran it more. Henry should have received the ball more. Most glaringly, the defense held Oklahoma's offense to 7 in the second half, but the offense couldn't overcome a 2 touchdown deficit in that time.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 12:27 pm to chattabama
quote:
eh. There isn't really anything that we can control anyway.
Agreed.
quote:
Why not adjust our expectations according to the team instead of putting up the championship or bust expectation to every team?
Who's doing that? I don't have the championship or bust mentality and am just pointing out areas where Alabama has slipped. What's wrong with pointing out how Alabama could have been better than what they've done?
quote:I didn't think the team was that good; they caught breaks just like most champions to get to the big games.
Sure, we could have made the title this year, but we just weren't as good as we thought we were.
quote:Missouri isn't good offensively and Auburn isn't good defensively. Ohio State was the most complete team Alabama had played all season.
We got caught up in some of the dominating performances that we forgot what this team was really capable of. It happens.
quote:
Tell me if you thought after the WVU game that we would win tSECCG.
Did you think we would beat Auburn and LSU after losing in Oxford?
Was the team that escaped Arky by one point really going to hoist the trophy at the end of the year?
Was the team that gave up a billion yards to Auburn really going to stop Oregon?
I had little confidence in Alabama beating Oregon and even less after yesterday's Rose and Sugar Bowls.
In response to your other questions, did you predict the rest of the West to fall apart? Ole Miss and Mississippi State declined later in the season. Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M were all average. Arkansas was the only other SEC West team to have a truly good year.
quote:
Speaking of next year, how about the team that returns just two starters from offense? Does that sound like a national championship caliber team?
No, and I said I have no expectations. How about next year's schedule? I've stressed offline and online that this was the year for Alabama to get it done since their schedule is much tougher next season and the offense will be retooling itself.
Like I've said, I'm grateful yet not completely content if that's possible, lol. We don't have any control or influence over Alabama's future, but the biggest question remains.
Will Alabama sink to LSU or Georgia's level or will the program resurge under Saban?
I won't attempt to answer that question until after next season.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 12:40 pm to Cumulonimbus
quote:
Will Alabama sink to LSU or Georgia's level or will the program resurge under Saban?
I won't attempt to answer that question until after next season.
Can you define both of these terms? What does it mean to sink to LSU/UGA level? Music City/Belk bowl? I am 95% sure we won't be in Nashville next year.
What about "resurge"? Does that mean win the title? If so, isn't that the "title or bust" mentality that I mentioned earlier?
Posted on 1/2/15 at 12:40 pm to Cumulonimbus
Need to go back to pounding the ball and controlling the clock and that will help the defense.
Nothing wrong with playing like the 08 and 09 teams
Nothing wrong with playing like the 08 and 09 teams
Posted on 1/2/15 at 12:57 pm to chattabama
quote:
Can you define both of these terms? What does it mean to sink to LSU/UGA level?
Being content with double digit win seasons and not making the adjustments necessary to be a perennial contender late. Miles hasn't won a national championship in 7 years, and Richt hasn't won an SEC Championship in 9.
While Saban is around, I don't expect any long SEC Championship droughts, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the program stagnate.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 1:02 pm to Cumulonimbus
I think both LSU and UGA fans would have jizzed themselves over if they had the opportunity to play in the college football playoffs even if it meant a loss.
I don't expect that a team with two returning starters on offense will be in the playoffs next year. That would be unrealistic. I am just hoping that we finally see some improved play in the secondary. The days of Dee Milliner, and Swaggerpatrick seem distant.
If we can get a ten win season, and maybe eleven with a bowl, while also having an improved secondary I will be content. Perhaps that makes me a UGA/LSU fan. IDGAF. I'd rather enjoy each team for what they are and not allow my expectations to hinder the joy of watching them.
I don't expect that a team with two returning starters on offense will be in the playoffs next year. That would be unrealistic. I am just hoping that we finally see some improved play in the secondary. The days of Dee Milliner, and Swaggerpatrick seem distant.
If we can get a ten win season, and maybe eleven with a bowl, while also having an improved secondary I will be content. Perhaps that makes me a UGA/LSU fan. IDGAF. I'd rather enjoy each team for what they are and not allow my expectations to hinder the joy of watching them.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 1:12 pm to chattabama
quote:
I think both LSU and UGA fans would have jizzed themselves over if they had the opportunity to play in the college football playoffs even if it meant a loss.
I don't expect that a team with two returning starters on offense will be in the playoffs next year. That would be unrealistic. I am just hoping that we finally see some improved play in the secondary. The days of Dee Milliner, and Swaggerpatrick seem distant.
If we can get a ten win season, and maybe eleven with a bowl, while also having an improved secondary I will be content. Perhaps that makes me a UGA/LSU fan. IDGAF. I'd rather enjoy each team for what they are and not allow my expectations to hinder the joy of watching them.
For the most part, I agree. Upvoted.
Oregon and 2012-2013 Stanford performed exceptionally well versus modern and pro-style offenses. Nick Saban should take notes from Vanderbilt's David Shaw since he was Stanford's defensive coordinator during their back-to-back PAC12 titles.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 3:25 pm to OldPete
quote:
Not so sure 'bout last year...didn't AJ throw for for close to 400 yards? We outgained OU also and had over 500 total yards. Henry had an awesome game on just a few touches to boot...
There's offensive production, and there's offensive efficiency. The offense against OU last year did not produce when it needed to. Last night was nearly the same. Just hellbent on going away from what worked. While the defense played like garbage in both games, they did give our offense chances to get us back in.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 5:57 pm to Cumulonimbus
quote:
Saban is supposed to be a defensive back guru, but the cornerback position has hurt Alabama the past few seasons. Alabama prides itself on rushing defense, but has struggled versus nontraditional rushing attacks. I have no expectations for next season and am grateful for what Saban has done.
I'm also grateful. Saban is outstanding at coaching DBs, but as he has said, his prototypical corner is 6'1", and as good as Saban and Smart are, they can't coach 5'10 corners to be 6'1.
Some have criticized the coaching in the aftermath of last night, but while we had some very good players on this team, no amount of coaching will ever turn a Trey Depriest into a CJ Mosely. Nor will it turn a Denzell Devall into a Dont'a Hightower. Or an Eddie Jackson into a Dee Milliner. Or an Austin Shepherd into a DJ Fluker. And certainly not a Christion Jones into a Javier Arenas. Our QB was coached up in a huge way, and put in extraordinary hours in the off season on his own to make himself better, but getting that kind of a bump in so many positions that were lacking isn't ever likely. It is what it is. Yet while this team isn't as talented as some recent teams, it has been a helluva lot of fun to watch, and has certainly accomplished great things. Certainly a team to be proud of.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 6:01 pm to BamaGradinTn
quote:
I'm also grateful. Saban is outstanding at coaching DBs, but as he has said, his prototypical corner is 6'1", and as good as Saban and Smart are, they can't coach 5'10 corners to be 6'1.
The thing is, our 5'10 corner was by far our best CB this year, and our 6 foot corner was by far the worst.
I agree with the rest of your post though.
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