re: 2018 UGA Recruiting Thread (commits, offers, visits, etc.) - Back to that #1 class

Let me preface this by saying I'm personally far less concerned with who has the #1 class and more concerned with where our total score and average score are relative to 300 and 92 respectively. I feel like those are the benchmarks that really indicate a truly elite signing class. High 290s and a high average recruit ranking (which is going to almost be a given in the modern era capping at 25 vs say our 13 class with 31 signees) tend to be much more indicative of the talent being brought in. The only caveat there is relative to other SEC programs does matter to some degree... but at those numbers the odds of being drastically behind more than one other program (Alabama in most years) in conference in any year would be difficult.

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Take a good long hard look at Ohio State's class. They are WAAAAY ahead of us with the same number of recruits.

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Looking at the total without accounting for anticipated losses is dangerous. I also thought tOSU had a pretty insurmountable lead for a while, but rerankings haven't been terribly great for them thus far which has lessened the gap a bit, and if they were to lose Cox and Jones as is being speculated, they lose right at 20 points from their total score between them alone. This is definitely within striking distance...

Here was a super generous prediction on their final class from earlier this year:
LINK
Seems to think they'll cap out at 23 this year...

Can't find a similar breakdown for Texas, so not sure what their max size is going to be. They are going head to head with tOSU for a bunch of their remaining recruits and some of their commits though.. assuming those two programs split them, going to be tough for either to gain a meaningful advantage (not to mention aTm and TCU recruiting instate). Additionally, if you look at who they have remaining on the board, it's primarily low-mid 4* and below with a few exceptions. They've already hit on a ton of their big targets. It's a great class, but they may have hit most of their homeruns already.

Compare that to a potential finish for UGA including these names (not to mention others who still want to come) - percentage likelihood just a spitball guess of my own... by no means gospel:
Jamaree Salyer - 95%
Cade Mays - 50%
Brenton Cox - IF he flips - probably 50%
Luke Ford - 90%
Alontae Taylor - 65%
Christian Barmore - ??? really not enough info. Had heard we were a favorite, but limited info on this one

Some other names that could replace misses and/or attrition from current commits:
Trey Hill
Channing Tindall
Otis Reese (hearing grades/qualification may be a problem now?)
Divaad Wilson
Ja'Marr Chase
etc...

If you run that on the class calculator, that yields about a 305ish class and I haven't done the math, but it should take us towards surpassing the 92 avg threshold (at 91 right now and all but Barmore are above that number by a significant margin) - and that's if you include the rating of Camarda, since P/K ratings are inconsistent with everyone else.

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Well, you said people were only optimistic because of the playoff high. I was just pointing out people have been high on this draft class for a couple months.

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I said iw as afraid that is why people were being so optimistic. Yes, I know we are have been high on this class, and a #4 is still a crazy good class. I don't recall anybody predicting a #2 finish, though. Every once in a while people would throw out a #1 prediction, but nobody should expect that....yet.... some do.

I agree with most of your speculations. A couple I have reservations about. I would put:
Cox-40% IF he flips
And Trey Hill, imo, will be going to Auburn. 75% on that one.

Liek is aid, I hope you are all correct, and I am wrong. We will have a better idea in about 3 weeks, then know for certain in a couple of months.

Replacing coaches after they get promoted is one area that we have yet to see Kirby perform in. Based on his initial hires, I feel pretty confident, especially when you consider that it should be much easier for him to draw top guys now that he and the program are a bit more of a proven commodity.

Losing coaches is the curse of successful teams. Saban did a better job than anyone in America in replacing guys for years, which went a long way towards their sustained success. Many contend that their failure to reload with quality recruiters after their last exodus is what is hindering their current class.

Will be very interesting to watch who we do lose and how quickly we replace them with quality guys.

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if you disagree with anybody, you become an enemy.

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Not true, we argue all the time around here and most dont have 'enemies' lol.

With that said, there are a few on this thread with extremely accurate and inside info. We go by how they are feeling, and they are feeling good. So, really, you should too, because you are going off gut feelings and not actual info.

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So, really, you should too,

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So thinking we finish closer to #4 than to #2 is not feeling good about the class?

Look at this conversation. I have said several times that I hope I am wrong an you guys are right, yet some will continue to stay after me unless I say...."You are right! We WILL have the #2 class!"

I'll stick with my prediction of a #4 class, and we MIGHT have an outside shot at #3. If you all want to insist on #2, that's ok. I'll be thrilled if y'all are right and be more than happy to say i was wrong and you all were right.

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AmericusDawg

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Just speculation but given how close I know Aaron Brule and Jamarr Chase are here in New Orleans and how much more certain Brule has been lately, I would not be surprised to see us close Chase between Dec 20 and signing day.

I think chase is ours if we push. Have felt that way since he committed to UF. I think given our other targets at WR and given his recent knee injury that he likely isn't a take at this point

Anybody know how Wyatt's been doing at his JUCO?