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re: Too Early? Iron Bowl and "How Far" Auburn has come
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:44 pm to IAmReality
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:44 pm to IAmReality
quote:
Going 7-1 and squeaking by weak competition says alot to.
is this where I point out the 2009 Bama team squeaked by crummy Tennessee (at home) and Auburn... then beat a four loss LSU team by single digits at home?
1
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:46 pm to lowspark12
It says that Alabama team wasn't as dominant as their record indicated.
They were 14-0 but very close to 12-2.
They were 14-0 but very close to 12-2.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:46 pm to IAmReality
quote:
This is patently absurd.
They don't guarantee anything, but they do give you a very strong indication of how things will PROBABLY go.
No it is not, especially when you have a QB that has been on campus as little time as Marshall has. You sir are full of shite. AU is a much different team than when they played MSU or Ole Miss for that matter. 
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:47 pm to beatbammer
quote:What do you expect from a poster who thinks a pick 6 on the 3rd play of the 3rd quarter = "late in the game?"quote:Ahhhhhh the ol' Transitive Property of Football. Solid analysis, Einstein.
TAMU intercepted a pass for a pick 6 late in the game against Arky to win that game. Looking at it reasonably, this game will go down to the wire
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:47 pm to The Spleen
quote:
Do you not think every fanbase would be using it against Bama if they played every week like they did against Va Tech? Of course they would, and they'd have a valid point.
No they wouldn't, they too would be full of shite. Bama's O-line was terrible at that point, now not so much.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:48 pm to IAmReality
quote:
their record is still better than they are
And here all along I thought Beer was the runaway winner in the Stupid Contest.
I was wrong.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:49 pm to IAmReality
quote:
It says that Alabama team wasn't as dominant as their record indicated.
in the words of the great Bill Parcells... 'you are what you are'.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:50 pm to AUsteriskPride
quote:
No they wouldn't, they too would be full of shite. Bama's O-line was terrible at that point, now not so much.
I said if they'd played like that EVERY WEEK. Meaning, they'd shown little improvement.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:51 pm to The Spleen
quote:
I said if they'd played like that EVERY WEEK.
Well lucky for AU fans, they haven't done it every week. AU is easily handling the teams they should now (hasn't happened in a long time). They are a vastly improved team over the start of the season.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:54 pm to IAmReality
You're being what they call "resulted oriented"
What you fail to understand is that not every team has a 100% chance of winning a game.
If you're 51% to win every game and you win 10 in a row, you're running very well. Your record is 10-0, but your "expected" record is closer to 5-5.
At the end of the day we judge teams by the final score of one single game, but a good way of looking at is is
"If those two teams played 100 times, what would the results be?"
For example if Alabama played A&M 100 times this year, it's pretty clear A&M would win a decent chunk of the games. Maybe 20-40% even.
But if Alabama played Kentucky 100 times this year, it's pretty clear Alabama would win almost every single one.
It's like the Alabama/LSU in 2011 thing. It's pretty clear both teams were perfectly capable of beating each other and were very equally matched.
Cliff Notes: Just because you win a single game doesn't make you better than the opponent you just beat and just because you lost a single game doesn't make you worse than the opponent, from a very high level analysis standpoint.
What you fail to understand is that not every team has a 100% chance of winning a game.
If you're 51% to win every game and you win 10 in a row, you're running very well. Your record is 10-0, but your "expected" record is closer to 5-5.
At the end of the day we judge teams by the final score of one single game, but a good way of looking at is is
"If those two teams played 100 times, what would the results be?"
For example if Alabama played A&M 100 times this year, it's pretty clear A&M would win a decent chunk of the games. Maybe 20-40% even.
But if Alabama played Kentucky 100 times this year, it's pretty clear Alabama would win almost every single one.
It's like the Alabama/LSU in 2011 thing. It's pretty clear both teams were perfectly capable of beating each other and were very equally matched.
Cliff Notes: Just because you win a single game doesn't make you better than the opponent you just beat and just because you lost a single game doesn't make you worse than the opponent, from a very high level analysis standpoint.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:55 pm to AUsteriskPride
My point was it is fair to doubt Auburn because 4 of their wins against near equal competition have been close games. I'm not saying AU is a bad team, and I'm not saying they haven't improved as the season has progressed. Just pointing out a trend in their games, which is a factor used to prognosticate future games.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:57 pm to AUsteriskPride
So in your opinion there's NO difference between say
Beating Ole Miss, MSU, and Washington State by 40 points each, dominating every statsitical category vs. winning each game by a FG in overtime.
I mean heck, in both situations your 4-0! I mean that says your good, you won!
Yep, let's say your opponent is kicking a FG for the win on the last play. Does him making or missing the FG magically mean your team is good or bad?
Your team is what it is, regardless of whether he makes that FG, but that FG will determine the W/L.
Beating Ole Miss, MSU, and Washington State by 40 points each, dominating every statsitical category vs. winning each game by a FG in overtime.
I mean heck, in both situations your 4-0! I mean that says your good, you won!
Yep, let's say your opponent is kicking a FG for the win on the last play. Does him making or missing the FG magically mean your team is good or bad?
Your team is what it is, regardless of whether he makes that FG, but that FG will determine the W/L.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:57 pm to IAmReality
quote:
You're being what they call "resulted oriented"
I thought that was the name of the game. I mean Auburn fans were chastised for playing close in loses, that were still losses. I thought the end result was all that mattered.
Can you guys please stick to one talking point. it gets very confusing over time
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:58 pm to The Calvin
ITT: Lots of posters who are uneasy about the AU resurgence.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 1:59 pm to IAmReality
The Vegas lines are the only thing to go by, as they are free of homer'ism and strictly business.
Auburn would be a double digit underdog to Alabama at this point.
I'm sorry if you feel like your team is getting "dissed" but it is what it is.
Nobody is buying Auburn is one of the best 10 teams in the country right now because they aren't.
Auburn would be a double digit underdog to Alabama at this point.
I'm sorry if you feel like your team is getting "dissed" but it is what it is.
Nobody is buying Auburn is one of the best 10 teams in the country right now because they aren't.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 2:00 pm to BoCam2
quote:
ITT: Lots of posters who are uneasy about the AU resurgence.
Win 3 SEC games including 2 over the Mississippi schools = resurgence
Gotcha.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 2:00 pm to IAmReality
How has Vegas been doing against AU lately? Hint: I already know the answer.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 2:01 pm to BoCam2
quote:
How has Vegas been doing against AU lately? Hint: I already know the answer.
Posted on 11/1/13 at 2:01 pm to IAmReality
quote:
I love the willful ignorance.
If you beat 4 crappy teams by 1 point on a last second FG or in OT it says a lot about your team vs. beating those same 4 crappy teams by 30.
Sure, the record is 4-0 in both cases, but it ain't the damn same when it comes to predicting the future.
2010 Auburn
beat 6-7 Clemson in OT due to a missed FG
beat 6-7 Kentucky by 3 on a last second FG
talk about willful ignorance
Posted on 11/1/13 at 2:02 pm to IAmReality
quote:
The Vegas lines are the only thing to go by, as they are free of homer'ism and strictly business.
Auburn would be a double digit underdog to Alabama at this point.
Meh, they were a double digit underdog to A&M.. Next talking point please..
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