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S&P+ Week 1 SEC Matchups
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:25 pm
S&P+ Win Odds, Expected Score Margin (Betting Odds)
#1 Alabama vs #65 Duke (Bama 97%, Bama +32.5) (Bama -32)
#2 Georgia @ #53 Vanderbilt (UGA 91%, UGA +23.0) (UGA -21)
#4 LSU vs #81 Georgia Southern (LSU 96%, LSU +29.8) (LSU -26)
#6 Florida vs #19 Miami (Florida 73%, Florida +10.7) (Florida -7.5)
#8 Auburn vs #20 Oregon (Auburn 69%, Auburn +8.8) (Auburn -2.5)
#10 Mississippi St vs #99 UL-Lafayette (MSU 95%, MSU +28.6) (MSU -23)
#13 Texas A&M vs #102 Texas St (TAMU 96%, TAMU +30.0) (TAMU -34.5)
#16 Missouri @ #92 Wyoming (Mizzou 87%, Mizzou +19.6) (Mizzou -14.5)
#18 South Carolina vs #61 North Carolina (USC 75%, USC +11.7) (USC -7.5)
#21 Tennessee vs #114 Georgia St (VOLS 96%, VOLS +30.6) (VOLS -26)
#37 Kentucky vs #78 Toledo (UK 77%, UK +12.6) (UK -13)
#39 Ole Miss @ #26 Memphis (Ole Miss 36%, Memphis +6.2) (Memphis -6)
#48 Arkansas vs 1AA Portland St (Arky 96%, +30.2) (N/A)
Kentucky/Toledo looks like a bit of a scary one early on. Obviously Ole Miss/Memphis too, but Memphis is favored aren't they?
#1 Alabama vs #65 Duke (Bama 97%, Bama +32.5) (Bama -32)
#2 Georgia @ #53 Vanderbilt (UGA 91%, UGA +23.0) (UGA -21)
#4 LSU vs #81 Georgia Southern (LSU 96%, LSU +29.8) (LSU -26)
#6 Florida vs #19 Miami (Florida 73%, Florida +10.7) (Florida -7.5)
#8 Auburn vs #20 Oregon (Auburn 69%, Auburn +8.8) (Auburn -2.5)
#10 Mississippi St vs #99 UL-Lafayette (MSU 95%, MSU +28.6) (MSU -23)
#13 Texas A&M vs #102 Texas St (TAMU 96%, TAMU +30.0) (TAMU -34.5)
#16 Missouri @ #92 Wyoming (Mizzou 87%, Mizzou +19.6) (Mizzou -14.5)
#18 South Carolina vs #61 North Carolina (USC 75%, USC +11.7) (USC -7.5)
#21 Tennessee vs #114 Georgia St (VOLS 96%, VOLS +30.6) (VOLS -26)
#37 Kentucky vs #78 Toledo (UK 77%, UK +12.6) (UK -13)
#39 Ole Miss @ #26 Memphis (Ole Miss 36%, Memphis +6.2) (Memphis -6)
#48 Arkansas vs 1AA Portland St (Arky 96%, +30.2) (N/A)
Kentucky/Toledo looks like a bit of a scary one early on. Obviously Ole Miss/Memphis too, but Memphis is favored aren't they?
This post was edited on 7/11/19 at 1:37 pm
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Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Memphis is currently -6. Like Toledo +13.5 against KY.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Auburn/Oregon should be a fun matchup. Will be interesting to see Herbert against an SEC defense.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Biggest gap between S&P+ and odds appear to be Auburn, Mizzou and Miss State, all 3 being undervalued by the spread.
All the rest are within 3-4 points.
All the rest are within 3-4 points.
This post was edited on 7/11/19 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:40 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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#48 Arkansas vs 1AA Portland St (Arky 96%, +30.2) (N/A)
What could go wrong
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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Alabama vs Duke
still can't believe this. Shameful.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:43 pm to rockiee
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What could go wrong
Don't worry rock Portland State doesn't have any history beating P5 schools
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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#39 Ole Miss @ #26 Memphis (Ole Miss 36%, Memphis +6.2) (Memphis -6)
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:46 pm to WG_Dawg
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still can't believe this. Shameful.
Word to the wise, don't let the Atlanta Sports Council pick your ACC opponent. UGA knows that, though, because they did the same thing for 2020 and are stuck playing Virginia.
This post was edited on 7/11/19 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:52 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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don't let the Atlanta Sports Council pick your ACC opponent
what is their thought process though, like why would they even want that? You'd think they'd want as premiere matchup as they can get.
quote:
UGA knows that, though, because they did the same thing for 2020 and are stuck playing Virginia.
I'm not gonna pretend the situations are miles apart, but bama is at the stratospheric level at the moment (and for hte past decade at that) that this really is a joke, we aren't nearly there yet. UVA is also a somewhat interesting game and mendenhall has them playing fairly well. Meanwhile bama and duke have just played not long ago.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 1:59 pm to WG_Dawg
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what is their thought process though, like why would they even want that? You'd think they'd want as premiere matchup as they can get.
I know it sounds elitist and snobby, but after the FSU game a few years ago I think most ACC teams (outside of Clemson) just said to hell with that. Add on that we already had Miami scheduled there for 2021 (and Louisville in 2018) and that it obviously wasn't going to be Clemson........and your pool shrinks quite a bit.
We screwed up giving agreeing to play FSU + a game that they fix for us, but that was the cost for setting up that type of game (so I'm told), and they'd always found a good opponent for us before (Clemson, Virginia Tech, West Virginia). I mean the best possible outcome was probably a NC State/Virginia Tech/random non-southern team type game, and we've already played Virginia Tech in that game 2 times in the last decade.
Thank goodness this neutral location nonsense is about to be over with.
This post was edited on 7/11/19 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
How does Alabama have a better chance of beating Duke than A&M over Texas State? Kinda don't make sense
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:04 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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it obviously wasn't going to be Clemson.
why not though?
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:06 pm to lsutiger2
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How does Alabama have a better chance of beating Duke than A&M over Texas State? Kinda don't make sense
The lines on the game are basically identical too. Duke is probably 17-21 pts better than Texas State and we are about 17-21 pts better than A&M.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:06 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
why not though?
They already had this A&M series scheduled years ago
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:10 pm to SummerOfGeorge
This is no biggie.
For a decade, Bama fans blindly defended the neutral site game (not necessarily you).
But Bama is now woke. They are going for the home and homes. This type of Duke game will cycle off, and they will be challenged on the road OOC. The fans should get a better experience (both at home and on the road).
Hopefully, the prospective away game will be a good enough carrot for opponents to line up for an opportunity to play.
For a decade, Bama fans blindly defended the neutral site game (not necessarily you).
But Bama is now woke. They are going for the home and homes. This type of Duke game will cycle off, and they will be challenged on the road OOC. The fans should get a better experience (both at home and on the road).
Hopefully, the prospective away game will be a good enough carrot for opponents to line up for an opportunity to play.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
wish our AD used his brain cells a little bit like that. There is one year in the 20s where we have Texas and UCLA OOC, in addition to tech. It's lunacy.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:12 pm to meansonny
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For a decade, Bama fans blindly defended the neutral site game (not necessarily you).
I liked it at the beginning, but at a certain point it gets very stale.
quote:
Hopefully, the prospective away game will be a good enough carrot for opponents to line up for an opportunity to play.
Already been pretty successful - Texas, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma. Hopefully we keep adding in an interesting #2 game like we did with USF in 2023.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:14 pm to WG_Dawg
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There is one year in the 20s where we have Texas and UCLA OOC, in addition to tech. It's lunacy.
Yea - that is pretty absurd. Those back to back seasons of 2028 and 2029 for you guys are absurd (Texas/FSU/GT then Texas/Clemson/GT).
I can't imagine that actually happens unless everybody moves to that sort of schedule by then.
Posted on 7/11/19 at 2:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
39 Ole Miss @ #26 Memphis (Ole Miss 36%, Memphis +6.2) (Memphis -6)
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