re: SEC CG loser & their amount of games played

There is only one three loss SEC team in the last five years that was in the top 11 of the CFP rankings used to choose the playoff teams. Florida was ranked 7th in 2020, but that was a truncated, abnormal season.

In 2019 9-3 Auburn was ranked #12, but they would have been left at home for the top ranked G5 school who was ranked outside the top 12.

If you look at the rankings, you see how rare it would have been the last five years for a 3 loss SEC team to make a 12 team playoff assuming the committee has the same thought process as past committees. The only year one would have made it was 2020. And that year was an outlier.

I think fans of SEC teams with 3 losses are going to usually be very disappointed on playoff selection Sunday.

It's starting to look like it's possible for a 2 loss SECCG loser getting their 3rd loss resulting in being left out of the playoffs completely, while a team sits at home for the SECCG and gets in with 2 losses.

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So the SECCG loser not being in the Top 12 is the exception

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Auburn would have made it with three losses and a loss in the SEC championship. They look like the only one.

The exception is the SEC runner-up having three losses. Let’s just throw out 2020. Other than that, in the 10 years since the CFP started, the loser of the SEC championship had three losses coming out of that game four times. Three of four times they were ranked outside the top 12 on selection day.
Auburn would have in 2017.

The previous 3 loss SEC runner-up was Florida in 2016. They were #15 in the CFP selection rankings.

The year before that, Florida also lost the SEC championship game. They entered the SEC championship game with 2 losses and ranked #12. After their loss, their third of the season, they fell six spots to #18.

In both of those seasons, one of Florida’s losses was out of conference to FSU.

The year before that Missouri entered the SEC championship game with two losses. They lost, picked up their third loss, and were ranked 16th in the CFP selection rankings.

Three examples of an SEC team picking up their third loss in the SEC championship game in a “normal” season meant they wouldn’t have made the playoffs. The only year in the history of the CFP they would have would have been 2017.

Based on this history, why are you so certain a three loss SEC championship game loser would make the playoffs?

Yes it's been discussed, and yes if you make it to the CCG you better win the thing.

If you don't win then it's better for your playoff run to be sitting home as the 3rd place team that weekend. The loser of the CCG not only has the indignity of a loss with all eyes watching, but also gets no rest and recovery before jumping straight into the playoffs.

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Yes, 2020 was an anomaly. You could speculate that without a truncated season there would have been more than one 3 loss SEC team in the Top 11 or 12 if a full season was played.

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You could also speculate that if so many programs hadn’t sat out all or much of the season, there would have been many more one and two loss teams that would have bumped Florida out of the top twelve. That seems much more logical to me based on history.

You already mentioned Auburn. I thought that was established. I went and edited my posts for clarity.

Other than Auburn, are there any examples? All the additional ones I found, three of them, would have resulted in the team missing the playoffs.

So only 25% of the time would a 3 loss SEC championship game participant have made the playoffs. I am trying to understand why you think they would be a lock if it happened this year.