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SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
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S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
S&P+ Win Odds, Expected Score Margin (Betting Odds)

#1 Alabama vs #65 Duke (Bama 97%, Bama +32.5) (Bama -32)

#2 Georgia @ #53 Vanderbilt (UGA 91%, UGA +23.0) (UGA -21)

#4 LSU vs #81 Georgia Southern (LSU 96%, LSU +29.8) (LSU -26)

#6 Florida vs #19 Miami (Florida 73%, Florida +10.7) (Florida -7.5)

#8 Auburn vs #20 Oregon (Auburn 69%, Auburn +8.8) (Auburn -2.5)

#10 Mississippi St vs #99 UL-Lafayette (MSU 95%, MSU +28.6) (MSU -23)

#13 Texas A&M vs #102 Texas St (TAMU 96%, TAMU +30.0) (TAMU -34.5)

#16 Missouri @ #92 Wyoming (Mizzou 87%, Mizzou +19.6) (Mizzou -14.5)

#18 South Carolina vs #61 North Carolina (USC 75%, USC +11.7) (USC -7.5)

#21 Tennessee vs #114 Georgia St (VOLS 96%, VOLS +30.6) (VOLS -26)

#37 Kentucky vs #78 Toledo (UK 77%, UK +12.6) (UK -13)

#39 Ole Miss @ #26 Memphis (Ole Miss 36%, Memphis +6.2) (Memphis -6)

#48 Arkansas vs 1AA Portland St (Arky 96%, +30.2) (N/A)



Kentucky/Toledo looks like a bit of a scary one early on. Obviously Ole Miss/Memphis too, but Memphis is favored aren't they?
This post was edited on 7/11 at 1:37 pm


CrabInMyShoeMouth
Arkansas Fan
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
Memphis is currently -6. Like Toledo +13.5 against KY.


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deaux
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2018
5187 posts

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
Auburn/Oregon should be a fun matchup. Will be interesting to see Herbert against an SEC defense.


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SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
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Member since Jul 2013
49549 posts
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
Biggest gap between S&P+ and odds appear to be Auburn, Mizzou and Miss State, all 3 being undervalued by the spread.

All the rest are within 3-4 points.
This post was edited on 7/11 at 1:39 pm


rockiee
Houston Astros Fan
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
20270 posts
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:


#48 Arkansas vs 1AA Portland St (Arky 96%, +30.2) (N/A)



What could go wrong



WG_Dawg
Georgia Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2004
72515 posts

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

Alabama vs Duke


still can't believe this. Shameful.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

What could go wrong


Don't worry rock Portland State doesn't have any history beating P5 schools



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NocaHomas Teepee
Atlanta Braves Fan
Nor Al
Member since May 2019
332 posts

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

#39 Ole Miss @ #26 Memphis (Ole Miss 36%, Memphis +6.2) (Memphis -6)


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50
SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
49549 posts
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

still can't believe this. Shameful.



Word to the wise, don't let the Atlanta Sports Council pick your ACC opponent. UGA knows that, though, because they did the same thing for 2020 and are stuck playing Virginia.
This post was edited on 7/11 at 1:47 pm


WG_Dawg
Georgia Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2004
72515 posts

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

don't let the Atlanta Sports Council pick your ACC opponent


what is their thought process though, like why would they even want that? You'd think they'd want as premiere matchup as they can get.

quote:

UGA knows that, though, because they did the same thing for 2020 and are stuck playing Virginia.


I'm not gonna pretend the situations are miles apart, but bama is at the stratospheric level at the moment (and for hte past decade at that) that this really is a joke, we aren't nearly there yet. UVA is also a somewhat interesting game and mendenhall has them playing fairly well. Meanwhile bama and duke have just played not long ago.


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SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

what is their thought process though, like why would they even want that? You'd think they'd want as premiere matchup as they can get.


I know it sounds elitist and snobby, but after the FSU game a few years ago I think most ACC teams (outside of Clemson) just said to hell with that. Add on that we already had Miami scheduled there for 2021 (and Louisville in 2018) and that it obviously wasn't going to be Clemson........and your pool shrinks quite a bit.

We screwed up giving agreeing to play FSU + a game that they fix for us, but that was the cost for setting up that type of game (so I'm told), and they'd always found a good opponent for us before (Clemson, Virginia Tech, West Virginia). I mean the best possible outcome was probably a NC State/Virginia Tech/random non-southern team type game, and we've already played Virginia Tech in that game 2 times in the last decade.

Thank goodness this neutral location nonsense is about to be over with.
This post was edited on 7/11 at 2:01 pm


lsutiger2
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2008
3056 posts

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
How does Alabama have a better chance of beating Duke than A&M over Texas State? Kinda don't make sense


WG_Dawg
Georgia Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2004
72515 posts

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

it obviously wasn't going to be Clemson.


why not though?


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
49549 posts
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

How does Alabama have a better chance of beating Duke than A&M over Texas State? Kinda don't make sense



The lines on the game are basically identical too. Duke is probably 17-21 pts better than Texas State and we are about 17-21 pts better than A&M.



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SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
49549 posts
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

why not though?



They already had this A&M series scheduled years ago


meansonny
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
8202 posts
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
This is no biggie.

For a decade, Bama fans blindly defended the neutral site game (not necessarily you).

But Bama is now woke. They are going for the home and homes. This type of Duke game will cycle off, and they will be challenged on the road OOC. The fans should get a better experience (both at home and on the road).

Hopefully, the prospective away game will be a good enough carrot for opponents to line up for an opportunity to play.


WG_Dawg
Georgia Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2004
72515 posts

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
wish our AD used his brain cells a little bit like that. There is one year in the 20s where we have Texas and UCLA OOC, in addition to tech. It's lunacy.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
49549 posts
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re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

For a decade, Bama fans blindly defended the neutral site game (not necessarily you).



I liked it at the beginning, but at a certain point it gets very stale.

quote:

Hopefully, the prospective away game will be a good enough carrot for opponents to line up for an opportunity to play.




Already been pretty successful - Texas, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma. Hopefully we keep adding in an interesting #2 game like we did with USF in 2023.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta Braves Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
49549 posts
 Online 

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

There is one year in the 20s where we have Texas and UCLA OOC, in addition to tech. It's lunacy.



Yea - that is pretty absurd. Those back to back seasons of 2028 and 2029 for you guys are absurd (Texas/FSU/GT then Texas/Clemson/GT).

I can't imagine that actually happens unless everybody moves to that sort of schedule by then.


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Rhino5
Atlanta Braves Fan
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2014
18483 posts

re: S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
quote:

39 Ole Miss @ #26 Memphis (Ole Miss 36%, Memphis +6.2) (Memphis -6)



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