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re: Updated Lunardi Bracketology
Posted on 1/24/20 at 12:21 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 1/24/20 at 12:21 pm to BHMKyle
Here's one way to compare the resumes:
**Using Bracket Matrix, the Top 40 (1-10 seeds) are what I would call "Clearly in the Tournament" as of right now
**The Last 8 teams currently projected in as well as the first 16 teams projected out would be considered "On the Bubble" or at least in consideration.
Here's where the SEC teams currently rank:
TEAMS CLEARLY IN:
#16 Auburn (4-seed)
#17 Kentucky (5-seed)
#22 LSU (6-seed)
#31 Arkansas (8-seed)
#37 Florida (10-seed)
TEAMS ON THE BUBBLE OR IN CONSIDERATION:
#51 Alabama (3rd team out)
#54 Tennessee (6th team out)
#57 Mississippi State (9th team out)
#62 Georgia (14th team out)
Now, comparing the resumes of those SEC Teams:
RECORD AGAINST TEAMS CLEARLY IN THE FIELD:
3-1 Kentucky (W over #7 MSU, #9 LOU, #31 ARK; L to #21 OSU)
2-1 LSU (W over #31 ARK, #37 UF; L to #38 USC)
1-2 Arkansas (W over #36 IU; L to #17 UK, #22 LSU)
1-3 Florida (W over #16 AU; L to #6 FSU, #12 BUT, #22 LSU)
1-3 Miss St. (W over #31 ARK; L to #14 VIL, #16 AU, #22 LSU)
1-3 Bama (W over #16 AU; L to #17 UK, #28 PSU, #37 UF
1-5 Geogia (W over #30 MEM; L to #7 MSU, #11 DAY, #16 AU, #17 UK, #17 UK)
0-1 Auburn (L to #37 UF)
0-4 Tennessee (L to #6 FSU, #22 LSU, #24 WIS, #30 MEM)
RECORD VS. BUBBLE TEAMS OR TEAMS IN CONSIDERATION:
3-0 Kentucky (W over #51 AL, #62 UGA, #62 UGA)
2-0 Florida (W over #51 AL, #53 XAV)
5-1 Auburn (W over #44 NCST, #56 RICH, #57 MSU, #59 STL, #62 UGA; L to #51 BAMA)
4-2 LSU (W over #48 LIB, #54 UT #57 MSU, #58 RI; L to #49 VCU, #64 ETSU)
2-1 Alabama (W over ##56 RICH, #57 MSU; L to #58 RI)
2-2 Tennessee (W over #49 VCU; #52 WA; L to #60 CIN, #62 UGA)
1-1 Arkansas (W over #63 TUL; L to #57 MSU)
1-1 Mississippi St. (W over #62 UGA; L to #51 BAMA)
1-1 Georgia (W over #54 UT; L to #57 MSU)
BAD LOSSES:
0- Auburn
0- Tennessee
1- Georgia(#65 AZST)
1- LSU (#73 UTST)
1- Arkansas (#115 WKU)
2- Florida (#73 UTST, #85 UCONN)
3- Alabama (#71 ISU, #113 UNC, #179 PENN)
3- Kentucky (#77 UT, #99 SC, #262 EV)
**Using Bracket Matrix, the Top 40 (1-10 seeds) are what I would call "Clearly in the Tournament" as of right now
**The Last 8 teams currently projected in as well as the first 16 teams projected out would be considered "On the Bubble" or at least in consideration.
Here's where the SEC teams currently rank:
TEAMS CLEARLY IN:
#16 Auburn (4-seed)
#17 Kentucky (5-seed)
#22 LSU (6-seed)
#31 Arkansas (8-seed)
#37 Florida (10-seed)
TEAMS ON THE BUBBLE OR IN CONSIDERATION:
#51 Alabama (3rd team out)
#54 Tennessee (6th team out)
#57 Mississippi State (9th team out)
#62 Georgia (14th team out)
Now, comparing the resumes of those SEC Teams:
RECORD AGAINST TEAMS CLEARLY IN THE FIELD:
3-1 Kentucky (W over #7 MSU, #9 LOU, #31 ARK; L to #21 OSU)
2-1 LSU (W over #31 ARK, #37 UF; L to #38 USC)
1-2 Arkansas (W over #36 IU; L to #17 UK, #22 LSU)
1-3 Florida (W over #16 AU; L to #6 FSU, #12 BUT, #22 LSU)
1-3 Miss St. (W over #31 ARK; L to #14 VIL, #16 AU, #22 LSU)
1-3 Bama (W over #16 AU; L to #17 UK, #28 PSU, #37 UF
1-5 Geogia (W over #30 MEM; L to #7 MSU, #11 DAY, #16 AU, #17 UK, #17 UK)
0-1 Auburn (L to #37 UF)
0-4 Tennessee (L to #6 FSU, #22 LSU, #24 WIS, #30 MEM)
RECORD VS. BUBBLE TEAMS OR TEAMS IN CONSIDERATION:
3-0 Kentucky (W over #51 AL, #62 UGA, #62 UGA)
2-0 Florida (W over #51 AL, #53 XAV)
5-1 Auburn (W over #44 NCST, #56 RICH, #57 MSU, #59 STL, #62 UGA; L to #51 BAMA)
4-2 LSU (W over #48 LIB, #54 UT #57 MSU, #58 RI; L to #49 VCU, #64 ETSU)
2-1 Alabama (W over ##56 RICH, #57 MSU; L to #58 RI)
2-2 Tennessee (W over #49 VCU; #52 WA; L to #60 CIN, #62 UGA)
1-1 Arkansas (W over #63 TUL; L to #57 MSU)
1-1 Mississippi St. (W over #62 UGA; L to #51 BAMA)
1-1 Georgia (W over #54 UT; L to #57 MSU)
BAD LOSSES:
0- Auburn
0- Tennessee
1- Georgia(#65 AZST)
1- LSU (#73 UTST)
1- Arkansas (#115 WKU)
2- Florida (#73 UTST, #85 UCONN)
3- Alabama (#71 ISU, #113 UNC, #179 PENN)
3- Kentucky (#77 UT, #99 SC, #262 EV)
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 12:36 pm
Posted on 1/24/20 at 12:25 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
1-3 Arkansas (W over #36 IU; L to #17 UK, #22 LSU, #37 UF
I'm I reading this wrong or are you saying Arkansas lost to UF? Guessing you meant Miss St.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 12:36 pm to rockiee
quote:
I'm I reading this wrong or are you saying Arkansas lost to UF? Guessing you meant Miss St.
My bad. I read my spreadsheet wrong. It should be 1-2 with losses just to UK and LSU. Fixed.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 12:50 pm to BHMKyle
man if my team in the bracket was facing any of those teams other than Arky at those seeds id be pissed.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 12:55 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
FIRST FOUR OUT: Alabama
Team Rankings has Bama at a 92% chance to make the tournament ranked 38th. Im going to choose to listen to them
Posted on 1/24/20 at 12:57 pm to deltaland
quote:
LSU at a 6 being undefeated in conference and MSU not even in the discussion is complete crap
LSU has some bad OOC losses, including a home arse kicking by ETSU. That and the SEC has been kind of shitty this season
Posted on 1/24/20 at 1:27 pm to StopRobot
quote:
Team Rankings has Bama at a 92% chance to make the tournament ranked 38th. Im going to choose to listen to them
Team Rankings also has Northern Iowa as a 6-seed, St. Mary's and ETSU as 7-seeds, and Rhode Island safely in as a 9-seed... which is obviously flawed.
Meanwhile they have Ohio State way back at an 11-seed and Michigan as a 12-seed.
Obviously Team Rankings is not very accurate.
As you said, they have Bama as an 8-seed, one spot ahead of 9-seed Penn State. Penn State has a NET of #29 to Bama's #38. Penn State has 5 Quadrant 1 wins to Bama's one. Penn State has 8 Quadrant 1+2 wins to Bama's three, and Penn State has only one loss to a team currently projected outside the Field of 68 compared to Bama who has four bad losses. Oh, and I forgot to mention that Penn State beat Alabama head-to-head.
Now how in the hell could any system rank Bama ahead of Penn State? Never fear, Team Rankings does. Which is one of the many reasons why that site is completely unreliable.
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 1/24/20 at 1:31 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Which is one of the many reasons why that site is completely unreliable.
It just depends on what you are using it for
I know a couple of weeks ago you came out with some overall win totals that were needed to reach the tournament. Team rankings was pretty much spot on with what you said and I agree with as well.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 1:38 pm to rockiee
quote:
I know a couple of weeks ago you came out with some overall win totals that were needed to reach the tournament. Team rankings was pretty much spot on with what you said and I agree with as well.
There are parts of that site which are okay, but when you start to look at their seed list you realize they have some MAJOR outliers.
I mean Northern Iowa has a NET of #51. They have one lone win over teams in the NET Top 90. They lost to #174 Southern Illinois and #216 Illinois State. I mean nothing about that resume even comes close to consideration as an At-Large team in the Tournament.... yet somehow Team Rankings not only has them as an At-Large team, they have them seeded all the way up at a 6-seed.
I mean, what the heck??
Posted on 1/24/20 at 1:54 pm to deltaland
Am I missing something with MSU? They haven't really beaten anyone good and are 12-6 (3-3 SEC)
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 1/24/20 at 2:49 pm to WilliamTaylor21
quote:
WilliamTaylor21
FIRST FOUR OUT: A1abana
Posted on 1/24/20 at 3:13 pm to gmoney1237
quote:
Am I missing something with MSU? They haven't really beaten anyone good and are 12-6 (3-3 SEC)
No. They aren't in many projections. I think the foundation is there that if they could get a big win or two (Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, etc.), their resume might be good enough. They only have two relatively bad losses, but even those aren't THAT bad in the grand scheme of things. Here are their losses
#15 Villanova
#18 Auburn
#25 LSU
#37 Alabama
#91 Louisiana Tech
#109 New Mexico State
Their best wins over against #33 Arkansas, #75 Georgia, #83 Missouri, and #89 Kansas State.
They are missing probably one more elite win to truly be on the Bubble. Right now I think they are one of those teams that is considered "in consideration."
Their next three games are:
@ #47 Oklahoma
@ #35 Florida
#59 Tennessee
I think if they can somehow win 2 of the next 3, they will be squarely on the Bubble, if not one of the last teams in.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 3:14 pm to BHMKyle
quote:Utah is "UU"
3- Kentucky (#77 UT,
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