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re: OT: Corona Panic 2020
Posted on 4/13/20 at 7:18 pm to dawgfan24348
Posted on 4/13/20 at 7:18 pm to dawgfan24348
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I give credit when he deserves it, he downplayed the shite put of this until he had no other choice
I have not seen it, but I will take your word on this
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Trump took stronger action than any other world leader
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That is false
nope, not at all
he addressed it in the State of the Union & shut down travel from China, he was soundly criticized for that action
NO other world leaders (other than the Chinese) were taking ANY types of steps
Pelosi was encouraging people to party in Chinatown --- DeBlasio was promoting events and telling people not to avoid going out
now, to be fair, I don't fault them either as they were doing what they were supposed to be doing (promoting events in their local areas)
Trump stepped up and worked with anyone who was willing to take his hand. Cuomo & Newsome saw that reality and did 180 degrees on politics and have worked with the President
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We're trying to make sure the hospitals don't get overrun and since we're at the peak I would expect things to slowly open back up in May
God, I hope you are correct. Here in the Southeast, I believe you are
Kemp opened the beaches
DeSantis and Reeves of FL & MS are talking about schools opening back up
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the risk of seeing our hospitals overrun is no longer a concern
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It was a concern which is why we shut things down
I get it, and thank God what we saw in NYC did not happen across the whole country
anyway, outside of the politics, it sounds like you and I are not that far apart on how we see this thing moving forward
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Posted on 4/13/20 at 7:56 pm to dawgfan24348
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There are of course idiots on Reddit that want us shut down for the rest of the year which is asinine
Those people don't have a grip on reality.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:44 pm to dawgfan24348
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Late April or May 1st at the latest, we're at the peak right now so give it some time to go back down.
So possibly as early as next week?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:58 pm to deeprig9
Maybe like 2 weeks
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:58 pm to Crowknowsbest
They're the left wing version of PT
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:00 pm to dawgfan24348
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Maybe like 2 weeks
Do you think opening up in 1 week would be catastrophic, but opening in 2 weeks would be probably ok?
I'm not trying to "gotcha", I'm just trying to pin you down on a clear position.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:14 pm to deeprig9
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Do you think opening up in 1 week would be catastrophic
According to his folks, one week earlier/later will definitely progress to .0003 of .03 death rate which then in turn result in 100-200k deaths. We’re all on the edge of our seats.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:23 pm to Kneehigh
Here’s what I don’t get about shelter in place.
Say we wait 3 weeks and then all go back out. CV has infected a small # of the population (that we’re aware of) so why wouldn’t it then take off again and overwhelm the hospitals...which was the original concern. It’s not like we’re more immune because we’ve all been sitting at home. It would be different if large enough chunks of the population recovered so they weren’t vulnerable - but that’s not the case. The overwhelming majority of the population still hasn’t been exposed (again, that we know of).
The genie is out of the bottle...it isn’t just going away because we sit inside for a month and then go back to normal life. The reality is that until we have a vaccine we’re all going to have to be exposed to it. This shite scares me for my parents....but I don’t see any way around it because we can’t all just stay inside for a year until a vaccine is developed.
Say we wait 3 weeks and then all go back out. CV has infected a small # of the population (that we’re aware of) so why wouldn’t it then take off again and overwhelm the hospitals...which was the original concern. It’s not like we’re more immune because we’ve all been sitting at home. It would be different if large enough chunks of the population recovered so they weren’t vulnerable - but that’s not the case. The overwhelming majority of the population still hasn’t been exposed (again, that we know of).
The genie is out of the bottle...it isn’t just going away because we sit inside for a month and then go back to normal life. The reality is that until we have a vaccine we’re all going to have to be exposed to it. This shite scares me for my parents....but I don’t see any way around it because we can’t all just stay inside for a year until a vaccine is developed.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:50 pm to SquatchDawg
It's about not overrunning hospitals but also not trying to crash the economy.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:09 pm to dawgfan24348
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It's about not overrunning hospitals but also not trying to crash the economy.
What kind of 4D chess are you trying to pull here?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:28 pm to dawgfan24348
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It's about not overrunning hospitals but also not trying to crash the economy
Well that’s the problem isn’t it. Where was the concern for the economy when Governors were all trying to outdo each other to see who could enforce shelter at home the most?
About all we can do is try to have the infrastructure in place to handle the cases that arise when we get people back to work. 20M+ people not being able to pay their bills or buy food is a lot worse that 200,000 in the hospital.
In 2017 the flu killed 60,000 in the US of all ages ....we still have a way to go to hit that mark.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 12:52 am to SquatchDawg
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In 2017 the flu killed 60,000 in the US of all ages ....we still have a way to go to hit that mark
We would probably be there if we wouldn’t have started social distancing. This is 20,000 people in a month, because NYC was not as contained early in the infection process as other places. That number would have ballooned if we kept everything the same.
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 12:54 am
Posted on 4/14/20 at 6:54 am to Dawgsontop34
Social distancing only spreads deaths over time, it doesn't change the amount of deaths. We're going to end with the same number regardless, it's whether we hit that number in April or later with social distancing.
Social distancing also slows herd immunity and it has been argued that SD is actually more harmful.
Social distancing also slows herd immunity and it has been argued that SD is actually more harmful.
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 7:01 am
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:03 am to Barstools
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Social distancing only spreads deaths over time, it doesn't change the amount of deaths.
Well, the theory behind it, is that there would be more deaths because hospitals would be overwhelmed, thus not treating as many people that could have been saved...
However, one could argue that if they didnt make it out to be this global killer, and just treat it as a very bad flu season....less people would be going to the hospital because of it. But again, 600,000 people were hospitalized with the flu 2 years ago and we didn't have a panic.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:06 am to Dawgsontop34
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That number would have ballooned if we kept everything the same.
One would argue that it wouldnt have ballooned, but simply happened even quicker with the same amount of deaths.
Also, how many of those people in NYC would have died from something other than COVID19 in that same time period?
What if they had contracted the seasonal flu...what if they had their heart attack anyways...what if the cancer finished them off anyways...what if they stroked still...what if their lungs gave in still...
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:13 am to Barstools
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Social distancing only spreads deaths over time, it doesn't change the amount of deaths.
there is some truth to this, but it is not entirely accurate; everyone getting sick at once would have caused more death, as we did not have adequate resources ANYWHERE when this thing 1st hit
look at NYC; had their cases been spread out over 6 or 8 months, less would have died
for most of the country, I agree with your statement, but large population centers are an exception
so are rural areas that only have limited medical capacity and resources
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Social distancing also slows herd immunity
absolutely
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it has been argued that SD is actually more harmful.
truthfully, I can make an argument both ways
however, at this point it SHOULD be obvious to everyone that we have dramatically overreacted
implementing policies that are critical for NYC in Omaha, NE was never a good idea
we NEVER should have gone on full shutdown, not even in NYC or NOLA
separating those at highest risk and practicing good hygiene and common sense is/was all that is needed for 80 to 90% of the country
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 7:15 am
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:43 am to Dawgsontop34
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That number would have ballooned if we kept everything the same.
Yes, but we’re just kicking the can on the inevitable balloon.
ETA: also, the size of said balloon is very TBD, but unlikely anywhere close to initial projections.
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 7:45 am
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:47 am to dcbl
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implementing policies that are critical for NYC in Omaha, NE was never a good idea
This. NYC is fundamentally more vulnerable to something like this because it has far more density than any other place in America.
The governors of other areas basically tripped over themselves to appear strong on the virus to match NY and NJ, never mind that the people they governed were not vulnerable to the same degree of healthcare overload.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:52 am to dcbl
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look at NYC; had their cases been spread out over 6 or 8 months, less would have died
Bull shite! You're speculating. New York was never over capacity and many ventilators and beds went unused. Stop being dishonest.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:58 am to Barstools
The only thing really and truly overloaded right now if the unemployment administration.
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