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re: Tuesday SEC Baseball
Posted on 3/25/25 at 11:29 am to BigBro
Posted on 3/25/25 at 11:29 am to BigBro
I'm not sure about this stat.. thought process below.
So I wanted to compare a teams OPS to expected OPS based on the opponent.
S1 = Series 1
(ie Georgia played Kentucky)
Kentucky Pitchers have allowed opponents an OPS of .647 on the year
S2 = Series 2
(ie Georgia played Florida)
Florida Pitchers have allowed opponents an OPS of .723 on the year
AVG
(Series 1 + Series 2) / 2
(ie Georgia's 2 opponents = (.647 + .723) / 2 = .685
Other Known Stats
Georgia OPS Hitting = 1.096 on the year
SEC Teams OPS ~ 87.5% during SEC Play
therefore..
eOPS = 1.096 * (.685 / .681) * 87.5% = 0.964 for Georgia
They actually have an OPS in SEC games of 1.207..
which is about 25% higher than expected..
Why? Hard to say. It's baseball. Maybe they got lucky. Maybe they just had really good weekends.. or their opponents didn't. Too early to tell.
What I do know for sure..
Texas A&M and Florida are really struggling at the plate.
Other Thoughts
LSU struggled a little bit this weekend. Perhaps being on the road, perhaps the Texas pitching just had a good weekend.
Texas definitely had some lucky bounces this weekend, specifically on Saturday and Sunday, so their numbers were about 16% higher than expected.
Alabama faced 2 really good pitching staff's in A&M and Tennessee, and their OPS was about 6% lower than expected. They won't be facing rotations like that very often the rest of the season.
So I wanted to compare a teams OPS to expected OPS based on the opponent.
S1 = Series 1
(ie Georgia played Kentucky)
Kentucky Pitchers have allowed opponents an OPS of .647 on the year
S2 = Series 2
(ie Georgia played Florida)
Florida Pitchers have allowed opponents an OPS of .723 on the year
AVG
(Series 1 + Series 2) / 2
(ie Georgia's 2 opponents = (.647 + .723) / 2 = .685
Other Known Stats
Georgia OPS Hitting = 1.096 on the year
SEC Teams OPS ~ 87.5% during SEC Play
therefore..
eOPS = 1.096 * (.685 / .681) * 87.5% = 0.964 for Georgia
They actually have an OPS in SEC games of 1.207..
which is about 25% higher than expected..
Why? Hard to say. It's baseball. Maybe they got lucky. Maybe they just had really good weekends.. or their opponents didn't. Too early to tell.
What I do know for sure..
Texas A&M and Florida are really struggling at the plate.
Other Thoughts
LSU struggled a little bit this weekend. Perhaps being on the road, perhaps the Texas pitching just had a good weekend.
Texas definitely had some lucky bounces this weekend, specifically on Saturday and Sunday, so their numbers were about 16% higher than expected.
Alabama faced 2 really good pitching staff's in A&M and Tennessee, and their OPS was about 6% lower than expected. They won't be facing rotations like that very often the rest of the season.
This post was edited on 3/25/25 at 11:36 am
0
Posted on 3/25/25 at 11:37 am to 214
quote:
You're a great contributor to this board. Appreciate all the tables and stats.
He’s like SummerOfGeorge with fewer homosexual tendencies
Posted on 3/25/25 at 12:00 pm to bigDgator
I would put us in the contender category until we see a few more series
Posted on 3/25/25 at 2:15 pm to BigBro
Stud for one reason
quote:
VOL-antis
Posted on 3/25/25 at 2:36 pm to IvIerlot
quote:
Stud for one reason
quote:
VOL-antis
Anti-Vols
Posted on 3/25/25 at 3:00 pm to BigBro
Even better.
quote:
Anti-VOLS
Posted on 3/25/25 at 3:47 pm to IvIerlot
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Dawgs giving Robbie Burnett and Henry Hunter the day off
Posted on 3/25/25 at 4:23 pm to diddlydawg7
Looks like we are giving Zabo a day off too, rest of the country has time to catch up them
Posted on 3/25/25 at 4:23 pm to diddlydawg7
McCarthy 3-run bomb
Posted on 3/25/25 at 4:26 pm to diddlydawg7
Ryan Black back in the lineup after straining a quad vs Kentucky. Good to see
Posted on 3/25/25 at 4:41 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
Looks like we are giving Zabo a day off too, rest of the country has time to catch up them
This post was edited on 3/25/25 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 3/25/25 at 4:59 pm to BigBro
4-0 Dawgs
B3
B3
Posted on 3/25/25 at 5:23 pm to BigBro
FSU 1-0
B-1
B-1
Posted on 3/25/25 at 5:25 pm to ArHog
9-0 Dawgs in the 4th
Don't even need Zabo...
West Georgia coming back!
9-4 Dawgs in the 5th
This post was edited on 3/25/25 at 5:55 pm
Posted on 3/25/25 at 5:56 pm to BigBro
Beat down by the Dawgs
Posted on 3/25/25 at 6:13 pm to ArHog
Well we let West Georgia back in it after trying to let a freshman get some work
I know midweeks are a time to get guys a little experience but sometimes I think Wes goes too far with it.
At the end of the day the game does affect your RPI and seeding and it would suck to drop a game like this with your two best batters on the bench and a few guys who will never pitch in SEC play blowing the game.
I know midweeks are a time to get guys a little experience but sometimes I think Wes goes too far with it.
At the end of the day the game does affect your RPI and seeding and it would suck to drop a game like this with your two best batters on the bench and a few guys who will never pitch in SEC play blowing the game.
Posted on 3/25/25 at 6:20 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
Well we let West Georgia back in it after trying to let a freshman get some work
It happens in midweek games. Pretty sure our bullpen will get some good work in.
Posted on 3/25/25 at 6:21 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
Well we let West Georgia back in it after trying to let a freshman get some work I know midweeks are a time to get guys a little experience but sometimes I think Wes goes too far with it. At the end of the day the game does affect your RPI and seeding and it would suck to drop a game like this with your two best batters on the bench and a few guys who will never pitch in SEC play blowing the game.
We’ve lost to some really bad teams doing the same thing. It’s the only way to get these dudes some work and see what they can do early in the season. This is the time to do these things and tinker with the lineup.
No big deal.
Posted on 3/25/25 at 6:23 pm to Clark14
This pitching sometimes 
Posted on 3/25/25 at 6:32 pm to LonghornCheekClapper
1-0 Mo State
T3
T3
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