SDS: Power ranking the SEC offenses for 2020

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Here’s a crazy thought.

Entering 2019, the last time an SEC team finished in the top 2 in FBS in scoring offense was Florida in 2001. That was Steve Spurrier’s last year in Gainesville, and a young, rocket-armed quarterback by the name of “Rex Grossman” nearly won the Heisman Trophy (he should’ve if you ask Florida/non-Nebraska fans).

That was over 18 years ago. As in, there were college freshmen who had never seen an SEC team finish with one of the top 2 offenses in America.

That is, until 2019.

LSU and Alabama finished No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, which tells you about all you need to know about the changing tide in the latter half of the 2010s. Crazy it is to think that in 2019, the SEC had more offenses finish in the top 2 than the rest of the 21st century combined.

So what does that mean for 2020? After all, so many of those dynamic offensive skill players are gone. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa fueled a special era in SEC football, and they highlighted a draft class that had 9 (!) offensive players from the SEC. There’s a lot of production to replace, yes, but even at places like LSU and Alabama, the systems are built to light up scoreboards for the foreseeable future.

Keep in mind that power rankings are about what I think a team is capable of in Week 1 of the 2020 season. That leans heavily on things like percentage of returning production, proven skill players and established systems. The confidence I have with a team’s starting quarterback is important, but it’s not everything.

On that note, let’s power rank some SEC offenses.

14. Vanderbilt
13. South Carolina
12. Arkansas
11. Mizzou
10. Tennessee
9. Auburn
8. Ole Miss
7. Kentucky
6. Mississippi State
5. Georgia
4. Texas A&M

3. Florida

If you’re anti-Kyle Trask, I’ve got news for you. I don’t think many quarterbacks could’ve stepped in and performed as well as he did. The guy threw 25 touchdown passes and completed 67% of his passes for a team that won a New Year’s 6 Bowl and finished No. 6 in the country. This year, he’s got an entire offseason with the first-teamers (sort of) and he’s still got one of the best offensive minds in America in his ear. He’ll also have what should be a better offensive line than the inexperienced unit who was far too mediocre a season ago.

The Gators will need to find someone to replace glue guys Van Jefferson and Freddie Swain, but returning the likes of Kyle Pitts, Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney will help Trask, as will the addition of former 5-star Miami (FL) back Lorenzo Lingard. Florida overcame poor offensive line play and a season-ending injury to the starting quarterback, yet it still had a top-30 offense.

This should be Florida’s best offense since Tim Tebow was in Gainesville. Nobody should be surprised if the Gators boast a top-20 offense at season’s end.

2. LSU

I know, I know, I know. How can I sit here and talk about the importance of percentage of offensive returning production and move past the fact that LSU is dead last in the SEC? Isn’t that a bit hypocritical? I hear you. I also hear the fact that the Tigers lost the guy who had the best single season in college football history, who was among an absurd 7 offensive players drafted.

LSU isn’t going to best its own record for most points scored in a season, but it also isn’t about to fall off the face of the earth. This offensive line isn’t going to take a step back and while the likes of first-round picks Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire were invaluable pieces, let’s not forget what LSU has returning at the skill positions. Chris Curry was plenty effective when Edwards-Helaire was banged up in the Peach Bowl, and former 5-star tailback John Emery Jr. is chomping at the bit for more work.

Ja’Marr Chase was the best receiver in America in 2019, and he’ll lead a group that includes Terrace Marshall. Only 4 receivers at the Power 5 level had more than Marshall’s 13 touchdowns, and 2 of those guys were Chase and Jefferson. Racey McMath is the forgotten guy in that group who has all the makings of a breakout star in that offense.

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Under-radar name to remember for ‘21 NFL draft is @LSUfootball WR Racey McMath. Hybrid WR/F has been used in 12 personnel. Some cool flash plays on ‘19 tape. We like him based off tools similarities to @seniorbowl alum & Seahawks pick Stephen Sullivan. #TheDraftStartsInMOBILE pic.twitter.com/aHAwMu13l0

— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) June 30, 2020

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That offense, which no longer features Joe Brady, still features Steve Ensminger. It was Ensminger who did a significant amount of the play-calling that got so much praise last year. Myles Brennan showed major strides in limited work last year, and he’s been earning rave reviews since the start of 2019. As long as he can hold up physically, LSU is in position to light up more scoreboards in 2020.

1. Alabama

Before you tell me this is a boring, cliché answer, hear me out.

Alabama just had its best offense in school history despite the fact that Tua Tagovailoa missed 4.5 games. Retaining Steve Sarkisian was as important as any assistant transaction in college football. No, that’s not a joke. Not enough people cared that Alabama hit 40 points in 10 of 13 games last year, or that without Tagovailoa in those final 2 games, Sarkisian’s offense averaged 40 points against a pair of top-25 defenses away from home.

I don’t care if it’s Mac Jones or Bryce Young. Whoever it is will be loaded with talent around them. Alabama returns 4 offensive players who are getting preseason All-America love. Jaylen Waddle is the slipperiest player in college football, and he’s in position for a major uptick in production without Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. DeVonta Smith AND Najee Harris coming back was a surprise, as was the return of Alex Leatherwood. That’s for a group who will add the No. 1 running back in the 2019 class, Trey Sanders, who suffered that season-ending injury last August.

As historically great as Tagovailoa was, this offense wasn’t just the result of his play. If you were paying attention to Alabama last year, you would’ve seen that.

My guess? You’ll get constant reminders of that this season.

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