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Teams that were most overrated in the 21st century
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:48 am
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:48 am
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In other words, how often do teams in the 21st century finish worse than where they started in the AP Top 25? Here are the percentages for the first batch of teams I ran through (the higher the percentage means the more overrated a team is):
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I thought Georgia and Auburn would be higher. The more teams I crunched the numbers for, the more I realized that they weren’t bad at all.
Yes, I’ve got more teams!
Texas A&M: 100% (only 7 times)
Florida State: 83%
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Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:09 am to Jaydeaux
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Texas A&M: 100% (only 7 times)
Three of those seasons ended with the coach being fired. (2002, 2007, 2011)
This is a specific result of three things.
1. Voters grossly underrating A&M one season, then grossly overrating them the following season, usually as a result of a convincing bowl win.
2. Inconsistent at best, awful at worst coaching.
3. Bowl loss that season.
2000. Started ranked 25th. Should have never been ranked to start the season given the number of starters lost from the 1999 team, a brand new quarterback, etc. A win in the "Snow Bowl" would have resulted in an end of season ranking.
2002. Legitimately ranked to start the year, but Slocum had a series of choke jobs that led to his firing.
2005. After the way A&M lost the Cotton Bowl the previous season, they should never have been ranked in 2005.
2007. Franchione was fired after the t.u. win and lost to Kansas at home. A win over Penn State in the Alamo Bowl would have resulted in an end of season ranking.
2011. Absolutely no excuse for what Sherman did that season. 5 losses in which A&M led by multiple scores in the 2nd half (4 when leading by 3 or more scores)
2013. Pollsters drastically underestimated how much was lost from the 2012 defense and how horrible their backups were.
2014. The first year of Sumlin playing "Musical Quarterbacks".
2019. Coach Fisher at the very beginning of the season openly questioned why the team was ranked 12th. Let's be honest, had Utah not bent over and taken it in such spectacular fashion, A&M would have been ranked 25th to end the year and not a worse team with the same record. (Only one 5-loss team was ranked at the end of the year and they did NOT deserve to be)
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 10:16 am
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:11 am to Jaydeaux
quote:
thought Georgia and Auburn would be higher. The more teams I crunched the numbers for, the more I realized that they weren’t bad at all.
Of course. Message board folk rarely take facts into account
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:18 am to Jaydeaux
quote:
I thought Georgia and Auburn would be higher. The more teams I crunched the numbers for, the more I realized that they weren’t bad at all.
No shite. Despite facts being thrown in your faces of the message board posters on here you guys keep saying it.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:20 am to CGSC Lobotomy
Why are you trying to explain this? You’re finally first and you’re trying to make excuses
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:21 am to WG_Dawg
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Of course. Message board folk rarely take facts into account
Yes, faggie one post above doing just that.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:22 am to CGSC Lobotomy
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(Only one 5-loss team was ranked at the end of the year and they did NOT deserve to be)
That's a top 10 win brah. Also UVA was top 25 in the coaches poll instead of Texas.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:24 am to CGSC Lobotomy
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(Only one 5-loss team was ranked at the end of the year and they did NOT deserve to be)
Texas beat a top 5 team and A&M didnt.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:32 am to MoarKilometers
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That's a top 10 win brah.
Utah was ranked 11th when they played in the Alamo Bowl.
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Texas beat a top 5 team and A&M didnt.
Who would that be? They beat 2 ranked teams that season (#16 Kansas State, #11 Utah) and lost to 2 teams that finished with 6 or more losses.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 10:34 am
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:35 am to CGSC Lobotomy
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Who would that be? They beat 2 ranked teams that season (#16 Kansas State, #11 Utah) and lost to 2 teams that finished with 6 or more losses.
My bad, forgot about Utah's plummet after their conference championship loss.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:28 pm to Jaydeaux
seems his analysis doesnt include years where a team starts unranked, and finishes ranked.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:34 pm to Jaydeaux
I remember when LSU was notorious for finishing below their preseason ranking
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:55 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
2002 Slocum defeated the #1 team in the land....damn it!
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:57 pm to Jaydeaux
Tennessee was very overrated in 2016, jmo
Posted on 4/5/20 at 2:06 pm to scionofadrunk
As a guy that grew up a Tennessee fan and still pull for them, those losses to South Carolina and Vandy in 2016 we're inexcusable.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 2:11 pm to Bankshot
Oh yeah, don't remind me.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 2:23 pm to Oklahomey
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2002 Slocum defeated the #1 team in the land....damn it!
Then promptly lost at home to a 5-win Missouri team in overtime.
Prior to that, he blew a 17-point 3rd quarter lead to Texas Tech and a 17-point 3rd quarter lead to Nebraska in consecutive home games.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 2:24 pm
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