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re: Fields will Redshirt (Official Prediction)
Posted on 4/27/18 at 10:37 am to djsdawg
Posted on 4/27/18 at 10:37 am to djsdawg
quote:
What do you mean by "comparable"? A rating of 160 is far better than a rating of 139. What made that difference?
The 1.7 ypa less and 1 less TD on 91 more pass attempts for Hurts.
Fromm had a good season throwing the ball around last year. His stats weren't gaudy by any measure (except maybe his completion percentage on longer throws) but he had a solid year as an SEC QB, and as a freshman. He's a pocket passer.
Hurts is not a pocket passer, so you'd expect his numbers to not be as good as a pocket passer, and overall they weren't. However, they were fairly close, which is my point. As a DT QB, his numbers were fairly close to Fromm's, a PP. On the other hand, Hurts blew away Fromm with rushing stats.
Here's a different site with stats for easier comparison as well as comparison between the other SEC QBs:
2016 SEC Passing Stats
2017 SEC Passing Stats
From those links, here's the comparison between Hurts and Fromm from their respective freshman seasons with the difference (green or red) being Hurts compared to Fromm (green means his stats was "better" than Fromm's):
I plugged the numbers in excel and tinkered with the stats to see what was really driving the difference in passer ratings. Turns out that Hurts rating is lower (by 21 points) because he threw the ball 91 more times than Fromm. Though their TDs and INTs are very close, Fromm got his with having almost 100 less attempts, which made all the difference. Giving Hurts the same number of completions and attempts as Fromm gave Hurts a 162.3 rating (2.3 better than Fromm). What does that tell us? Hurts threw the ball more than Fromm and his rating was hurt by not accomplishing more yards and TDs during that time. Hurts would have needed to get about 700 more yards and 6 more passing TDs to get the same rating as Fromm given how many attempts and completions he actually did have.
Does that mean Hurts was that much worse than Fromm? No. It means Fromm made more from his pass attempts, which I would expect from a pocket passer compared to a DT QB who isn't as "good" in the pocket.
Even comparing Hurts to the other QBs in the conference his freshman season, he wasn't bad. He was actually in the top 4 in most of the passing categories from the link I provided and middle of the pack in the rest.
quote:Dobbs was better than Hurts throwing the ball but Hurts had Dobbs beat on the ground. The award was given to Hurts because while their overall numbers were similar, Hurts helped to lead his team to a SEC Championship. Yes, he had help, but on top of that, Hurts was a freshman doing about the same overall as the senior Dobbs and accomplishing more from it.
Dobbs was clearly better than Hurts passing and running. The only reason Hurts won that award is because he played for Bama.
quote:Dobbs actually had a full yard per attempt on Hurts in 2016, in spite of the YAC you claim (I haven't pulled those numbers yet). Don't forget that TN had some pretty good receivers at the time and they played against a weaker East than Alabama played in the West.
In both instances, the hurts stats were inflated due to his superior supporting cast (tons of YAC) and the play call coddling by the coaches who knew his passing limitations.
This post was edited on 4/27/18 at 12:07 pm
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Posted on 4/27/18 at 12:40 pm to deeprig9
quote:
he will be redshirted
Don't think so
Posted on 4/29/18 at 3:21 am to FooManChoo
quote:
Though their TDs and INTs are very close, Fromm got his with having almost 100 less attempts, which made all the difference.
Yea, thats how it works. Yards per attempt and TD's per attempt are 2 of the main things that go into a passer rating. Both of those stats are big advantages for Fromm.
When extrapolating Fromm's total passing stats with 382 attempts, his numbers come out to 31.5 tds and 3438 yards. Thats not fairly close.
quote:
Hurts is not a pocket passer, so you'd expect his numbers to not be as good as a pocket passer, and overall they weren't.
Dual threats who are really good at throwing vs college defenses have really good passer ratings in college; for example, Cam Newton and Tim Tebow.
Posted on 4/29/18 at 3:49 am to FooManChoo
quote:
Dobbs was better than Hurts throwing the ball but Hurts had Dobbs beat on the ground. The award was given to Hurts because while their overall numbers were similar, Hurts helped to lead his team to a SEC Championship.
Dobbs had more yards per carry and a better rushing TD rate. Being a freshman or senior is irrelevant to the comparison. So should be total wins by a team.
quote:
Don't forget that TN had some pretty good receivers at the time and they played against a weaker East than Alabama played in the West.
Removing common opponents, total D rank within SEC of opponents:
Dobbs: 1,4,6,7,14
Hurts: 3,5,8,11,12,13
Looks like Dobbs faced a tougher group of defenses and he did not have the same caliber of WR to throw to.
Posted on 4/29/18 at 4:03 am to FooManChoo
quote:
Hurts knows how to do that, too, and has done it many, many times.
Thats an exaggeration. Not consistent at all.
quote:
I was using sarcasm to express the absurdity of the thought that Hurts is a bad QB, or at least not a good QB.
Its not really sarcasm when its the truth. Bama is so loaded with talent, they can easily overcome a weakness at passer vs most teams.
quote:
Tua got "real reps" in the 3rd and 4th quarters when Bama was beating the snot out of their opponents.
Most coaches would let their backup come in an hand the ball off in those situations....if they have full confidence in their starter. Saban changed from that conventional thought for what should be an obvious reason.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 11:55 am to djsdawg
quote:Yeah, but that just means Hurts didn't get as much production from the attempts he made and that could be for a number of reasons that don't show in the stats.
Yea, thats how it works. Yards per attempt and TD's per attempt are 2 of the main things that go into a passer rating. Both of those stats are big advantages for Fromm.
Could be his receivers weren't open downfield and he had to settle for shorter passes. Could be that his receivers dropped a lot of the deeper passes he threw. Could be that his OL didn't get him enough time to throw the ball downfield. Could be that Hurts relied too much on his legs and scrambled to extend plays which caused receivers to break off their routes and come back to the ball. Could be that the plan was a slow march down the field that didn't give Hurts the chance to throw it deeper more often. Or it could be that Hurts was just more comfortable with throwing the ball shorter distances which resulted in fewer yards and TDs (especially if he threw the ball less in the red zone).
Regardless of why, he completed a similar (slightly better) percentage of his passes as Fromm, which is pretty important for a QB. It means he was throwing the ball (typically) pretty accurately and in a catchable way.
quote:That's true, but I'm working off of the stats that are there, not the stats that could be there. It's also possible Fromm did so well because he didn't throw it as much last season. If he slung the ball more, it's possible he would have had more INTs or made some more bad decisions with the ball or just hit shorter routes more often to compensate for taking reps away from our RBs. He threw the ball a lot on 3rd down and got a lot of yards due to having to get first downs. That might change his stats drastically if we altered how many times we threw it vs. running it.
When extrapolating Fromm's total passing stats with 382 attempts, his numbers come out to 31.5 tds and 3438 yards. Thats not fairly close.
quote:Two Heisman winners for examples? Yes, "really good" ball throwers will typically have good passer ratings in college if they make the most of their throws by getting a lot of yards and TDs for their attempts.
Dual threats who are really good at throwing vs college defenses have really good passer ratings in college; for example, Cam Newton and Tim Tebow.
This post was edited on 4/30/18 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 4/30/18 at 12:04 pm to djsdawg
quote:OK. Hurts had him beat on total yards and total TDs.
Dobbs had more yards per carry and a better rushing TD rate.
quote:Seniority and experience is very relevant in this discussion. One QB was a freshman with no previous college-level experience and the other was a senior who played in many previous games over several years and had the benefit of college-level coaching, training, and film study for several years as well as more practices and scrimmages. If you think experience plays no role in the quality of a QB, I don't know what else to say.
Being a freshman or senior is irrelevant to the comparison.
quote:Agreed, however it wasn't the number of wins, but the quality of them. Helping your team win the SECCG is a big deal when voters are trying to determine the best players.
So should be total wins by a team.
quote:Are those the passing defenses? If so, that's fair.
Removing common opponents, total D rank within SEC of opponents:
Dobbs: 1,4,6,7,14
Hurts: 3,5,8,11,12,13
Looks like Dobbs faced a tougher group of defenses and he did not have the same caliber of WR to throw to.
This post was edited on 4/30/18 at 12:09 pm
Posted on 4/30/18 at 12:24 pm to djsdawg
quote:Are you saying that Hurts hasn't looked downfield and known where the first down marker is during his two years at Alabama, or that it's an exaggeration that he's done those things "many, many times"?
Thats an exaggeration. Not consistent at all.
quote:It was sarcasm because it wasn't the truth. Hurts is not an elite passer but he's good enough to be a SEC QB. He was one for two seasons. You make it sound like Alabama could have trotted out the punter at QB and done the same thing Hurts did
Its not really sarcasm when its the truth. Bama is so loaded with talent, they can easily overcome a weakness at passer vs most teams.
quote:Saban wanted to get his backups reps in garbage time so that they would have a semblance of experience if they were needed, and even then, Tua didn't have many meaningful snaps. I was annoyed that CKS didn't do more of the same thing with Eason in some of those games where we were up big. Getting backups experience is good.
Most coaches would let their backup come in an hand the ball off in those situations....if they have full confidence in their starter. Saban changed from that conventional thought for what should be an obvious reason.
I don't think what Saban did was an indictment on Hurts, though. Hurts was fairly consistent last season and his experience helped the offense towards victory after victory, even when he struggled, himself. The offense was potent enough with that smothering defense that Saban cared more about a QB who didn't turn the ball over much. Hurts had one INT last season.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 1:53 pm to FooManChoo
this Jalen Hurts argument has gone on so long, I forgot how it even started.
Jalen Hurts does not have the passing skill of Justin Fields - it's not close.
That is all.
Jalen Hurts does not have the passing skill of Justin Fields - it's not close.
That is all.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 4:11 pm to Long Dawg
quote:Doesn't matter if he does. My initial point was that our PP QB out-performed Bama's starting DT QB (who also won the SEC OPOTY award the year before) and nearly won a national championship. The claim was that we need a DT QB to go to the next level and I was explaining how that was a false statement.
this Jalen Hurts argument has gone on so long, I forgot how it even started.
Jalen Hurts does not have the passing skill of Justin Fields - it's not close.
That is all.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:30 pm to FooManChoo
quote:
Seniority and experience is very relevant in this discussion.
I am talking about in regards to SEC OPOTY. Dobbs had better overall numbers with a much crappier supporting cast and played against better overall defenses. Him not getting the award proves it can be a sham of an award.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:43 pm to FooManChoo
quote:
Are you saying
I am asaying that Hurts did what you talked about too often............
"Too many DT QBs take off when they should have looked downfield for an open receiver. Too many get jittery in the pocket because they know they can take off an elude a pass rush. Too many rely on themselves to get the first down or the score rather than trusting their offensive weapons. What is most important is having a QB who knows when to be patient, when to throw it, and when to take off and run. Magically giving a QB mobility won't fix anything if his head isn't right."
quote:
You make it sound like Alabama could have trotted out the punter at QB and done the same thing Hurts did
I think Bama would still do very well no matter their Qb. We know they went 12-0 with John Parker Wilson at QB, and he sucked. We know they won 59-0 vs Vandy, a playoff game by 17, won at LSU 10-0, and won the SECCG 54-16 with hurts passing pretty badly.
quote:
Saban wanted to get his backups reps in garbage time so that they would have a semblance of experience if they were needed,
Thats not what Saban normally does.
Posted on 4/30/18 at 8:59 pm to FooManChoo
quote:
Could be his receivers weren't open downfield and he had to settle for shorter passes. Could be that his receivers dropped a lot of the deeper passes he threw. Could be that his OL didn't get him enough time to throw the ball downfield. Could be that Hurts relied too much on his legs and scrambled to extend plays which caused receivers to break off their routes and come back to the ball. Could be that the plan was a slow march down the field that didn't give Hurts the chance to throw it deeper more often. Or it could be that Hurts was just more comfortable with throwing the ball shorter distances which resulted in fewer yards and TDs (especially if he threw the ball less in the red zone).
These hypotheticals can apply to every Qb. Chances are the Qb at BAMA isnt gonna have these issues moreso than others, so they dont explain the numbers. In 2016, he was in the bottom 25% percentile of deep passing.
quote:
he completed a similar (slightly better) percentage of his passes as Fromm, which is pretty important for a QB. It means he was throwing the ball (typically) pretty accurately and in a catchable way.
He had a super high % of pass attempts behind the LOS, which skews the comp%.
quote:
That's true, but I'm working off of the stats that are there, not the stats that could be there.
Well, lets flip it with Hurts only getting 291 pass attempts. The numbers go to 17.5 tds and 2119 yards. Again, not fairly close.
Posted on 5/1/18 at 10:08 am to djsdawg
quote:Hurts was voted on by the SEC coaches. Unless you're claiming that they were all paid off somehow, I don't see how you can say it can be a sham of an award.
I am talking about in regards to SEC OPOTY. Dobbs had better overall numbers with a much crappier supporting cast and played against better overall defenses. Him not getting the award proves it can be a sham of an award.
Regardless, I went back through the stats to see (again) why Hurts may have been selected over Dobbs. The stats I looked at before were total season stats. The award was given out before the SECCG, so Dobbs had one more game to play and Hurts three more games.
Here's an updated look at the two prior to the SECCG, when the award was given:
According to these stats, Hurts and Dobbs were both very similar as passers with Dobbs beating him by a few TDs (Hurts beat him on having fewer INTs) and 200 yards but Hurts had a higher completion percentage and was better than Dobbs with his legs. That coupled with the fact that a freshman led his team to a 12-0 record and an SEC championship game berth gave Hurts the edge.
But even if you still don't think Hurts should have received the award over Dobbs, you have to admit that they had very similar stats, which speaks to my initial point about Hurts: as a freshman he was on the same level (stats-wise) with one of the better QBs in the conference who was also a senior.
Posted on 5/1/18 at 10:09 am to FooManChoo
I hate this thread
Posted on 5/1/18 at 10:20 am to djsdawg
quote:In that case I don't disagree. That's very common for QBs, especially underclassmen.
I am asaying that Hurts did what you talked about too often............
My point wasn't that Hurts never did that, but that any QB can do that and most actually do some if not all of those things at some point in their careers. Again, my point was that being a DT QB doesn't magically make a QB better. They have to learn how to quarterback just like a PP does. The fact that Hurts as SEC OPOTY does that too just proves my point that having all the skills and talent in the world is nothing if a QB also doesn't have it together in their head. That's why I'm not going to hail Fields as the next UGA messiah until he proves himself on the field in the SEC.
quote:Of course Bama's offense is potent and benefited greatly from having a suffocating defense, but they still needed a decent "game manager" to make it happen. They've had a history of those types of QBs, as you point out with Wilson. Hurts was actually different for Bama because he was a DT QB, which is something they haven't really utilized much under Saban. He was able to use his legs to help out the team when his arm wasn't getting the job done.
I think Bama would still do very well no matter their Qb. We know they went 12-0 with John Parker Wilson at QB, and he sucked. We know they won 59-0 vs Vandy, a playoff game by 17, won at LSU 10-0, and won the SECCG 54-16 with hurts passing pretty badly.
Hurts' worst games his freshman year were not much worse than Fromm's, and he only had one game (Vandy) that was worse than Fromm's worst game this past season. Again, Fromm is a pure PP and Hurts isn't.
quote:Well I guess it's a good thing those reps were pretty much all in garbage time, then
Thats not what Saban normally does.
But seriously, Hurts was the starter all season and gave no reason for Saban to start Tua. Tua was a desperation move that happened to pay off.
Posted on 5/1/18 at 10:21 am to AUGDawg
quote:Me too, but I'm stubborn and want to make some people pay for not understanding my original point.
I hate this thread
ETA: and by "pay" I mean have to read through my wall of text.
This post was edited on 5/1/18 at 10:36 am
Posted on 5/1/18 at 10:35 am to djsdawg
quote:Yes, those hypotheticals can apply to every QB. That's why I was listing them. I didn't watch every single snap of every single Alabama game so I don't know what the explanation really is. It doesn't really matter, though. He wasn't great (stats-wise) at the deep ball and that hurt his overall rating. He doesn't have to be great at the deep ball to be a good or even decent QB in the SEC. A lot of PP QBs are not great at the deep ball. It takes a lot of skill and great timing to be accurate with those.
These hypotheticals can apply to every Qb. Chances are the Qb at BAMA isnt gonna have these issues moreso than others, so they dont explain the numbers. In 2016, he was in the bottom 25% percentile of deep passing.
quote:Could be, but he was accurate with those. I've seen a lot of inaccurate passes behind the LOS from our QBs over the years.
He had a super high % of pass attempts behind the LOS, which skews the comp%.
quote:You'd have to lop off 4 games from Hurts to get those numbers, but that's OK for the sake of argument. Yes, his numbers drop and aren't as close at that point, but his rushing stats are still similar to what they were before dropping those games. He had 11 rushing TDs and 800+ yards rushing by that point in the season. That's the difference between the two: though his passing stats were still similar overall with Fromm's, Hurts had that extra element in running the ball greatly in his favor.
Well, lets flip it with Hurts only getting 291 pass attempts. The numbers go to 17.5 tds and 2119 yards. Again, not fairly close.
In case you forgot, my point in even discussing this was to show that overall, Hurts had similar (though not the same: Fromm was better overall) passing numbers to our freshman PP QB but had that extra boost from running the ball. Last season Hurts only threw one INT. That's very hard to do for any QB with the number of times he threw the ball.
I'm not trying to prove Hurts is the greatest QB ever to play the game. I'm trying to show you and others that we don't "need" a DT QB to win a championship. Even your arguments about Hurts being mediocre prove that point. If Bama can get to the NCG two years in a row with a QB like Hurts, that only proves we can do it with someone like Fromm. There's more to winning NC's than having a QB who can run with the ball.
Posted on 6/14/18 at 2:53 pm to Barstools
Who is taking mop up snaps?
3 cupcake games, so Fields is only going to take snaps in one more game?
I bet he plays every game
3 cupcake games, so Fields is only going to take snaps in one more game?
I bet he plays every game
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