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re: The Next Superpower

Posted on 7/16/08 at 12:00 pm to
Posted by ehidal1
Chief Boot Knocka
Member since Dec 2007
37324 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

Nick lost to UAB before putting us back on top
True, but he also took over a 3-8 team and went 8-4 in his first year. First year at Bama, he took a 6-6 team and went 6-6.
Posted by Towelie
America's Wang
Member since Aug 2007
19226 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 12:11 pm to
and? We still lost to UAB...on homecoming
Posted by I-59 Tiger
Vestavia Hills, AL
Member since Sep 2003
36889 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

Excuses that UAB team back then was better than ULM last year in


I don't think UAB being 7-4 and ULM being 6-6 is an excuse.

The UAB game was in September;the ULM game was in November. Shouldn't Saban's sheer brilliance have come through by then ?
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

Keep in mind you are replying to a guy who is a fan of a team with "National Champion Recruiting" t-shirts. A lot of 'Bama fans have convinced themselves that a 'recruiting title' is almost the same as a 'real one'


That is EXACTLY right. I talked to a gump yesterday that was truly convinced of the following (which is very representative of gumpland):

1. The West is in decline - ESP LSU and AU.

2. Saban is a better on field coach with better assistants.

3. Mcelnut was Saban's FIRST choice as OC b/c he was the only one interviewed.

4. Bama has not had nearly the onfield talent and recruiting that AU has (though Bama has a higher average star rating than LSU or AU over the last 4 years and about the same as AU over the last 5).

5. Tubbs will not even be at AU in 2 or at most 3 years because he sees "what's coming".

All he wants to talk about is recruiting and how Saban is one of the best coaches in America. In recruiting, yes. On gameday,

Again, Saban CANNOT and WILL NOT win big without supperior talent. AU has probably averaged around about #15 in recruiting this decade yet has the best record in the SEC on the field against the SEC. Just don't see Tubbs being so goddamn scared he is gonna pack his shite in a couple of years and how LSU is about to rapidily go straight down hill and into the toilet by 2010.
Posted by ehidal1
Chief Boot Knocka
Member since Dec 2007
37324 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

and? We still lost to UAB...on homecoming
I never denied that point. I was there. The discussion was about Saban making Bama a superpower. I was making a point that he is already behind his pace at LSU. IMO I think he has lost a little after his NFL stint, much like other college guys do after going to the NFL. Between his reputation taking a hit, the emergence of the spread offense in the SEC, and competing more for recruits, I don't think he will be as successful at Bama as he was at LSU.

He is a fantastic recruiter, great program builder, and decent coach. He will rebuild Bama. I am not convinced he will to the level that he did at LSU. JMO
Posted by RollTide MJ
Tuscaloosa, AL
Member since Nov 2007
9523 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

I don't think UAB being 7-4 and ULM being 6-6 is an excuse.

The UAB game was in September;the ULM game was in November. Shouldn't Saban's sheer brilliance have come through by then ?


My quote wasn't intended for the rational LSU fans.

Posted by TulaneTigerFan
Seattle
Member since Sep 2005
35856 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

4. Bama has not had nearly the onfield talent and recruiting that AU has (though Bama has a higher average star rating than LSU or AU over the last 4 years and about the same as AU over the last 5).


i don't know where you got that from, but it couldn't be further from the truth
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

i don't know where you got that from, but it couldn't be further from the truth


Last 4 years according to rivals:

Auburn:
2008 - 20
2007 - 7
2006 - 10
2005 - 13
2004 - 21

Bama:
2008 - 1
2007 - 10
2006 - 11
2005 - 18
2004 - 15

LSU:
2008 - 11
2007 - 4
2006 - 7
2005 - 22
2004 - 2

Average last 4 years:
AU - 12.5
Bama - 10
LSU - 11

Last 5 years:
AU - 12.2
Bama - 11
LSU - 9.2


So, last 4 years: Bama better than AU AND LSU. Last 5 better than AU and less 1.8 spots behind LSU.
This post was edited on 7/16/08 at 1:14 pm
Posted by TulaneTigerFan
Seattle
Member since Sep 2005
35856 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:08 pm to
i was talking about the lsu part of the quote...
Posted by TulaneTigerFan
Seattle
Member since Sep 2005
35856 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:13 pm to
that's a really flawed way to look at . lsu had one class that was ranked 22nd but only because they only had room for 13 kids, even though that class had a 3.7 star rating. the more accurate way to look at it is the star averages, in which bama is wayyyyy below LSU. i'm not going to take the time to compute it right now, but i'm pretty sure LSU's 4 year star average is actually better than bama's "best class ever" last year. especially once you factor in the players they have lost from that class
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:15 pm to
In the big picture, each team has 85 schollies and you go back 5 years and you have practically everybody on the roster for a given team. So, the rankings even out and are very comparable over a 5 year frame when looking at the final rankings for recruiting.
This post was edited on 7/16/08 at 1:17 pm
Posted by TulaneTigerFan
Seattle
Member since Sep 2005
35856 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:17 pm to
you don't understand what i'm saying. the final team ranking number is not as accurate a way to measure the talent on the team as the star average. the star average is measuring every single individual player and their ranking. using where the class finishes in a given year doesn't make any sense because it's all relative to how well other schools recruit and the size of the class, at least from a small class perspective. the majority of years bama would not have had a #1 class with those players. for instance LSU's 2007 class was superior to bama's class last year but they didn't finish 1st because florida and usc had sick classes
This post was edited on 7/16/08 at 1:19 pm
Posted by xiv
Parody. #AdminsRule
Member since Feb 2004
39508 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:19 pm to
Rutgers
Illinois
Missouri
Cincinnati

Sometime during our lives, these will be superpowers simply because there is literally nothing preventing them from being so. Fertile recruiting grounds, big state universities...

I'd put South Florida in there, but with three state schools with whom to compete, I see them contending occasionally (or even usually), but not being feared as a superpower.

I don't expect Rutgers ever to be considered again a "weak" program.
Posted by Proejo
Dallas
Member since Oct 2007
5889 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:20 pm to
Saban was successful against a far less powerful SEC West than it is today. Couldn't beat Florida at home that "championship" year and frankly, LSU was lucky that OU had mental troubles after losing the BigXII championship after being called the "greatest college football team ever" all season long and that the game was in the Superdome. It was a great team, no doubt about it, but consider:

-Alabama was in the thick middle of NCAA sanctions.
-MSU wasn't even bowl eligible.
-Auburn was only good enough to get to the Music City Bowl
-Arkansas was only good enough to get to the Independence Bowl
-Ole Miss was the only team in the West besides LSU worth a damn (that tells you how poorly represented the West was that year!)

Anyway... The SEC WEST in two years will still have a "damn strong" LSU, a vastly improved MSU, Petrino's makeover at Arkansas should be jelled, Nutt will have Jevon Snead as a Heisman contender at Ole Miss and Auburn's going to be as strong as ever. Saban's not going to outcoach anyone and the talent level will not be any greater than that at LSU.

Now... as a fan, the SEC West in a couple of years is going to cause a lot of heart attacks spread all across Arkansas, Louisiana Mississippi and Alabama. It should be fun!
Posted by Proejo
Dallas
Member since Oct 2007
5889 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

Rutgers
Illinois
Missouri
Cincinnati

Sometime during our lives, these will be superpowers






Go back and have another hit on that bong for me, will ya'?
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

Now... as a fan, the SEC West in a couple of years is going to cause a lot of heart attacks spread all across Arkansas, Louisiana Mississippi and Alabama. It should be fun!


Sure the hell is.
Posted by xiv
Parody. #AdminsRule
Member since Feb 2004
39508 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

Go back and have another hit on that bong for me, will ya'?

Dumb post. Missouri and Rutgers each have been within 7 points of a BCS bowl in the past two years, and there's no sign of either program slowing down.

Look at the population of Missouri and New Jersey, and look how many FBS programs are in each state. Sooner or later, recruits are going to forget what "Nebraska" and "Joe Pa" mean and go to a football programs that actually have something going on. It's already happening.

And there's a guy named Zook who knows how to recruit a national championship-caliber team in a state that's ripe with football recruits.
Posted by ehidal1
Chief Boot Knocka
Member since Dec 2007
37324 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:32 pm to
Illinois could get to OSU type status in the Big 10. I have always said that Zook and RR could completely transform the Big 10, much like Spurrier did in the SEC in the 90s, making it more speed and 'SEC' like. Rutgers and Missouri are programs that can get to a high level and sustain, but not superpowers IMO. Cincy is interesting...They can really do something, but in most 'pro sports' cities, you don't really see big time college sports.
Posted by xiv
Parody. #AdminsRule
Member since Feb 2004
39508 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

Illinois could get to OSU type status in the Big 10.
You're absolutely right. Ohio State and Michigan appear able to continue a certain level of dominance in the Big Ten, but there's definitely room for another big boy in such a big conference.

Illinois: ripe. Great coach + great state.
Indiana: never.
Iowa: downslide; almost had it.
Michigan State: little brother.
Minnesota: somehow became a runt.
Northwestern: runt.
Penn State: in 5-10 years.
Purdue: never.
Wisconsin: on the cusp, should compete with Illinois for that "next big thing" slot.
Posted by Proejo
Dallas
Member since Oct 2007
5889 posts
Posted on 7/16/08 at 1:37 pm to
Getting to the pinnacle and then STAYING there are two different things and only one of them defines a superpower. I don't see any of those being superpowers.... ever!
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