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Prediction for the next 10 years in CFB

Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:07 pm
Posted by Kcoyote
Member since Jan 2012
12050 posts
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:07 pm
A perfect storm of factors will contribute to a massive decrease in college football popularity over the next 10 years.

1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over.

2. Players sitting out bowl games to preserve their NFL futures. Over time the idea of playing in college as a gateway to the NFL will start to die. McKenzie Milton almost lost a leg the other week. Players notice this. Especially when...

3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
Posted by MSHawg1
Bad-assistan
Member since Jun 2018
5046 posts
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.

It's any day now. College football will go the way of college basketball if this happens. Hopefully low attendance at games for these expansion leagues will prevent too many of them from lasting.
Posted by Ted2010
Member since Oct 2010
38958 posts
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:12 pm to
4. LSU fans will still bitch about refs.
Posted by PowHound
The Peoples Moderator
Member since Jul 2014
6843 posts
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:15 pm to
I'm hearing playoff expansion is basically a done deal so there's that.
Posted by rifleer
Gods Country
Member since Nov 2018
132 posts
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:25 pm to
Alabama worried about a bidding war over players with the AAF?
Posted by PEPE
Member since Jun 2018
8198 posts
Posted on 12/13/18 at 11:38 pm to
College football is too powerful to allow the AAFL types to destroy it.

College football would adapt to be the more attractive alternative if for some reason those leagues caught on.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27296 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 12:03 am to
quote:

The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.



Yea,I'm sooooo petrified of all these "minor" leagues are gonna start "poaching" CFB players because of the VAST success of all those alternative pro FB leagues in the past.

So has the AAF flat out stated they're gonna go after HS kids?
If so,how much and what are they gonna pay/guarantee these kids?

Does ANYBODY in their right mind think these kids will get better coaching,training or have better facilities in the "minor leagues"?Are they gonna get insurance against a career ending injury like the NCAA can provide? Of course not

Flat out idiotic to think the AAF would have any type of serious impact if any on CFB
This post was edited on 12/14/18 at 12:05 am
Posted by bigDgator
Dallas, TX
Member since Oct 2008
41189 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 12:10 am to
I would love to see a minor league football become successful enough that it is purchased by the NFL. We need to clear out the kids that don't want to or shouldn't be on a college campus and also let the players who want to make money make some money.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27296 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 12:19 am to
quote:

would love to see a minor league football become successful enough that it is purchased by the NFL


Why in the world would the NFL do this?

They already have a feeder system with CFB and any "minor league" system have to subsidize by the league.

They'd be shooting themselves in the foot.
Posted by Paul B Ammer
The Mecca of Tuscaloosa
Member since Jul 2017
2423 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 4:14 am to
OP made some interesting points

1)Saban retiring. Saban is the most adaptable and trend seeing coach in college football history. But he brings eyes to TV sets because of his emphasis on the defensive side of the ball. All this spread RPO up tempo offense that is "ref-assisted" (I see you Kyler Murray) brings in marginal fans particularly women and 12 year olds in adult bodies. These are of course the first fans to leave and go on to new things. The core college football fan loves what Bama represents- a strong running game and a strong emphasis on defense. Fortunately I do not think this will change even after Saban leaves.


2) Players sitting out Bowl games. It's bad but understandable when big name players sit out bowl games. It's going to cause both Bowls and the Networks to rethink how they market these games, But the key issue will be when big name players sit out Year 3 to "concentrate on the draft". We've had players like Jadaveon Clowney who mailed in their last year on campus. But after Joey Bosa this year we will no doubt see players sitting out their last season.


3) The AAF. I have no idea about the AAF. But I assume that they will adopt the same 3 year rule that the NCAA and NFL have worked out. Will players straight out of high school risk going to a new pro league for marginal salaries and injuring their undeveloped bodies? I'm sure they will. But once people see players have their careers ended at 18 or 19, most will opt for the development and care that you get at a major college.
Posted by aujerm
North ATL burbs
Member since Oct 2016
964 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:06 am to
Plus most really good college players are already paid.
This post was edited on 12/14/18 at 7:07 am
Posted by Loserman
Member since Sep 2007
21856 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:07 am to
Even lower numbers of white players than now.

Their soccer moms are not letting them play football anymore.
Posted by UCFACTS4LIFE
Member since Sep 2018
822 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:09 am to
UCF will be dominating the SEC east



#UCFACTS
Posted by AUcarlton
North Carolina
Member since Feb 2016
86 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:09 am to
quote:

1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over.


Come on. This is not golf and Tiger.

Yes, Alabama is currently the best team in the nation. They have been the best team in the nation more times than not since Saban arrived. But to think they are somehow the sole reason there is a bunch of casual college football fans is just ignorant.

Now, you could say there are a boatload of fairweather fans that will flock to the next dynasty, but they won't just stop being college football fans altogether once Saban leaves. When Tiger retires - there absolutely will be a drop-off in golf "fans". The same cannot be said of Saban and Alabama.
Posted by MeatPants
Member since Nov 2015
8853 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:18 am to
Alabama dynasty is not bringing in casual fans to college football. That’s nonsense
Posted by Dawgholio
Bugtussle
Member since Oct 2015
13047 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:32 am to
Georgia wins 9 national championships
Posted by Paul B Ammer
The Mecca of Tuscaloosa
Member since Jul 2017
2423 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:43 am to
17 of the top 25 rated college football games since 2014 have involved Bama. Bama brings eyes to TV sets for college football.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
27296 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 7:52 am to
quote:

17 of the top 25 rated college football games since 2014 have involved Bama


And their NC game against CU was the lowest rated in the last 10 years and will be just as low if they play again.

2014? Why are we going with a 5 year window?
Posted by jumpstart
Member since Jun 2018
919 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 8:09 am to
quote:

A perfect storm of factors will contribute to a massive decrease in college football popularity over the next 10 years. 1. Saban will retire. Now most see this as a resurgence, but it's quite the opposite. Saban and Alabama are so dynastic that casual fandom in CFB will decrease pretty heavily when the ride is over. 2. Players sitting out bowl games to preserve their NFL futures. Over time the idea of playing in college as a gateway to the NFL will start to die. McKenzie Milton almost lost a leg the other week. Players notice this. Especially when... 3. The rise of the minor leagues like the AAF. Soon they will start poaching college kids who want to actually make money while risking their futures instead of being left out to dry if they get injured in college.
I will argue that the landscape will change in a dramatic way. If you have looked at VR technology you would see where it is going. I have a VR system and the NextVR app allows you to watch sporting events in live time. It gives you an "on the field or on the court presence that is second to none. People are going to watch games in a "pay per view" and have the experience of being there, while sitting at home. It will not be a substitute for being there live, but it's the next big thing for an avid fan in another part of the country. It will be a revenue package that will increase the fan bases...college, high school and pro teams will benefit. IMO...your argument eliminates the "prove your worth" process that the pros need from a college athlete.
This post was edited on 12/14/18 at 8:11 am
Posted by Paul B Ammer
The Mecca of Tuscaloosa
Member since Jul 2017
2423 posts
Posted on 12/14/18 at 8:40 am to
quote:

2014? Why are we going with a 5 year window?


Playoff era, baw.

Plus I didn't have time to look up all the ratings for the Saban era. Also was trying to get Lady Ammer to give me an early X-mas present...
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