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re: Absolutely unacceptable
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:04 am to finestfirst79
Posted on 11/8/16 at 10:04 am to finestfirst79
quote:
They're currently #5 with way, way too many Texas recruits.
and their fanbase wants into the SEC. This can never be allowed to happen. ever.
1
Posted on 11/8/16 at 11:45 am to Masterag
quote:
and their fanbase wants into the SEC. This can never be allowed to happen. ever.
We won't be the ones to decide that, as the SEC has made it clear in the past they would take OU by themselves even if we didn't like it.
Today that doesn't make as much sense, but every period of realignment has a different motivation than the last. The 90's realignment was about chasing TV ratings and TV markets. 2010's realignment was all about cable footprints and the B1G Network business model. The future is looking to be less abstracted and more "how much is _____ fanbase willing to pay out of their pocket to have access to game feeds?" The people who are constantly wrong use the old calculation to define the next period, and the next period will be defined by the death of cable and the rise of streaming services.
If the SEC Network turns into a streaming service only, and therefore every viewer is paying monthly money to watch instead of it being the current cable footprint math, then suddenly an OU (or Kansas) is worth WAY WAY more than a NC State or Virginia Tech because it has fans nationally that will pay that price for that service.
With that said, if OU does come to the SEC it won't be all bad for us. They would trade the RRR for our game with them yearly (they need a big Texas game for recruiting), and would basically join us and Arky in tearing down Texas's brand. It wouldn't be as optimal as it is right now, but that is our only path to being the FSU of Texas without us going on a championship streak ourselves. Texas by itself in a B1G would be a Georgia Tech in 20 years, assuming they drop the RRR game to punish OU like they tried to punish us.
The only way realignment outright hurts us is if the leadership at Texas changes and the new leadership decides they won't frick OU like it did us or Arky and keep the RRR game, or even worse they decide to force Texas into the SEC. Texas plus OU in the SEC is basically game over for our program, all we will have then is the bragging point that we forced Texas to give up their network and follow us. Hopefully that is a move we can veto, but they would be worth a frickTON in a market where every fan has to pay so I could see our little "SEC veto block" falling apart.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 12:12 pm to cardboardboxer
I think you may be underestimating VPI a little bit. They are a lot like TAMU In some ways.
They boast the only other corps of cadets in the country, meaning a large portion of their fan base (like ours) is scattered at military installations across the globe. Their other major fields of study are engineering. Specifically Computer Engineering. They have more than enough to pay for streaming services. They are die hard, they are numerous and they have a substantial T-shirt fan following throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. Not to mention DelMarVa is fertile recruiting ground. The geography may not be the best fit, but for all the reasons mentioned above, they would make a fine addition to the SECe.
They boast the only other corps of cadets in the country, meaning a large portion of their fan base (like ours) is scattered at military installations across the globe. Their other major fields of study are engineering. Specifically Computer Engineering. They have more than enough to pay for streaming services. They are die hard, they are numerous and they have a substantial T-shirt fan following throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. Not to mention DelMarVa is fertile recruiting ground. The geography may not be the best fit, but for all the reasons mentioned above, they would make a fine addition to the SECe.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 12:36 pm to Howdyagssec
quote:
They boast the only other corps of cadets in the country
You mean the only other Corps of Cadets in a primarily non-uniform campus, right?
I'm pretty sure The Citadel, VMI, Norwich, and North Georgia would have a strong disagreement otherwise.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 1:10 pm to Howdyagssec
VPI is a good program and they are easily the biggest football brand in their state, but your argument makes no sense.
First of all the VPI corps is irrelevant. Much like ours in the last few decades they are at best a single digit percentage of the total student population. Even if it was a larger percentage of the alumnus, this sort of futuristic revenue metric is completely defined by "T-Shirt fans," and Virginia Tech is in a region where most T Shirt fans either follow basketball programs or whatever major program they followed before they moved to the region. Finally the ability to pay for such a network matters little, in fact I would say having a core base of responsible people making that decision is detrimental to conference because they might decide to reprioritize rather than spend the extra money. This futuristic SEC Network will be mostly financed on credit cards by the same trailer park T Shirt crowd that buys lottery tickets. OU is a goldmine for a demographic that will pay the football bill before they pay for their kid's lunch, and being a top 10 program historically means OU has those types of fans all over the country.
In just pure practical terms, VPI and NC State won't matter in the next realignment. ESPN has created a moat around the ACC with their incredibly long GOR, and it would take ESPN completely failing apart (which also takes down the SEC Network) for any ACC team to be vulnerable. The only two conferences weak enough to get poached going forward are the Big 12 and the PAC and the PAC has regional isolation protecting it.
What is more likely is just like the last cycle the B1G will move first. I predict they offer a spot to Kansas simply because college basketball as a brand is the next bubble once the NCAA loses their grip on the revenue from the tournament. Once Kansas leaves for the B1G the Big 12 will fall apart, and the SEC will take a long look at OU to avoid falling behind the B1G in revenue.
If this was my personal game of risk I too would want VPI and NC State, but that is not how this works. The ACC is as strong as ever and the Big 12 is looking worse by the day. The only question is if the Big 12 falls apart in 2024 when the GOR is up or Texas finds some way to keep it together until the LHN contract runs out in 2030.
First of all the VPI corps is irrelevant. Much like ours in the last few decades they are at best a single digit percentage of the total student population. Even if it was a larger percentage of the alumnus, this sort of futuristic revenue metric is completely defined by "T-Shirt fans," and Virginia Tech is in a region where most T Shirt fans either follow basketball programs or whatever major program they followed before they moved to the region. Finally the ability to pay for such a network matters little, in fact I would say having a core base of responsible people making that decision is detrimental to conference because they might decide to reprioritize rather than spend the extra money. This futuristic SEC Network will be mostly financed on credit cards by the same trailer park T Shirt crowd that buys lottery tickets. OU is a goldmine for a demographic that will pay the football bill before they pay for their kid's lunch, and being a top 10 program historically means OU has those types of fans all over the country.
In just pure practical terms, VPI and NC State won't matter in the next realignment. ESPN has created a moat around the ACC with their incredibly long GOR, and it would take ESPN completely failing apart (which also takes down the SEC Network) for any ACC team to be vulnerable. The only two conferences weak enough to get poached going forward are the Big 12 and the PAC and the PAC has regional isolation protecting it.
What is more likely is just like the last cycle the B1G will move first. I predict they offer a spot to Kansas simply because college basketball as a brand is the next bubble once the NCAA loses their grip on the revenue from the tournament. Once Kansas leaves for the B1G the Big 12 will fall apart, and the SEC will take a long look at OU to avoid falling behind the B1G in revenue.
If this was my personal game of risk I too would want VPI and NC State, but that is not how this works. The ACC is as strong as ever and the Big 12 is looking worse by the day. The only question is if the Big 12 falls apart in 2024 when the GOR is up or Texas finds some way to keep it together until the LHN contract runs out in 2030.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 5:00 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Yes. This. Apologies.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 5:56 pm to cardboardboxer
Fair points all. VT has plenty of T-shirt fans who would gladly shell out for the SEC network before necessities. They're definitely not a basketball first school. Beyond that I can't really argue with anything you have to say. Maybe I'm just wanting VT since I'm stuck out here in Siberia. 
Posted on 11/8/16 at 7:24 pm to Howdyagssec
Basket might drive part of the bus next realignment. Football is almost tapped out of value and if the tournament was taken from the NCAA (like the football one) it would be a huge money maker for schools. Big enough even to create a new content bubble among the Silicon Valley networks.
This post was edited on 11/8/16 at 7:25 pm
Posted on 11/8/16 at 8:00 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
or even worse they decide to force Texas into the SEC.
Bleah. Your BAS needs a drink. It only takes 4 of the current 14 to keep 'em out. I think A&M, Arkansas, and Mizzou are locks for a no vote. Even if cable blows up and everything goes à la carte so that the one-state-one-team gentleman's agreement makes somewhat less sense, I'm betting Ole Miss still remembers the LHN bullshite. And my guess is LSU would also join in, just because frick Texas. I don't see them getting in even if they wanted to. And really I can't imagine them wanting to, following A&M. That would be a huge blow to their ego.
Posted on 11/8/16 at 8:03 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
really I can't imagine them wanting to, following A&M. That would be a huge blow to their ego.
This. If they ever did come crawling to the SEC, hat in hand, that'd be the ultimate validation of our decision in the first place.
I think they'd rather die than admit that
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